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August weather ONLY MOD NOTE : #213

Kenring

I see I have been allowed to finally post here after being banned for a year for being unconventional in my methods. I thank whoever has made that possible. It appears my methods upset some but they are not intended to be evil, and I write only for those interested in making use of them. I am not funded by any government so am not a drain on any taxpayer, and therefore I should threaten no one. I do make a living from forecasting but so do many in Met Eireann and the media and no one minds. I happen to have alternative viewpoints and in dealing in longrange forecasts cannot be orthodox as there is no technology designed for it. But if history is anything to go by I fully expect to be thrown out again of this forum for daring to post predictions, which are only opinions and suggestions based on the solid science of the orbits of moon and sun. It is not astrology and I have never been an astrologer. Nothing is certain and my predictions carry a leeway of 1-3 days and up to 80km radius error/applicability, same as any other forecasting.

As for August, here are some extracts from my 2013 Ireland almanac.
August is a mainly dry and summery, with some more hot days expected.
Altogether there may be less than a handful of wet days for any one county.
The month starts wet on the 1st/2nd, then dries for a few days, followed by overnight showers 6th-10th, mostly dry 12th-20th, brief rain around 21st-22nd, and then mostly dry for the remainder of the month.
The southwest, particularly Limerick, may be the wettest county, and Louth may be driest.
For temperatures, the whole month should stay in the 20s, with some very warm days around 7th, 21st and 29th-31st.

I welcome other predictions based on other methods. I feel it is what a forum should be.
cheers to all.

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Kenring

CJC999 wrote: »

I meant MTC and the other amateur forecasters not that MTC was an amateur.

People choose things of their own volition. If a person is passionate about a hobby he will excel in it and clientele will arrive because of his success. Rather, if a person sets himself up in business it should be an indication he has had enough success to date that his work is consistently reliable. In the real world, for a service or mechanical advice wouldn't someone take their expensive car to a professional rather than to an amateur?

jdsk2006

Kenring wrote: »

I never change a forecast when I set it down, it is fixed in concrete like the tide tables. Perhaps Met Eireann are better suited for short term forecasts because my work is basically about trends. My wet spells are 1st-2nd and 6th-10th in the first half of August. For 1st-2nd a cold front brings scattered cloud and some isolated to light showers through most districts, although the southeast is expected to be mainly fine and dry. From my point of view the driest up until the 5th should be Kilkenny in Leinster; and Tralee, Killarney and Cork in Munster. I hope that helps.

Yes i understand. We had origionally had our sights on southeast. Ok well thank you for ypur reply

shamrock55

Hi ken, can we expect any spells of good sunshine and high temps in august like we had in the first few wks in july?(in cork)

Lucreto

I might have missed it but any Winter forecast?

Kenring

jdsk2006 wrote: »

Yes i understand. We had origionally had our sights on southeast. Ok well thank you for ypur reply

Yes, just remember that weather is general to about an 50-80km radius as the crow flies. You can't narrow it down much closer than that. Same goes for Met Eireann.

Kenring

shamrock55 wrote: »

Hi ken, can we expect any spells of good sunshine and high temps in august like we had in the first few wks in july?(in cork)

Yes, particularly third and last weeks in August. Most of August should be in the 20s for temperatures.

Kenring

Lucreto wrote: »

I might have missed it but any Winter forecast?

Of course but that would be off topic.

Popoutman

Kenring wrote: »

No Popoutman, as you can see here there is one rule for me and another for the rest. I would either be disqualified because I use the moon, or because someone thinks I am an astrologer or a fortuneteller, or that I once got a week wrong 10 years ago so therefore I must be a conman. There is already rancour because I make a living from forecasts, whereas Met Eireann staff and weather anchors and media columnists who also make a similar living seem good guys. I can't even give out free forecasts here without there being, for some, something wrong or evil about that too. So why should I waste time entering a competition? It is not a level playing field here.

Quite simple - as that forecast thread is only about the numbers, the numbers mean a level playing field in that thread. There's no fudging about, it's quite simple to state the expected numbers. It's actually the most level playing field you'll find on here. I really doubt anyone would worry about the "legality" of your entry - after all it's all for fun there, and no-one cares what methodology the guessers use for their numbers. Just enter for the craic and see how you do.

Why not use your best guess to give numbers to your forecast specifically for that thread.

Note that I have not claimed anything about the validity or lack thereof with your methods, nor have I raised any questions about whether you would be disqualified. I have my own reservations about the accuracy and methodology in use but this thread is not the topic for them. I'm trying to stay as even and impartial as possible with my suggestions and responses, so I would appreciate not including me in what you are suggesting in your response to me. You'd do better in not rising to the bait and being a little less defensive. If you've been wrong in the past, accept it and move on.

But seriously do give a set of numbers for that thread. It'll be interesting if nothing else.

Kenring

Popoutman wrote: »

Quite simple - as that forecast thread is only about the numbers, the numbers mean a level playing field in that thread. There's no fudging about, it's quite simple to state the expected numbers. It's actually the most level playing field you'll find on here. I really doubt anyone would worry about the "legality" of your entry - after all it's all for fun there, and no-one cares what methodology the guessers use for their numbers. Just enter for the craic and see how you do.

Why not use your best guess to give numbers to your forecast specifically for that thread.

Note that I have not claimed anything about the validity or lack thereof with your methods, nor have I raised any questions about whether you would be disqualified. I have my own reservations about the accuracy and methodology in use but this thread is not the topic for them. I'm trying to stay as even and impartial as possible with my suggestions and responses, so I would appreciate not including me in what you are suggesting in your response to me. You'd do better in not rising to the bait and being a little less defensive. If you've been wrong in the past, accept it and move on.

