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Good article by Wes O'Donnell would suggest otherwise outlining what he says are four likely scenarios.
TLDR; Putins legacy - Dont expect serious change for the better.
https://archive.ph/u3LD6
I've been wondering why Ukraine hasn't been going after the shadow fleet….good to see these vessels hopefully being promoted to submarines
The world’s response is pathetic.
For real peace to have any chance I suspect an irreversible change of leadership personnel will have to occur in Moscow.
If you can just transfer all your money into my bank account it would save the trouble of me having to steal it from you - it's the same as the logic you are using with Russia's invasion of Ukraine - it's a totally ludicrous proposition.
Very concerning.
For the Russians.
Very unique talking points, very fresh takes.
It's Ursula Von Der Leyen and Europe sacrificing Ukraine's men, as if Ukraine has zero agency on its own defence.
Russia could only lose via a multi-decade conflict.
Fighting on is a dangeorus gamble with Ukrainian lives, as opposed to Ukraine fighting to hold onto its soverign territory and avoiding a genocidal sweep of its population and statehood.
Ukrainians should just give in now to save some level of soverignty.
Direct NATO-Russia war risks nuclear annihilation, when NATO hasn't put a single soldier into the fight in 4 years nor has signalled anything to the contary.
To quote yourself "then a strategy that uses Ukraine's incredible defensive successes to lock in the best possible peace,one that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and a future sooner rather than later, might be better?"
Seems wildly incompatiable with Russia's current stance that Ukraine not only surrender lost territories, but give up territories Russia hasn't a hope of taking, and put heavy limits on its military, and a sweeping host of other surrenders including the West welcoming Russia back into civilisation with open arms.
You can talk about reality, and I'd say Putin needs a heavy dose of it himself, except he already knows the true reality. He launched a botched invasion, he tanked Russia's economy, he destroyed his own legacy, he exposed RU as a toothless tiger from a military POV, and all the rest, and for what?
Some parcels of neighbouring Ukraine? Even if he achieved it all tomorrow, history will remember him as a classic blunderer. Clearly he thought he'd waltz through Ukraine in short order ala both Gulf Wars.
He personally has nothing to lose now, and no doubt he'll keep going until something gives, why wouldn't he? His whole image and hold on power depends on it. The economy is propped up by wartime spending.
At this point Putin is in a classic Catch 22 situation. Can't really afford to win or lose, almost, but at least a "win" would paper over the stress fractures for a while.
"Those who would give up Essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklyn, 1775.
Russia has repteatedly invaded and annexed territory of its neighbouring countries. Based on it's preious behaviour, appeasement will only bring temporary safety.
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
The only way to stop Russia, is to stop Russia, anything else is only a brief respite until Russia regroups and repeats its aggression. The best way to lasting peace is to put Russia in a place where it cannot attack again.
Russia has already sacrificed 100s of thousands of men, international isolation, and a stunted economy. Yet, it fights on. Hoping for a palace coup or Putin's death is a wishful hope, not a strategy. To base policy on a "maybe" is a dangerous gamble with Ukrainian lives.
Yes Eu/ Ukraine's goal is to make the war too costly for Russia. Russia's goal is to make the war too costly for Ukraine. This is a brutal test of endurance. A "negotiated end" does not mean capitulating . It means using military strength and Western support to force Russia to a point where it will accept a less than total victory. This is how most wars end
Dismissing the nuclear threat as"desperate" is dangerously naive. This isn't about letting Russia "win" . it's about acknowledging that a direct NATO Russia war risks the Extinction of human beings
True solidarity means being honest. if the goal is ukraine turning the tide in this war , Ursula von der leyden must commit to a multi decade, total-war level of support like Russia. If that is deemed impossible or too risky, then a strategy that uses Ukraine's incredible defensive successes to lock in the best possible peace,one that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and a future sooner rather than later, might be better?
What yokes were Dim and Wit on when they come up with this guff?
Is there any chance of the Ukraine we are familiar with in this solar system launching an unprovoked invasion of Russia? Of course, there’s every chance of Russia alleging that a future Ukraine has launched a missile on a Russian city by organizing such an explosion itself, as the people of Chechnya know all too well.
... just here, in your first born's blood.
So Mr Putin, just to confirm, you want to keep what you’ve stolen, steal a lot more while you’re at it, resume business with the West, cancel all the war crimes malarkey and ensure you can steal the rest of country down the road. Where do we sign?
Two Russian Shadow fleet tankers were hit in the black sea off the coast of Turkey. Lots of smoke on the horizon. They transport oil to India and Turkey. Denys says they were empty so probably en route to Russia for a refill. Hopefully they're now a coral reef project.
If they make the black sea a no go for Russian tankers this will be a huge blow to the Russian economy.
The Ukrainian goal isn't to win outright on the battlefield, it's to make the war as costly and unsustainable for Russia as possible via effective military defense.
My problem with these sorts of posts is that they seem to hinge on some bizarre fantasy that Russia is some global superpower with unlimited resources and a bullet-proof economy.
It has none of those things.
