Recent events in
Texas and discussion on another
thread got me wondering about Ireland's situation. How prepared are we as a country for a coup d'etat or a police action akin to Operation Just Cause or Grenada to topple our government and seize control? We are already considered the "bad boy" of Europe, having been a nightmare in the Euro crisis, voting no to treaties and generally being at odds with the wider European community. How long until we are "brought into line" by the EU? And what could we even hope to do about it?
We have less than 10,000 professional soldiers with usually the best-equipped and trained units deployed abroad with the UN. Similarly our Naval Service is scattered with our flagship currently assigned to the Mediterranean. Our reserves are a mixed bag of gun nuts and lads in it for the cheap drink. The Gardai are mostly unarmed and unexperienced with handling firearms.
Were such an operation to be mounted, striking at the Curragh, Haulbowline and Baldonnell would have the majority of our striking power neutralised. A division or two of mechanised infantry with armour support could easily crush our dispersed brigades. Any conventional war is a forgone conclusion. Bear in mind that we do not have control of our airspace and already allow military flights through the country, any of which could easily disgorge a couple of battalions of hardened infantry with ease. We also share a land border with a regional power that could provide access for heavier units.
The initial part isn't that hard to imagine, we've seen it in Grenada, Panama, the Falklands, Aden, Malaya, it's what happens after that will scare us.
What I'm curious is about the aftermath, placing the country under martial law and establishing control. How could we maintain resistance considering we primarily are an unarmed population, trusting to our government to protect us. Would such an occupation be accepted or would civil disobedience and struggle become widespread?
The nightmare scenario sees our security forces operate as quislings and pathfinders for the main occupation force but even in the best-case scenario, I believe things would be grim for the people of Ireland.
Our rugged and wild landscape gives ample locations for the siting of internment camps and we operate a strategic location that could become important for EU/NATO control of the Atlantic. It's the people that could be the issue.
