Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

We've been hearing for an awfully long time just how Russia's stockpiles and general military capability has been dwindling. They're using civilian cars, they're retrofitting WW2 era tanks, they're giving rifles to prisoners, they're putting wings on old bumbs etc. etc.

I mean, I remember when the word was going around the Russia would only have enough money to sustain the war effort until about April or May of 2022, yet here we are nearly 3 years later, the war still ongoing.

Obviously, the Russians have been able to cobble together a sustainable model for war, adhoc and brutal as it would appear. Not indefinitely so - nothing is - but enough that it's hard to believe any more rumours of Russia's imminent collapse on the battlefield. Now we have Zelensky saying that Russia is really upping its military-industrial machine, which bodes poorly for a potential peace agreement as well.

What is clear is that Russia are not going to achieve anything like the objectives they held at the outset in 2022. They can act like annexing the land they sit on is a victory, if they get to, but it's really not when you consider what they paid in lives and material. By the same token, the Ukrainian flag will very likely not fly officially over Mariupol or Sevastopol again in our lifetimes.

So, it's going to come to some sort of compromise at the end of it. Whatever that is, I don't know, but I know there will have to be some sort of hard guarantees on Ukrainian security. I wouldn't trust Russia an inch.

There is no evidence in those ramblings by Trump about Biden administration's policy on the use of US weapons in long range strikes into russia, that says anything about his view of the use of US produced weapons in Ukraine. There have been continued military supplies to Ukraine since he has come into office and this time has also seen the use of US produced weapons in russia so while he may have been comfortable criticising Biden I think he can see that backing putin is backing the losing side. That would not be a good look for him and that is what I think he will prioritise in his strategy to dealing with the war in Ukraine.

Opening the flood gates on US arms being shipped to Ukraine to help liberate some prime beach front real estate and profits from mineral exploitation would be much more likely for a Trump policy in my books but one thing we can say about Trump is that he is consistently unreliable. What is a lot more reliable is that Ukraine will not be happy to let putin off with any type of victory as this will only invite him to try attack them again. Even if Trump threatens to withdraw US aid to Ukraine I think they are already at a stage that they can continue taking the fight to putin with what they produce themselves and aid they will get from the EU and other NATO member countries that see the value in taking down putin's terrorist state.

https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-marks-first-year-in-office-by-highlighting-key-achievements-including-strikes-on-377-military-targets-in-russia/

I don't believe I said the Russians had a 'limitless potential' to keep up the war at all. Nothing is indefinite, as I said, but it's understandably harder to give credence to word of their imminent collapse when it's something that's been talked about for the length of the invasion. And harder still when you have Zelensky saying Russia are ramping up their military output.

Obviously, Russia would completely run out of steam at some point, but when?

You are really grasping at straws if you are looking for implied messages from Trump to save putin. Trump is trying to sell ethnic cleansing in Gaza as a good thing so he'd have no difficulties trying to justify any sort of policy shift in Ukraine that could make him look good.

No US arms to Ukraine means less USA jobs in their manufacture and a big boost for the competing arms industries in other countries.

The flights over Black Sea which Biden cancelled have resumed

I don’t think trump cares what anyone thinks, just look at him doubling down on his Gaza comments

He is highly transactional and influenced by last person in room

I’ve given outline of where we seem to be heading and it’s not great for either side, the big problem is that Putin is not interested so it’s more than likely that trump who really wants to be called peacekeeper will ratchet up (that it compliments his other agenda is a bonus)

Finally 10,000 tanks + 1

General peace and general prosperity, all in comparative terms, are hard fought for and easily forgotten. It seems especially so with voters across the Western world over the past 20 years. Probably not surprising given the last living witnesses of WW2 are dying off along with their first hand experiences of what true horror and loss of civil rights really looks like. But as you say, a discussion for another thread really.

Not an unreasonable judgment. But in Ireland, where we kissed the Bishop's ring and worshipped blindly at the altar of Catholicism for a couple of centuries, we'd do well to reflect on our collective guilt for the abuses visited on so many innocents all while the average Joe stood by, tugged their forelocks and obediently trudged down the Mass every week to toe the line. But anyway…

From our EU perspective at least we have living memory of life under Soviet control to counter complacency.

Trump keeps shooting his mouth off about taking countries yet under his last term the withdrawal from Afghanistan was signed.

Nobody could seriously predict that Russia only had money for less than a year of war. There are facts — the National Wealth fund's liquid assets are now gone. $300b are frozen in foreign banks. In 2025, Russia has no more saved money left. It can still wage war by printing more money, by skimming off or confiscating private savings, followed by conscription as the last resort. These things increase the population's dissatisfaction with the current regime. In Russia, there is no public outlet for expressing this dissatisfaction, so what is likely to happen eventually is a sudden, catastrophic collapse.

Russia will not collapse on the battlefield, they can keep sending grunts on donkeys to attack Ukrainian positions for years and years. As you said, Ukraine needs security guarantees to prevent Russia from attacking again. If those are in place, then Ukraine can start to rebuild and wait for the regime change in Russia which may result in the occupied territories being returned one way or another.

Would suit us too if we had a few.

Russia will not collapse on the battlefield

Just like they didn't collapse and get chased out of Kyiv near the start of the war? What about Kharkiv where they were utterly routed and retreated in total disarray? Do you not remember Kherson? Another time when the "second best army in the world" suffered a total and humiliating defeat.

..

Ukraine could have won in 2023, if they had all the weapons they needed. Unfortunately, this time passed. Russian army learns too. Ukraine leads in the drone warfare, but Russians are just one step behind. They have also heavily mining everything, meaning that fast offensive is impossible. Kherson is the case in point — Russian army escaped Kherson because Ukrainians had to spend days removing mines and booby traps.

Ukraine can only liberate its territories if the Russian political system collapses. Even if Ukraine has a great victory like Kherson every year, it will still take many years to fully liberate all occupied territories. Good thing is that the Russian political system is already fragile, and if the West / the USA give Ukraine their unwavering commitment and follow up with concrete actions, Russia will crumble. Give Ukraine all the weapons now and let the UAF use them as needed. Start shooting down drones and rockets that attack Odessa and Lviv — air defense systems in Poland and Romania can do that. And the most important thing, give Ukraine real security guarantees. Putin is only afraid of people who stand up to him, he is not afraid of "deal makers".

For a different thread but it's not really hard to understand that the USA consider Israel to be it's mini-me.

Even during bidens time netenyahu got 28 standing ovations in his address to a joint sitting of the Senate and Congress, even when civilians deaths in Gaza were spiraling.

20 years waste in Afghanistan and it's already forgotten.