I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Labour of old peaked at same FPV Sinn Fein have now. They never managed to sustain near that level on back to back electoral cycles.
They were also a long way off both the govt parties.
Labour have never come as close in seats or votes to both FF and FG, in 2011 they eclipsed FF but not close to FG.
Independents will continue to rise, as centre right voters tire of FFG, SF will stay similar unless a more credible left party arises (Will soc dem continue to grow, will labour be able to ditch the FG-lite status earned after 2011)
FF and FG will never see 35%+ FPV for either of them ever again
Verona may still have an axe to grind with FG following her de-selection back in 2019 or thereabouts. She's not an option
I don't agree that Mary Lou is SF's best communicator, she's full of clichéd talking points with no depth and is rarely across the detail of any policy position.
David Cullinane has a better grasp of detail for his area of responsibility and indeed beyond it - I heard him in a debate with both an FF and FG TD, and to be fair to him, he filleted them with his knowledge and detail on housing policy.
Not that I'd consider giving SF a vote any time soon, though 😁
Canney & Moran were part of the 2016 Coalition. Barry Heneghan is Finian McGrath's successor who was also in that 2016 Govt. Add in Verona Murphy, Grealish, Harkin, Lowry and you're off to a good start.
Then you have Independent Ireland, and the rural independents (Healy Rae x2, McGrath, Nolan) if you want further reinforcements.
I think the problem is worse than inept.
I think much like Labour of old they have hit their peak. Their only hope of government now or ever is to take 30+ seats in with FF if FG ever opt out.
Okay here's a graphic of indos I filched from politics.ie. Not sure are these already elected or some just likely or what but anyway
So you're FFG HQs looking to recruit a supporting cast 7-8 strong…
Obviously first you round up the usual suspects of HR brothers, Lowry, McGrath & Grealish
After that I think you have a choice between a right-wing cohort of Murphy, Toole and Nolan or a clutch of 'pragmatic progressives' in Canney, Moran, Harkin, possibly Heneghan
Pretty sure they wouldn't be signing up Healy anyway. Apart from his hard-left politics he looks like he'd be triggering a by-election before the first year of the government was out…
I thought the exact same 🤣
Apart from the fact that the data supports his theory, I suppose. FG finish third but are viewed as victors because of the pre election nudge and wink. If there were any real FFers left they'd be licking their wounds now, but amazingly MM handed them the whiphand. They have him by the short and curlies now.
Hell rub it up FF tbh.
SF totally inept could be a better summary
It all depends on how much FG really want power.
They have been in government for 14 years non stop, that is a long time.
There were suggestions in 2020, and I still think there are ongoing threads here, about FG stepping back and re-grouping then.
If FF are playing hardball because they have 10 or so more seats FG could say "grand off ye go and form a government with SF and others", knowing full well that that would be harder for FF to do and would have unpredictable outcomes if formed.
FG can then snipe from the opposition benches and (possibly) make hay the next time a GE comes around.
I don't think that will happen, I think a rotating Taoiseach will happen or FG will get a sweetener in ministers regardless of FF extra seat count.
Yet another mis-read by Fionnan Sheehan.
Remember he thought MLMD won the TV debate? Way off the mark, it actually helped win the election for Michael Martin.
Fionnan is not entertained by the result, but that's really not the point.
If I were in MM and FF shoes I would push for a government without this rotating Taoiseach, if they have 8-10 seats more than FG when this all shakes out then FG should suck it up and be happy with the Tanaiste role. If Simon Harris really wants to make a mark he should take Tanaiste and Minster for Health, FF keep housing and then between them they can hang their hats on those two tentpole items at the next election. FG, open childrens hospital, commission and start a new state of the art A&E and acute service centre for the mid-west, interim reopen A&E in ennis, nenagh. FF build houses and have a proper plan as to how people can afford them…bring Labour in and give them some lighter ministries. FF wont want FG doing what they did this time and dropping in a new leader as Taoiseach a few months out. Saying that Jack Chambers definately being lined up as a future FF leader and potential Taoiseach within FF.
I tend to agree. I'm fairly sure she won't lead SF into the next GE but i think she'll stay a bit longer and move aside.
He got called a pedophile non stop for the last five years from a lot of the far right types.
He didn't do a great job on the referendum but then no one in government (or Sinn Fein) really did. To be honest he should never have taken that ministry in the first place. No one could have predicted that it would end up with so many crises happening inside the brief but anything to do with immigration is always going to be divisive, and I think the Green party should try and stay away from divisive topics not related to the environment.
Roderic O'Gorman is a good man who worked very hard and did what he could in a very difficult job. I'm glad a lot of people in Dublin West recognised that even if many on here don't.
