LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!RAMPING THREADMod Note #1193#2705

MUSEIST · 16-01-2013 11:07pm

I WANT snow.

I DEMAND snow.

I WILL HAVE snow.

Dead_Rabbits · 16-01-2013 11:07pm

GFS keeps with the trend of a bit of height into Greenland lets hope that continues.

byrnecontrol · 16-01-2013 11:08pm

RTE +1

JanuarySnowstor · 16-01-2013 11:08pm

At 114hrs, we all breathe a sigh of relief
The rest of the run should be awesome!!

maquiladora · 16-01-2013 11:09pm

GFS isn't following the ECM this time. Scandi high has sunk south even earlier.

Mr Cumulonimbus · 16-01-2013 11:10pm

Those minus 8 uppers are well out into the Atlantic (coming from the West) at +114.

Creeping towards the other models at 120 and 126? Low developing, even if its not a big a feature as on the ECM.

maquiladora · 16-01-2013 11:13pm

NAE 42 hours. Rain turning to snow across the border in east Donegal.

ninebeanrows · 16-01-2013 11:14pm

Solid NAE and GFS tonight.

Lets hope for continued westwards shift tomorrow

JanuarySnowstor · 16-01-2013 11:14pm

18z going off on one quite early
I mean for heaven's sake it gives the Uk's snowfall almost entirely to Cork :-)

Deank · 16-01-2013 11:15pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

18z going off on one quite early
I mean for heaven's sake it gives the Uk's snowfall almost entirely to Cork :-)

Don't let Leahyl hear that:eek:

munsterlegend · 16-01-2013 11:17pm

Deank wrote: »

Don't let Leahyl hear that:eek:

Always lurking that one...

maquiladora · 16-01-2013 11:17pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

At 114hrs, we all breathe a sigh of relief
The rest of the run should be awesome!!

Scandi high has sunk and it only sent a very small low southeast.

Have a look at the 12Z ECM again....

18Z GFS is good for Ireland in the short term but its crap after that.

JanuarySnowstor · 16-01-2013 11:18pm

Ouch the 18z continues to short live the cold
Not good!!

Come back Gerry all is forgiven

del88 · 16-01-2013 11:18pm

Is it going to snow...... I've tried to decipher your meteorological code but alas i have failed....Is it going to snow????

dacogawa · 16-01-2013 11:18pm

I wish I believed in anything above 48 hours, I'd take the 78 & 84 GFS

Mr Cumulonimbus · 16-01-2013 11:20pm

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Creeping towards the other models at 120 and 126? Low developing, even if its not a big a feature as on the ECM.

Which fizzles out by +138. And the Azores High is nudging a ridge towards us at +144. The GFS is having none of this model consensus mallarkey is it?

Dead_Rabbits · 16-01-2013 11:21pm

del88 wrote: »

Is it going to snow...... I've tried to decipher your meteorological code but alas i have failed....Is it going to snow????

BEASTERLY · 16-01-2013 11:22pm

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Which fizzles out by +138. And the Azores High is nudging a ridge towards us at +144. The GFS is having none of this model consensus mallarkey is it?

All a bit familiar isnt it!?

JanuarySnowstor · 16-01-2013 11:22pm

Well if you have Ian Brown saying bin it over on N-W that's a good sign
See you all in the morning

maquiladora · 16-01-2013 11:22pm

NAE. 48 hours. Snow getting a bit futher into Donegal. No snow south of Ulster by this point (6pm), just rain, but looks like it would pivot in there later in the night if this went beyond 48 hours. A positive NAE run. Should be interesting in the moring.

MUSEIST · 16-01-2013 11:23pm

del88 wrote: »

Is it going to snow...... I've tried to decipher your meteorological code but alas i have failed....Is it going to snow????

Yes, 100% it is going to snow...............but I can't tell you exactly where on the planet it will occur, sry

Dead_Rabbits · 16-01-2013 11:25pm

Defiantly an improvement for the West this evening, lets hope the UKMO lust for snow is vain and we can get first dibs! Another 48 hours and still wiggle room left!!

Eastcoastryan · 16-01-2013 11:28pm

Anybody have access to the latest fax charts, how is Saturday and Sunday looking?

pistolpetes11 · 16-01-2013 11:29pm

The only thing I will say on the GFS folks ,

When none of the charts were showing anything really interesting , The GFS stuck to its guns

Slowly all the others jumped on board,

When they did the GFS jumped off ,

It has since come back but I would not discount what its saying now as it backs away again, but I do think the orientation of the low is very wrong myself , and all the other models are against it

maquiladora · 16-01-2013 11:30pm

18Z NAE showing -7 & -8 uppers reaching N.I. in 48 hours.
18Z GFS has -3 uppers there at 48 hours.

Hi res models like the NAE will be really important as we get closer to potential rain/snow 'events'.

Deep Easterly · 16-01-2013 11:30pm

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Anybody have access to the latest fax charts, how is Saturday and Sunday looking?

Here,

24hr 36hr 48hr 60hr 72hr 84hr 96hr 120hr

Just to point out that the 96 and 120 hr charts only update once a day and at around this time. Earlier charts update at around 6.30am and 6.30pm each day.

BEASTERLY · 16-01-2013 11:32pm

cherryghost wrote: »

Never take the 18z too seriously.

The 12z was worse, in the long run!