But seriously do give a set of numbers for that thread. It'll be interesting if nothing else.

Thanks, but I have no reason to "prove" myself in any way so I think I'll decline. However I do appreciate the invitation because it demonstrates interest in my work. My predictions are posted here anyway, so anyone interested can freely view them, even copy them if it will give them advantage in the competition. cheers

ch750536

It's never going to work with Ken on this site, which saddens me. Not due to Ken (I only had an issue with his selling on this site) but for the complete lack of tolerance from others. You are not condoning him by not personally attacking him. Let his forecasts do the talking but fairly, as you would anyone else on this site.
If for nothing more than something to smile at in the wet & windy August.

Kenring

ch750536 wrote: »

It's never going to work with Ken on this site, which saddens me. Not due to Ken (I only had an issue with his selling on this site) but for the complete lack of tolerance from others. Let his forecasts do the talking but fairly, as you would anyone else on this site.
If for nothing more than something to smile at in the wet & windy August.

It is usually the case that people attack when they feel threatened. This is for the attackers to address, and it has nothing to do with my forecasts. Neither has it anything to do with lunar methodology because other forecasters here also use it.

Conmaicne Mara

This is all getting a bit old now. I thought this was the weather forum not the sniping & bitching forum.

JM Skipton

Can somebody set up a "ken Ring" thread if they want to discuss him, I personally am more interested in finding out about "August weather" as the thread suggests

Monkaa

Right guys, what way is it looking for this Saturday? Putting on a garden party! I just want it to be dry, don't mind if its cool, over cast etc...so bring me good news

Kenring

JM Skipton wrote: »

Can somebody set up a "ken Ring" thread if they want to discuss him, I personally am more interested in finding out about "August weather" as the thread suggests

Me too. That's the title I posted. It's up to mods to keep it on topic.

vicwatson

Kenring wrote: »

Me too. That's the title I posted. It's up to mods to keep it on topic.

I say its up to posters to keep it on topic

weisses

SeaFields wrote: »

A section of the Ring of Kerry between Glenbeigh and Cahersiveen is closed this evening after a landslide due to torrential rain.

Yeah and we got sunshine the whole day with a nice bbq to finish .... so he was right as far as I'm concerned ...

OU812

Just leaving the house in north Dublin for a family picnic.

Skies just opened with thunder & monsoon rain.

Is it worth out while going?

mitresize5

Move on from the Ken thing already!!!

So the biggest bank holiday of the summer is this weekend. Do I pack my factor 20 or my rain jacket for my trip to West Clare (or both)

MTC - seems to be a bit more hopeful that Met Eireann - both noncommittal but MTC leaning to a moer positive out look

Whats the story

Kenring

mitresize5 wrote: »

Move on from the Ken thing already!!!

So the biggest bank holiday of the summer is this weekend. Do I pack my factor 20 or my rain jacket for my trip to West Clare (or both)

MTC - seems to be a bit more hopeful that Met Eireann - both noncommittal but MTC leaning to a moer positive out look

Whats the story

Well, I could answer but it doesn't sound as if you want my opinion.

Davaeo09

Kenring wrote: »

Well, I could answer but it doesn't sound as if you want my opinion.

Why would he post if he didn't? Or does he need to submit he's question to you in pdf form? :P

Kenring

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Why would he post if he didn't? Or does he need to submit he's question to you in pdf form? :P

Well, because he said "move on from the ken thing already". I'm not sure if that meant moving on from my postings. I suggest from now on it would make better sense if requests for particular dates were sent to my email ken@predictweather.com
That way there would be no need for unpleasantness when I make a recommendation. We have already seen what happened when I responded to the request for the next 6 days.

Davaeo09

I was joking

Doff

Ken, will we be getting snow this Christmas? Thinking of proposing to the missus and want it to be romantic and ****.

mitresize5

Kenring wrote: »

Well, I could answer but it doesn't sound as if you want my opinion.

sweet Jesus - paranoia now as well in this thread

I asked for peoples opinion and .....

actually don't bother - could some one just PM me when this thread starts talking about the weather again. Cheers

Kenring

mitresize5 wrote: »

sweet Jesus - paranoia now as well in this thread

I asked for peoples opinion and .....

actually don't bother - could some one just PM me when this thread starts talking about the weather again. Cheers

No, it's not good enough. If posters have to take charge then I will do so. I'm sick of the negatives and no one is moderating to keep the thread well-mannered. I don't have to come on here, I did so to be helpful. My offer stands, email me privately if you really wish to know, otherwise I'm inclined to think requests are just entrapments to stitch me up. If I notice the thread improving then maybe I'll reconsider things. cheers

Monkaa

Seen as Im getting no where with my weather question in the August thread due to the bickering going on I thought Id start a new thread...Im holding a garden party this Saturday in Dublin so was wondering what the verdict is for this weekends weather? Thanking you

pistolpetes11

Rite folks , discuss the weather and that is all. Open a thread on ken's methods if you wish to discuss them ,

Infractions / bans from here on in

mitresize5

So the biggest bank holiday of the summer is this weekend. Do I pack my factor 20 or my rain jacket for my trip to West Clare (or both)

MTC - seems to be a bit more hopeful that Met Eireann - both noncommittal but MTC leaning to a moer positive out look

Whats the story :-) :-)

pistolpetes11

Ive merged a few threads into this one as there all on the same topic "Augusts Weather"