Old thread seems to be permanently locked. It will be interesting if anything can come of this at last.
Threadbanned Posters:
Yeah, the “hope” is, that the assailants blood might be captured somewhere within the nooks and crannies of the brick - I imagine this latest investigation won’t be cheap but I do hope it’s comprehensive and that they can get to a stage where they can confidently say that either there is foreign DNA on some of these items and they can get a profile, or that there’s no foreign DNA on these items.
"The FBI is to carry out improved DNA analysis not just on the apparel that Sophie Toscan du Plantier was wearing….. but also on stones from the crime scene."
I might have missed previous mentions but I didn't realise they were analysing stones also. Really good to hear that they're looking at other pieces of evidence too, perhaps there is even more, briars etc. One would hope this is not just journalistic speculation.
These little tidbits show that there is evidence gathered and still available that people may not be aware of. A good few pages back @PolicemanFox had presented evidence of other bloodstains on the ground that weren't captured in the photograph numbering system.
It is logical to think that if DNA evidence was left on her person, there would be some left in other locations too. The fact that the FBI are involved at all is extremely promising imo.
Mostly a repeat of older articles-
https://www.southernstar.ie/news/fbi-hope-new-dna-tests-can-help-finally-crack-sophie-toscan-du-plantier-investigation-4317486
…………………………..
https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/ian-baileys-ashes-scattered-west-30825354
I hope they scatter the ashes into the sea, or over Kealfada bridge, otherwise the ghouls will be travelling to West Cork to pish on his ashes
The Ungerers were probably the only decent and trustworthy people Sophie had known there. (That appart from Tomi's "sort of double life", attitudes towards sexuality as well as his visits to Hamburg to spend time with a certain lady). Since Tomi was rather artistic, he would probably have been the only one whom Sophie could confide in more, plus he spoke French as well. However as far as I know, Sophie only met Tomi rarely during her visits.
Alfie Lyons, Leo Bolger, Finbarr Helens all had brushes with the law at one point.
She would actually have a case against some on here.
Netflix has the big bucks though, and they’d be likely to try and settle. Best of luck to her.
Jules Thomas' case against Netflix over the first hurdle.
https://www.classichits.ie/news/cork-news/high-court-agree-release-of-documents-in-jules-thomas-netflix-case-over-sophie-toscan-du-plantier-doc/ "Agreement's been reached in relation to disclosure of documents in the High Court against Netflix by Jules Thomas,"
Looking good for her case. She has had a rough old time, including some scurrilous remarks on here. She might sue Boards.ie as well!
+ Bolger and Hogan and Sullivan & Son.
Sophie seems to me the kind of person that if Bailey came up to her, she would pretend not to speak English. The thought that she would have listened to him blabbering on about his scribbles on a raggedy notepad is ridiculous imo.
Whether she was introduced to Bailey or not, Sophie "knew" Alfie Lyons, Finbarr Hellen and even Tomi Ungerer much better than she knew Bailey. She had actual conversations with all three, at different times.
Or perhaps more that one of the 50 suspects?
Bailey always admitted “ knowing of” and “knowing to see” Sophie.
It should read - "people in Ireland have been convicted for much less than some of the evidence etc..".
Bailey was local, had been living in the area a number of years, knew the locals and was himself well known. He lived a short distance from the cottage. I tend to believe Lyons' account of him having introduced Sophie to Bailey and disbelieve Bailey's denial of him ever having laid eyes on her, let alone knowing who she was, what she did and when she was in the country.
Good thing about DNA is that you won't get suspects contamination picked up in the intervening years. You might get some forensics team or investigating gardai showing, but they should all be able to be excluded hopefully.
If they pick up one of the 50 suspects DNA, it would have got there on, or before the murder. If it is blood mixed with Sophie's blood, it could only have gotten there during the murder.
In fairness to the Guards, DNA technology has been advancing by leaps and bounds; it is only in recent years that this kind of recovery has even been possible.