The military reality is that Russia is fighting almost 4 years and when you exclude the land it already held pre 2022 has taken very little of Ukraine, with gains dwindling constantly to WW1 type advances at WW1 levels of casualties.
Two further things wrong with your post.
Firstly, saying there's zero percent chance Russia will withdraw goes back to your above assertion, that Russia has an infinite capacity to fight and suffer, when it does not, not to mention, Putin could die next week, could be deposed, anything could happen independent of economic and military factors.
Secondly, "a negotiated end of the killing" is not what Putin is looking for. He wants terms as if Ukraine has been decisively militarily defeated, including limits on UKR military and them handing over territory they already hold, have successfully defended, and Russia isn't within an asses roar of conquering anytime soon.
Why would Ukraine agree to such terms when nothing like that has happened? Why would you dress up such demands as "negotiated end to the killing"?
That's not negotiation. That's Putin wanting to be seen to have decisively won his disasterous war with Versaille Treaty Lite so he doesn't end up like Mussolini.
Lastly, the big bad stick of Russia must be allowed to win or else we'll all face nuclear annihilation…..is pretty desperate.
Curious as well that certain posters always put the onus on Ukraine to "stop the killing"….when they're defending their own country against a bigger neighbour who's made it quite clear it wanted to erase their national identity and autonomy completely, up to genocide.
Sums up Russia.
Useless.
mighg be time to recognise Russia's claims to Alaska in return.
did you forget no 3 ie bankrupting Russia. It is within the powers of the west to choke Russia financially it can be ‘fast tracked by Ukr droning the s—t out of the main Russian oil processing/pumping facilities
The danger is that Putin will just bank what he is offered and keep pushing, like Hitler did.
There are implications for Europe as a while if Russia is allowed to redraw borders by force. It sets a precedent.
I think we need to teach the young of what happened when people like Neville Chamberlain took the easy way out at Munich. He thought it would bring peace.
Also controlling Ukraine would give Russia domination over minerals and rare earths and the international grain market. They would use that to destabilise the west further.
Do we want a precedent where independent countries are forced back into the empires they escaped from? What would that mean for Ireland if an imperialist rightwing government came to power in the UK?
Russia should just withdraw is morally correct but practically useless. It ignores the central, undeniable fact of this conflict: There is a 0% chance that Russia will voluntarily withdraw
Given this reality, there are two choices for the world
1.Demand total Russian surrender, fueling a war of attrition for probably decades, resulting in millions more deaths with no guarantee of success.
2.Acknowledge the military situation and pursue a negotiated end to the killing, however imperfect.
The West can send endless weapons and unite through slogans like "peace through strength" and "whatever it takes", but it cannot change the fundamental reality that Russia is a larger, nuclear-armed state that isn't going to capitulate
The goal of pursuing a perfect moralistic victory that is impossible to achieve is not going to move you a mm closer to peace and save millions of lives
3 years of demands and escalations didn't get any withdrawal or save millions of lives
Should we just go all in for world war 3 in the pursuit of victory ?
North Korean arms shipments to Russia have resumed.
Fresh satellite imagery from Planet Labs, published by NK Pro, shows Russian container vessels Lady R and Angara returning to DPRK ports — a route previously used to move thousands of containers of ammunition into Russia, as Militarnyi reports.
Both ships made 3 visits in November and 2 in October to Rason, the DPRK port near the Russian border that has quietly become a weapons logistics hub.Analysis by Militarnyi reveals the scale of a single shuttle run:Angara: 632 containers per voyage (payload up to 7,331 tons) Lady R: 783 containers per voyage (payload up to 7,630 tons) Total capacity over five recent voyages is calculated at 7,075 containers
Both ships made 3 visits in November and 2 in October to Rason, the DPRK port near the Russian border that has quietly become a weapons logistics hub.
Analysis by Militarnyi reveals the scale of a single shuttle run:
Angara: 632 containers per voyage (payload up to 7,331 tons) Lady R: 783 containers per voyage (payload up to 7,630 tons) Total capacity over five recent voyages is calculated at 7,075 containers
The feared Sarmat puts on a show.
Ukrainian woman in mid 20s describes life in a Kherson village under Russian occupation (11 minutes in).
I say its quite possible something like that or tons of money provided to him years ago or both. Russia have him bent over a barrel and there holding the vaseline.
Russia must have video of trump sleeping with a minor such is the level of fanning over them by trump.
Georgia effectively being turned into a Warsaw Pact type satellite state.
In Kuzbass an ambulance carrying a patient was stuck in a snowdrift all night. Authorities refused to clear the road to access the ambulance as the Kremlin labelled the woman patient a foreign agent. The woman fell into a coma overnight in the ambulance. The kremlin were disappointed the woman was still alive in the morning.
Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla resigns as South African MP over Russia mercenary recruitment scandal
How many Africans (not just South Africans) have been duped like this? At least the story shines a light on another dark a channel that helps aid Russia's senseless invasion.
Another image of this.
Trump is also pulling the rug from under the talks a few days ago.
I dont think this WHs priority is ending the fighting. Its getting back into Putins good books so they can make lucrative fossil fuels and other deals.