Also Id like to see the verification stats of the 12z vs 18z. Im sure the 12z has some better stats but I doubt its very dramatic. Not enough to say 'ignore the 18z'.

Scubadevils · 16-01-2013 11:33pm

Must be somewhat of a record amount viewing here?!

maquiladora · 16-01-2013 11:35pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The 12z was worse, in the long run!

Also Id like to see the verification stats of the 12z vs 18z. Im sure the 12z has some better stats but I doubt its very dramatic. Not enough to say 'ignore the 18z'.

99 red balloons.

For the GFS, look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

icesnowfrost · 16-01-2013 11:39pm

Anyone catch the 9 news/weather wat was said

BEASTERLY · 16-01-2013 11:39pm

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/

Evidence suggest no noticeable accuracy difference between 00z/12z and 06z/18z. Also the notion that the 06z//18z has less data input it more myth than fact. 3rd post in that thread.

BEASTERLY · 16-01-2013 11:45pm

maquiladora wrote: »

99 red balloons.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

Check the link I gave above. Seems the less data story is a myth more than fact. In the long run, no real difference in verification stats.

ninebeanrows · 16-01-2013 11:46pm

we will set up an 'event' thread if the morning models warrant one.

Snowy dreams to all.

derekon · 16-01-2013 11:48pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

we will set up an 'event' thread if the morning models warrant one.

Snowy dreams to all.

That sounds great Weathercheck - the alternative will be "Britannia gets the snow, Hibernia the rain, as usual"

I am hoping for the "event" thread

D

icesnowfrost · 16-01-2013 11:48pm

So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?

Sibehusk · 16-01-2013 11:49pm

Bishop_Donal wrote: »

You know you've reached your wits end when you're shouting 'You Fcuking Liar' at Gerry Murphy at 9:31 p.m. on a Weds night. The wife even had to come in to tell me to calm down.

I'm going to have to go for therapy soon.

He didn't even say Sleet.He had it on the summary chart for Sunday, and he wouldn't even say the word.

Pmsl. I was the same.

maquiladora · 16-01-2013 11:52pm

icesnowfrost wrote: »

So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?

It's Wednesday. There's no need for them to talk about the weekend forecast on TV yet. It's a marginal situation with changes on the models every 12 hours.

jo06555 · 17-01-2013 12:02am

icesnowfrost wrote: »

So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?

Met office dont see us getting anything either but all of uk on friday to get it

disaster ..... bbc link too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i08De9-lPcE&feature=youtube_gdata_player ??????

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 12:05am

Ensemble mean for t78. Nice.

FWVT · 17-01-2013 12:12am

ME have been spot on all week. As the usual rampers have been on here chasing their tails, ME have been generating accurate forecasts. Forecasts that have not been what people wanted to hear but their job is not to please a pack of snowbunnies on a discussion board but to say it as it is. There is time enough to mention snow tomorrow if and when the chances grow to more than the current remote.

People need to grow up a little. Many are dillusional to think that they know more than a national weather service and that members of this service may change their forecasts based on what is posted by some on here. ECMWF members also have access to 06 and 18Z ECMWF model runs at 1-hr steps out to 90 hours. They have a plethora of extra parameters in all the models, many more than are available to us, plus experience, so I think they know what they're doing.

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 12:16am

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Going by the present models (except GFS) I would not rule out a wintry weekend with snow.

Actually the GFS is the coldest and snowiest of the big 3 for the weekend.

davidsr20 · 17-01-2013 12:17am

Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?
What time is the next run out?

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 12:19am

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?

When it happens.

Tornando9 · 17-01-2013 12:19am

100% certainty of the outcome on Monday.

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?

Speak Now · 17-01-2013 12:22am

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

This is the thing, met eireann have been wrong time and again. They have changed their forecasts consistently, I could show you quote from few days ago saying snow accumulations in the east and north easy for Tuesday night and today. They just change their mind day before. Their forecast beyond a day or two have been consistently off.

In fairness, weather models have been so erratic but changing forecast every day doesn't exactly count as correct forecasting!!

Forecasting by its nature will always be inaccuarte to some degree. Since someone got carried away with forecasting snow 1 week in advance they've been fairly spot on in fairness. Definitely the best forecast your gonna get for this island.

Blizzard 2010 · 17-01-2013 12:25am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Actually the GFS is the coldest and snowiest of the big 3 for the weekend.

Which GFS

Speak Now · 17-01-2013 12:31am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/

Evidence suggest no noticeable accuracy difference between 00z/12z and 06z/18z. Also the notion that the 06z//18z has less data input it more myth than fact. 3rd post in that thread.

Cheers Beasterly, so both ECM runs are more accuarte than all GFS runs

No shock there.

Deep Easterly · 17-01-2013 12:33am

Maybe a bigger concern for Friday is the potential for some flooding? looks like a fair bit of rain could fall over what is a basically a very saturated country at this point. This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.

Graupel · 17-01-2013 12:33am

At least the GFS developed the low this time it was nowhere to be seen on the 12z, To me thats a step in the right direction. I wasnt expecting any sort of a backtrack from the GFS till morning so happy enough.

Morning should be fun

oterra · 17-01-2013 12:35am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.

Tell me about it, de wife hasn't stopped goin on about it all week!!!:eek:

LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Comments

LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!RAMPING THREADMod Note #1193#2705