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SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (Watch 2012-2013)

Redsunset

Hi there folks and welcome once again to the Stratosphere thread.

What the ??????

Some new people on here might already be lost but here are some links to get you up to date.
The previous threads on this explain in great detail.
This next link gives a good place to read first.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056438481

Current temp showing a dive at 30mb and usually not good as this helps the polar vortex to gain strength. Not what we want to see but it's so early in the season that any wave breaking of warmer temperature can reverse it fairly quickly and has history has shown, actually caused a SSW soon after.

The Strat westerly wind is not influencing much at the moment as can be seen below. There is still a fair amount of reduced west zonal wind in lower atmosphere fighting its progress.

Negative Quasi Biennial Oscillation is seen over equator (blue) 30mb

Just getting thread up and running for now. More to be added.

It's early doors yet and other members can and have contributed greatly in the past so please keep it going.

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andrioolis

hi guys,
i was following these post for a while just trying to understand are we expecting something big to come around the Ireland in the dropping temperature meaning???? Baltic states are getting -25 for xmas... can we expect @ least -10 in coming January in Ireland???

whitebriar

andrioolis wrote: »

hi guys,
i was following these post for a while just trying to understand are we expecting something big to come around the Ireland in the dropping temperature meaning???? Baltic states are getting -25 for xmas... can we expect @ least -10 in coming January in Ireland???

In simple terms,the warming could enhance Atlantic blocking meaning we import our weather from the Ne or East.
But its by no means certain.

Redsunset

Bit of a ramp here but I think we're staring down the barrel of a loaded gun.

Stratosphere wise things are beginning to heat up (pardon the pun).
Lower Stratosphere conditions at 240hrs

Remember that Stratosphere modeling is far more reliable than tropospheric.

Most of the troposphere vortex is around Siberian quarters and at 240hrs the current Ecm begins to show the makings of some blocking in the correct place as we near year end and welcome a new.

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There could be serious Stratosphere polar vortex displacement during January and so provided the set up is playing ball then we could be in the freezer sooner than we think.

I'm away a lot lately so will try update when I get time. Perhaps the usual suspects could keep updating. Cheers.

Capillatus

While models always seem to show snow scenarios and then removing them or just keeping them in the future forever, the stratosphere is a different story. The general idea with the warming and the polar vortex disposition remains more all less the same, with minimal "away moving".

The latest runs are basically already carving out the "R.I.P Polar Vortex" tombstone, or at least for its influence, hinting at a possible "official" SSW event around January 10th.

ECMWF is also picking up the warming in the mid and upper strat. and will possibly continue to do so as the "main events" move closer to the 240h time frame. And with the wave1 picking up the pace again throughout the whole 0-10 day timeframe, the vortex already began its displacement mode.

The forecasted sounding for the point where EC has Tmax at 10mb at 192h. You can see the the warm air intrusion fairly good in the mid and more the upper strat.

With the High strengthening and putting more pressure on the Polar Vortex, along with the warm air intrusion, the wind forecasted beyond 300h, shows a zonal reversal over the pole.

So basically, quite a clash forming above our heads.

It is too far away to start speculating on possible effects on the troposphere and the winter in Europe.

I apologise for not posting here so often. I have noticed that many of you are keeping an eye on the netweather.tv SSW thread, so you can also find my posts there (@Recretos).

Best regards.

BEASTERLY

Thanks for the update, I've been keeping an eye on the Netweather some very good discussion going on. What would the usual time delay be for effects to start showing in the troposphere? Is the level of warming forecast unusual? Or would it be something seen during many winters?

Capillatus

Well, given the composite by Reichler, the "average" delay would be around 10-15 days from upper strat. down to the upper and mid troposphere. This is an average value, so I think there could be a 5 day deviation from this mean.

About the warming, I would say that its not really off the scale. Its in the "normal" SSW values.

I was playing around with the reanalysis tools and I made an analog of January 500mb anomaly with conditions: Dec/Jan 30mb CW (Canadian Warming) in an east QBO and a Polar vortex disposition in December. Basically something similar that we are going to go through now.

