Labour are going to die a death in the next UK general election, you can be fairly sure. They didn't get a majority in the last election because of how great they were - they got in because of how staggeringly awful the Conservatives were. When your whole strategy of power rests on being the least bad option, you're screwed the minute a party comes along who gives people something to vote FOR.
It's always something to behold, this complacency and lack of initiative you see from centre-ground parties around the world. They twiddle their thumbs and offer no solutions to publics crying out for change and then wonder what happened when some snake-oil salesman comes along to woo the electorate with easy answers. And it will happen again with Reform.
So you think the centre parties should also sell snake oil and lie about how easy it is to fix complex problems ?
A centre party tried that. It was called Brexit.
Starmer has been worse than even I expected but hey I bet Corbyn would have been even worse against the Tories and Reform! (not serious about the last bit)
What, exactly, are they voting for when they vote for Reform?
In the magical land of Oz the turnout was 98.2% because you get fined if you don't vote (the exact opposite of ye olde poll tax) and they use a single transferable vote.
But we live in interesting times.
Immigration control, mostly.
At least thats what they are hoping for.
Great system that! I wonder when it was brought in and does any other country use it?
Couldn't see an Irish government wanting it as we've had the same 2 party's for 100 years.
It's the same as ours except there's a fine of $20 for not voting and lots of ways to vote early. That's €11.40
Any time anyone defends the UK's use of FPTP you have to remind them that of the double standard where the UK setup lots of different types of Proportional Representation in other places. Like here and down under and the regional assemblies and for the EU elections back in the day.
Immigration control already exists in the UK
Indeed, but I think the Reform voters want stricter controls. Not sure there is much other policy that Reform are offering.
They have single seat constituencies, so its the same as our presidential election/by elections; not other elections.
As for the snarky comment you were replying to, they don't seem to realise that Australia has had the same two parties - Liberal/National effectively being one - in government for 100 years too.
And they have only had those two-and-a-bit parties in any Government ever in that period, whereas we've had nine (FF, FG, Labour, Greens, PDs, National Labour, CnaT, CnaP, Independent Alliance)
I think it is a realistic outcome but it is not in interest for either party to entertain the idea, at least not publicly.
The only way I see Labour winning the next general is down to distortions of FPTP.
There’s a strange reality emerging that Badenoch, for all her uselessness, could actually end up being bad for Labour.
She stays as Conservative leader and the Tories will continue to bleed support to Reform, with Reform growing to be seen at the only option for the Brexity-type voters.
A stronger Tory leadership could result in them steadying the ship, and ultimately splitting the Brexity voters a bit more evenly, allowing Labour to hold seats due to a fragmented opposition.
The Tories are going to have to do some major work between now and the next GE to win back voters. There is time, but I'd say its more likely that Reform will grow their vote share, rather than the Tories/Labour winning back lost ground.
Both the Tories & Labour need new leaders to help stop the rot, but I dont see Labour doing that: the Tories, probably Jenrick within 12 months.
Jenrick's brand of English nationalism is going to break up the United Kingdom. Britain is dead if every Brit south of the Tweed decided that they are no longer British, only English.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/03/starmer-stop-pussyfooting-labour-red-wall-chief/
They're doubling down then.
A new Labour MP suggesting Starmer should take Trump as an example is less than reassuring. These aren't the tough decisions that need to be made for the country, these are political.
Corbyn quite literally was worse against the Tories.
She's a backbench MP so I wouldn't worry about her opinion too much (which is stupid), but people are eventually going to have to accept that the vast majority of the country at this point want a significant reduction in immigration. The fact it has ballooned post Brexit does, of course, go to show that easy populist answers are rarely effective. I don't know what the solution is, but it quite clearly is something that needs to be tackled.
A huge amount of the backlash against Starmer is down to his government actually attempting to deal with the mess they inherited, instead of continuing to pretend that difficult decisions can be pushed aside like the previous three PMs did.
Exactly. The public don't like it and kicking the can down the road isn't a sustainable option with Reform UK on the march. If he can make real progress in cutting the numbers, it may secure him another term but it's still early days.
The rather difficult aspect of it all is that actual solutions to the problems facing the UK are going to take years to start showing results. It is years that they have given their large parliamentary majority, but they have to start showing something before the next election obviously.
It is fairly under-reported, but I do hope their attempts at greenlighting developments that have been stalling for years has a positive impact in time.
It’s a big risk for them that many of the problems they’ve inherited could well take more than 4 years to turn around. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where they do a lot of the hard work to address the problems, but get turfed out before the results bear fruit, and that whomever follows them laps up the credit for the hard decisions being taken now
The sort of leader who could turn things around for the Conservatives is not the sort of person the membership will vote for. Wouldn't surprise me if they end up bypassing the membership again like they did with Sunak and Howard.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2720n2kkjo
This comes out days after the Reform landslide.
Imagine how much more of a wipeout it would have been, if this was brought to light before the recent Election.
This paragraph is very telling:
'The average yearly cost of asylum accommodation is now expected to be higher than the amount ministers hope to save from cutting the winter fuel payment.'
Is it any wonder Reform are gaining ground?
That Reform landslide in full…
That is a year old.
"Full update"
Those numbers seem to be correct.
Do you think Reform had 807 council seats a year ago?
So, you think Reform haven't just shaken up the political landscape of the UK? If so, would it be safe to say you don't think Reform are a political threat to UK politics?
From the BBC...
'Nigel Farage's Reform UK has made big gains in English local elections, cementing it as a prime challenger to Britain's traditional main parties.
It won 677 of around 1,600 seats contested on Thursday across a clutch of mainly Tory-held councils last contested in 2021.
Reform seized control of eight authorities from the Conservatives, including former strongholds Kent and Staffordshire.
The party has also won control of Doncaster, the only council Labour was defending, and Durham, where Labour was previously the largest party.
Reform also displaced Labour in Runcorn and Helsby, where it won a tightly-fought Westminster by-election to make Sarah Pochin its fifth MP.'
We can do all the clever tricks to try and down play the significance of this, but we can not ignore the impact that this going to have.
Reform's main policy is immigration, they are a Nationalist party. The previous BBC article ai linked shows that the financial cost has been incorrectly reported, and is going to cost the UK tax payer a three times as much as was forecasted... all the while those same tax payers are seeing PIP slashed, Winter Fuel Allowance gone, and the 2 child cap. Labour and the Torries are handing the next General Election to Reform on a silver plate. While it is a different country to ours, it is out nearest neighbour, so what happens can and will impact here.
We should most definitely be worried about the rise of Reform, they are the canary in the mine.
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