It shouldn't be binary but with finite resources it is. The Dublin TDs in the parliamentary party state their case and then their colleagues from outside Dublin say what about us. And while they are trying to sort it out amongst themselves the need for infrastructure improvements becomes greater and everywhere gets left further behind. Rinse and repeat.
Dublin might be underserved but it’s much better served overall than a lot of big regional towns. This shouldn’t be a binary issue though. Outside Dublin shouldn’t wait til Dublin is sorted out, nor should Dublin wait for the contrary to be true. There does need to be more effort and ficus for areas outside of Dublin. As a country we’re putting a lot of our eggs in one basket. That’s not good.
They will have more seats than FG. 1 more seat I thought?
The criminal case probably hindered Rabbitte, but the fact that Albert Dolan's father does the farm accounts for most of the farmers in east Galway is possibly the bigger factor at play! Very well known family in the farming community - 'one of our own' mentality at play I suspect.
I have mixed feelings about Stephen Donnelly losing his seat. I think jumping ship from the Soc Dems to join FF, especially after making his name originally railing against FF on the Vincent Browne show, was completely unforgiveable. He also didn't seem to be particularly good at politics.
However I have heard many people say that he was one of the more decent Ministers of Health in recent times (low bar I know). Unlike a lot of the previous occupants of that job he didn't have his eye on the Taoiseach's job in his future and so was able to commit to it in a way that they didn't. Everyone knows that that job is a poisoned chalice so obviously there are loads of things that you can point to that are wrong with the area currently but it seems like he was making improvements.
The other high profile FF casualty then was Anne Rabbitte. I wonder how much of her losing that seat was down to her losing votes because of the criminal case against the farmer who threw dung at her. There were probably a lot of farmers who didn't like that and voted for Albert Dolan instead.
It won't be axed, it just won't be built. It will be delayed endless due to objections from people that want to see zero change.
SF and FG vote held up a bit better than I expected so FF will be shy of the 50 seats that I thought they would get .
I'd agree, it would be astonishing if Smith's transfers put Ryan ahead of O'Meara.
Mary Lou to be shown the door by the boys in West Belfast.
Shouting Pearse or Roaring David to take the helm. Neither of whom are any better.
This was supposed to be the election that prompted change. From 37% in the polls 2 years ago, to 19% now…
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. People just dont trust the Shinners, not even others on the left.
I haven't a clue what you're talking about. All I know as fact is, as minister for integration who was in charge of the referendum earlier this year, he received advice from the AG that the wording of the proposed amendment around care was problematic and he suppressed that information from being made available to the voting public. It was leaked the day before the referendum much to his chagrin. He should have been relieved of his cabinet position at that point.
I don't know anything about pedophilia or homophobia in relation to him. I know he is gay but that is inconsequential to his performance in his cabinet role in the previous government. He deceived the electorate and it's a pity that deceit wasn't punished by him losing his seat as a TD.
Tipp North are about to begin a full recount because after 2 partial recounts Ryan and Smith were 1 & 2 votes apart.
It all seems a bit futile though. Kelly and O'Meara are surely going to get those 2 remaining seats regardless of which of Ryan or Smith goes out in 5th.
I don't know the detail of MLMD's personal circumstances but enough has been aired to suggest that she has had a rough time. I think it would be a mistake for SF to be seen to throw her under the bus. Time enough mid term to consider changing. For now she is their best communicator and I would give her a lot of credit for righting the ship during the campaign. Even if it was occasionally evident she was not firing on all cylinders.
There's not a hope Fianna Fáil will axe Metro Link, particularly with so many new TD's being elected in north Dublin in particular and the first sign of a proper resurgence for the party in Dublin. It featured prominently in the campaigns of a number of their candidates as something they are progressing and committed to delivering. If they want to expand into 50 seats and beyond they will do so by taking further seats in the capital.
The likes of Metro Link is already budgeted for in the National Transport Plan in anycase and money is already being set aside. Plenty of room to manoeuvre on the budgetary front without the need to curtail projects already in train.
Metrolink is never happening anyway so don't worry too much about that. DART+ is just a rebrand of the existing services with slightly fancier trains so nothing to really get too excited about either.
If both get "cancelled" there will be no major difference to the daily lives of most Dubliners
They need a re-set. ML needs to step aside and give one of the younger bucks an opportunity to grow the party in to trying to become the largest party. They aren't a million miles off and their vote % is high amongst the younger generation
60 new TDs with no media training. Gaffs and faux-pas will be plentiful.
A lot of rural independents see any investment in Dublin as unjust. They want projects like Metrolink or DART+ cancelled under the erroneous impression that this will force people to move from Dublin to the West.
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