And there might be so little touch DNA (if any) that only one swabbing is possible. Thank goodness they did safeguard the clothing, I hope in the proper conditions.
I think this is the best chance of recovering a real, concrete clue to the killer's identity and I really hope they get a result. Let us never forget that a woman was violently murdered, and the case is still unsolved.
I would say it’s because there is pretty much no result (aside from a negative test) that makes the investigating gardai come across as anything better than total incompetents. If they find Bailey DNA, how could they have fucked up so badly, if they find anyone else’s, can of worms.
As far as I know they've sent the clothes Sophie wore that night to the FBI? Just wondering, what kept them so long for doing that?
UK CPS are very clear on this aspect - can’t find a similar statement on the DPP website
Since deceased persons cannot be prosecuted, the CPS will not make a charging decision in respect of a suspect who is deceased.
This applies in all cases where the suspect is deceased, including cases in which the police made a referral to the CPS for a charging decision prior to the suspect's death.
The CPS will also not make hypothetical charging decisions. For instance, it will not indicate:
Whether a different charging decision would be made now, in relation to a deceased suspect, as compared with the charging decision that was made previously in relation to the same suspect.
https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/deceased-suspects-cps-policy-charging-decisions
I find it exceedingly strange that the DPP would be willing to engage in an assessment of a dead person, indicating whether they would have brought it to trial.
Seems like basically indicating guilt without any recompense. Has there ever been another case where they have done so?
On the gardai side I could understand why they would would perhaps release evidence to the public, not that I would necessarily agree unless any and all evidence was released
You could even go down a rabbit hole on what "to know" means.
To know "of"?
To know "to see"?
Is it as per dictionary definition eg
have developed a relationship with (someone) through meeting and spending time with them; be familiar or friendly with.
Even if Bailey had been briefly introduced once by Alfie does that = "to know" by that definition?
Dubious.
the ‘someone who knew her’ part seems very telling.
It gets repeated a lot here that Alfie said he was ‘90 percent sure’ he had introduced Bailey to Sophie. What he actually said was 80 to 90 per cent sure. someone also did a really good breakdown of just how little time she spent in Ireland over the years, a few days here and there and never alone until December 1996. There was no opportunity for Bailey to ‘know’ her.
And yes he was a narcissist and enjoyed the notoriety from being associated with this crime, but an actual clever, psychopathic predator would be more likely to have made some approach on some pretext to Sophie if he truly was attracted to her social or artistic or intellectual status or whatever. That’s how those people operate. They would know full well they wouldn’t get anywhere by turning up at a remote house in the middle of the night banging on the door with a pocketful of poems. It is absurd.
of course I am willing to entertain the idea that Bailey was the murderer as I think all reasonable people are. Because we simply don’t know. But then you have a contingent of posters who are so certain that Bailey did it (because of their superior gut instincts, or because he had his sleeves slightly pulled down in a video) they have failed to consider any other possibility at all.
Im terms of the evidence, yes that’s my take on it too.
I dunno- considering it’s a tabloid article, maybe it should be disregarded but even tabloids print the truth sometimes 😀- it’s unusual isn’t it?
In the absence of any follow up article I guess we can’t do/say much more - could have been written based on totally inaccurate sources.
Has got me thinking though - if the 2025 version of An Garda submit a file on Bailey to the DPP, I guess we have to take it that they know best - I do respect the Gardai of today, especially in relation to murder investigations - they’re the experts - they may well have uncovered very clear evidence and haven’t shared it yet
"it was somebody local who knew her "
That doesn't sound like Bailey to me, unless they've uncovered some new evidence that he actually knew Sophie.
I don't understand this-
“People have been convicted in Ireland for much more than some of the evidence we have, but we are taking all the time we need to get this right."
Does it mean people have been convicted on less evidence than they have on the suspect?
This is an October 2023 article- so I assume that Gardai are referring to Bailey when they say …..