Its hard to say what exactly is going to happen in the troposphere if the warming comes to fruition with the current forecasted intensity and dynamics. We have to wait first for the charts that are now in the 300h+ range, to come under 192h, so we determine the exact type of the possible SSW and to start looking in the past for similar events, besides looking at the model feedback when it tries to pick up the downwelling into the troposphere. So lets give it some time first to see how it shapes up.

Best regards.

Luisport

Hi everyone, this is my first post here! A portuguese forecaster say that we will see a polar vortex collapse in the first 10 days of January. What do you think about this? I don't understand nothing of it yet, so what could happen if this massive event take place? Thank you everyone for all this information posted here!

whitebriar

Luisport wrote: »

Hi everyone, this is my first post here! A portuguese forecaster say that we will see a polar vortex collapse in the first 10 days of January. What do you think about this? I don't understand nothing of it yet, so what could happen if this massive event take place? Thank you everyone for all this information posted here!

Depends on where it collapsed.
Down into Canada or even Russia wouldn't be much use here.
In 2010 it broke and fell down into the north sea and the rest as they say is history.
That usually replaces behind with high pressure that if as can happen (and did in Nov Dec 2010) it links mid Atlantic with another high..then your winds turn north and north east advecting very icy air to us.

Thats as layman as I can describe.

That said,Portuguese man has no way of knowing what's to happen in chaos theory, so if right he's a lucky guesser.

In this thread,we're discussing a possible warming of the upper atmosphere in polar regions that could cause another 2010 as described.
Could but so many variables,we just don't know.
These things have a nasty habit of bringing snow to Athens rather than Dublin mostly.

Hope that helps

Luisport

whitebriar wrote: »

Depends on where it collapsed.
Down into Canada or even Russia wouldn't be much use here.
In 2010 it broke and fell down into the north sea and the rest as they say is history.
That usually replaces behind with high pressure that if as can happen (and did in Nov Dec 2010) it links mid Atlantic with another high..then your winds turn north and north east advecting very icy air to us.

Thats as layman as I can describe.

That said,Portuguese man has no way of knowing what's to happen in chaos theory, so if right he's a lucky guesser.

In this thread,we're discussing a possible warming of the upper atmosphere in polar regions that could cause another 2010 as described.
Could but so many variables,we just don't know.
These things have a nasty habit of bringing snow to Athens rather than Dublin mostly.

Hope that helps

Thank you so much! I'm following this ia portuguese forum, here is the link: http://www.meteopt.com/forum/seguimento-meteorologico/seg-previsao-do-tempo-modelos-dezembro-2012-a-6836-17.html#post356341

Luisport

By the way, if a collapse happen, what can we expect, for how long and how fast it happen?

whitebriar

Luisport wrote: »

By the way, if a collapse happen, what can we expect, for how long and how fast it happen?

Bear in mind those Portuguese guys need different positions from everything for very rare(much rarer than us) cold to get to them
Also the highs aligning the wrong way could actually mean warmer weather steering in southerlies-chaos theory is weather.

Longest living memory cold snap arising out of a scandi high would be 1947 ie 6 to 8 weeks on and off.
Longer than 2 weeks would be an unusual in an unusual.

No idea on timing for what's discussed here.Going on mt craniums winter forecast,I'd guess near February alas if at all.

Luisport

whitebriar wrote: »

Bear in mind those Portuguese guys need different positions from everything for very rare(much rarer than us) cold to get to them
Also the highs aligning the wrong way could actually mean warmer weather steering in southerlies-chaos theory is weather.

Longest living memory cold snap arising out of a scandi high would be 1947 ie 6 to 8 weeks on and off.
Longer than 2 weeks would be an unusual in an unusual.

No idea on timing for what's discussed here.Going on mt craniums winter forecast,I'd guess near February alas if at all.

well i'm a bit more confused, but i think it's normal... so we can get more warmer with a polar vortex collapse? I thought the it will bring polar temp to lower latitudes.

Luisport

How is the situation of polar vortex now? Any development? Thank's!

whitebriar

Luisport wrote: »

How is the situation of polar vortex now? Any development? Thank's!

Theres a good updated discussion on it over on netweather.tv

whitebriar

Luisport wrote: »

Thank you but can you post the link? i can't find it...:o

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/page__st__1480#entry2457066

Blizzard 2010

Looks like we will have a SSW in the next forthnight, While nothing is gaurenteed hopefully we wont have another false dawn as we did earlier this month:)

Luisport

Sunday, December 30, 2012Significant Cold Ahead For January-February
By Andrew at 11:58 AM
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/2012/12/significant-cold-ahead-for-january.html

Luisport

And while on the topic of cold and snow, the GFS and ECMWF models show significant stratospheric warming across the North Pole and Canada towards the middle of January. With the NAO expected to fall rapidly at that time, and with the AO expected to rise rapidly at that time, it's about to get very cold for many across the United States. The split & temporary collapse of the polar vortex we've seen in recent years has been interesting.. Considering it tends to happen after solstice, one of these years it's not going to set back up for the rest of winter. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2319#yourcomment

BEASTERLY

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Looks like we will have a SSW in the next forthnight, While nothing is gaurenteed hopefully we wont have another false dawn as we did earlier this month:)

SSW currently forecast for 6 days time, has been a consistent forecast for a while now.

Luisport

Posted 19 minutes ago

Interesting to note the tropospheric polar vortex at d16 shifts from Siberia into Sapporo!

Insane conditions over northern Japan ! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012123012/gfsnh-13-384.png?12 http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/page__st__1640

Luisport

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XH6RitqNJro

Luisport

current warming in progress http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=150775

Luisport

2013Could The Polar Vortex Collapse Like January 1985?
By Andrew at 11:55 AM http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/2013/01/could-polar-vortex-collapse-like.html

Blizzard 2010

This SSW maybe on the same line as the SSW that occured in January 2009. Looks like it maybe the third and fourth week before we see anything that is if it occurs in the right place.

pistolpetes11

Matt Hugo seems happy with tonights outputs

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Just using latest GFS model, thought it might be of worth to highlight what it's showing for the stratosphere...

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
12Z GFS ENS for the AO really take it -ve now from 12th/13th as the signal for high pressure develops over N latitudes.

12Z GFS ENS 5 day avg 2m temp anom chart between 14-19th has most of the UK below average temp wise now. Cooling trend.

Another noteworthy GFS ENS 500mb height anom chart between 14th-18th with higher than avg pressure to the N and NW

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Incredible conditions in the stratosphere right now. Temps at 10hPa <-80C N of the UK, yet are near +10C over Russia!

Redsunset

SSW forecast.
10hpa Zonal Wind dips below negative at 60n

The warming should filter down more to spike the 30mb chart.

A view of expected time lag. Note that depending on type of strat event, things can change fairly quickly and don't necessarily need the 3 week lag.

By the way anyone saying that this won't give us any cold is just guessing. We have no idea yet what will happen even when the actual event takes place. All models will chopping and changing until they figure out where to send the polar vortices energy. It is fairly possible we miss out on anything worth shouting about but to say nothing will happen at this stage is just being silly.

Jaffusmaximus

Redsunset wrote: »

SSW forecast.
10hpa Zonal Wind dips below negative at 60n

The warming should filter down more to spike the 30mb chart.

By the way anyone saying that this won't give us any cold is just guessing. We have no idea yet what will happen even when the actual event takes place. All models will chopping and changing until they figure out where to send the polar vortices energy. It is fairly possible we miss out on anything worth shouting about but to say nothing will happen at the stage is just being silly.

Here is a good quote over on NW by Ian Ferguson regarding reading to much into models pre strat warming be it mild/cold ramping!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75444-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-12z-030113/page__st__20#entry2462809

Redsunset

Ah brilliant I'm glad that some folk are talking sense and to have them guys preach it is saying it all really. We will just have to wait until the effects filter down to trop levels so models can finally start piecing the parts of puzzle together.

Redsunset

I want to congratulate the stratosphere on its hard fought SSW.

Now time to monitor next graphics with interest to see how much propagation we get.
First up is temp anomalies. We can already see the warming starting to filter down

Next up is Zonal wind anomalies. Negative fairly prominent so far and coming down well.
It's all to play for folks. If/when those stronger easterlies interact with the troposphere all models will change so anything there showing now for the long term is just rubbish. Bin them.
Whoever comes off the better of this I say well done. It's all just very fascinating to follow.