They believe they know who killed Sophie, that it was somebody local who knew her and that finally they will have a cast-iron case to prove it. "We believe we have more than enough evidence against a suspect and that the Director of Public Prosecutions will agree with us.
“People have been convicted in Ireland for much more than some of the evidence we have, but we are taking all the time we need to get this right.
“It is a very high-profile case and the whole country is watching but we are determined that justice will finally be delivered for Sophie.”
https://www.thesun.ie/news/11568766/sophie-toscan-du-plantier-cold-case-justice-cork/amp/
Yes yes I know it’s “The Sun”- just asking - wouldn’t it be mad if all of this investigation was actually about someone other than Bailey?
Since the article, Bailey obviously died; they were intending to search video footage of a festival where Bailey allegedly met Sophie around 1994 or 95 I believe - no word on that outcome; they have since got hold of his more recent writings and recording post death so that can’t be what they’re referring to; and of course, the FBI investigation is apparently only commencing its work in the items it’s received - so a hyped tabloid story, or an over hyped and confident investigation team, or a bluff to spook Bailey, or something else? It’s a strange article - a lot of confidence claimed and yet we’re nearly 1.5 years later and nadda- if their so called “evidence” is some old dude or dudess “remembering” something after 25+ years then jayzuz!
Ok
Again I’m not sure if you read my comment but I said it is relevant for discussion.
In a thread bereft of any progress, ive put forth a fact that helps clarify the picture even just a tiny bit. If you cant see the meaning/relevance then ok fair enough, thats your loss imo, there are other things for you to discuss in this case.
If you disagree with it, thats fine, youre disagreeing with experts who came to a professional conclusion, not me.
And no he wouldnt have had to directly known her, just knowing of her and her status would be enough in that theory of his psychology.
And yes, this is not hard evidence, or enough to convict him. Its not meant to be. So lets just not.
I posted last year on this thread of a random American serial killer - he would literally cast his eyes on a female stranger, and that person became his target- he’d stalk her then kill her.
He was a loner, moving from town to town- his motivation to kill did come from a sexual origin although none of the victims were sexually interfered with - I believe the act of killing was some form of sexual gratification in itself. The killings were “brutal” .
A very unusual and quite unique case and person. It’s from that perspective I then look at Sophie - her killing was also brutal (yes I know all killings are brutal but this particularly so)- I think the nature of the killing is key to unlocking the person who did this crime -
Is it Bailey? I don’t believe it is - his violence was in his home setting. Brutal and all that it was, it was directed at a person he knew very well.
Absolutely no-one has provided “proof” that he knew Sophie - a “90% “ sure an introduction took place over a garden fence statement is the best anyone can do. I don’t believe Bailey was a similar character to the serial murderer above - he directed violence to someone he knew very well - why would he cause violence to a woman he didn’t know in any way shape or form of the word “know” - it doesn’t make sense.
The Garda statement of “this killer will kill again”- given my American example above and the brutality of it, I would agree. I just don’t believe that Bailey did it.
I actually agreed with your overall point, that he has some psychological condition. My point was that even in the extreme case you shared from the psychologist, an 18-21% higher likelihood is pretty much meaningless given the context. I would give a much higher credence to him being arrested for beating up Jules for example, however this also requires the proximity, and knowing her, which appears to be a much less grounded argument.
I'm not criticising you making that argument, and it is relevant to the discussion, I'm just disagreeing with it.
Are we to go around this yet again? Very well.
"But at the end of the day it doesnt make him a murderer in fact, and wouldnt have been permissable at his trial"
Great. Thats not what its meant to do, I didnt post to convict him. I posted because the thread is looking for facts relevant to the topic, and apart from the much repeatedly mentioned boot there seems to be a general scarcity of facts, a dead end.
If you have details on other suspects why not drop them here, it would help clarify the subject of the thread. I would like to see them. Anything new and solid would be v interesting.
They dont even have to be 'hard evidence' or up to the standard of a trial. As we're not in court, we're in an internet forum, thats all. Dont lose the context.
Excellent point well made
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