I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
At this stage hoping for a last hurrah coalition of the old guard with FF+FG+LAB(+Greens maybe) with SF+SD preparing as the next government in waiting.
BS they have core belief but have always been a minority party. Problemnis there is always a Roisin Shorthall or Nessa Hourigan who cannot swallow the pill that being g in government takes
Lab will not go into government this time without SD and Greens.
Why not if the numbers are there? More ministries for them presumably than in a 4/5-party coalition…
FF and FG do not like power sharing. They would rather be in a coalition with 2 weaker parties than splitting power amongst themselves.
Without the greens in power, who will FF/FG blame for all their unpopular taxes?
I didn’t say it was a “bold” prediction? I just stated what Ivan had predicted.
That's where Holly and/or Ivana come in…
I very much doubt that lack of love from FF & FG voters is just in relation to taxes.
Was an official turnout published?
More than likley it’ll be FF FG and Lab and if needed a couple of ind.
FF and FG may not like sharing power but they’ve happily done it for the last term and they probably will again.
It’s **** demoralising to see 21% of the country have faith in Fine Gael, they’re worse than trump supporters
SD have been fairly explicit in their red lines in forming a government. They're a party on the rise if the exit polls are to be believed so could easily collapse a government should their demands not be met later.
I don't see them as a favourable coalition for FFG. Labour remains to be seen but I would suspect there is hesitation based on their last coalition. Leaves the Greens to possibly prop up a government but it really comes down to how the percentages turn into seats. Transfers will be interesting.
Labour?
Would they be better or worse than the SD? How would they compare as a junior coalition party?
Transfers will be interesting.
They will. A fascinating count and the rugby tomorrow, top notch entertainment.
Nite all
Great clickable graphic on the RTE site showing where exit poll transfers went for the main 3.
FF transfered 39% to other FF and 30% to FG, 10% to Indys and 5% to SF.
FG went 37% to other FG, 32% to FF, 10% to Indys and 4% to SF
SF went 48% to other SF, 12% to Indy, 5% to FF, 4% to FG and the rest to small parties.
Basically the government is as you were. Question is if a 'filler' piece is required who it is. Labour has shown the stomach for government in the past. Greens have done their turn and will be roundly punished (albeit having achieved a lot which will become increasingly apparent in the next few years) and will I expect wish to it it out. I couldnt see the Soc Dems having the stomach for it - Anyways as LBJ used to say the first rule of politics is knowing how to count - we will see the arithmetic in the next few days …
They need to count the votes cast to publish the official turnout. Anything prior to that is an estimate
My understanding is the SDs are a more radicalised version of Lab.
So lab would be closer to FF in their ideology than the SDs. (I’m not saying that lab is close to FFs ideology by the way!)
I didn't mean to suggest you did, I was using quotation marks in a sarcastic way at Yates!
Labour isn’t left. It’s the party of the public sector who are amongst the most privileged group of workers in the country. They fight tooth and nail to keep it that way despite the consequences for the rest of us.
Going into a coalition means compromise.
Labour and SD are ideologically identical - but Labour is made up of people who understand that they can compromise and get some of their policies implemented.
The SDs may be about to be presented with the same dilemma - ideological purity but 100% of nothing; or compromise and get 25-40% of something implemented
When I were a kid in the 80s Lab were always seen as more compatible bedfellows with FG than FF, and they did form governments a number of times.
It was in the early 1990s that FF went into coalition with Lab and that was a big deal at the time.
Interesting how now people consider FF and Lab closer.
Mildly surprising to see FF voters transferring to FG nearly as high as vice versa and nearly as low as FG voters to SF. Kind of knocks on the head that FF voters are not as committed to the partnership as FG ones and secretly longing to run off with the tough boys in SF…
I voted in wicklow and I must say it felt like the twilight zone looking at creche botherer Philip dickhead dwyer on my ballot right there pride of place, a real wtf moment.
Labour are more house-trained at propping up FF/FG, they will be easier to convince to go into government, their stint in government in 2011 did for them as a party that many look to for any sort of radical change so they are now a party of about 5% - 6/7 seats and are going nowhere.
Labour are a party of the left.
Worth recalling that the exit poll in 2020 had Fianna Fáil on 22.2 per cent, Fine Gael on 22.4 per cent and Sinn Féin on 22.3 per cent. Back then, most of our political commentators were amazed that the exit poll showed SF in line with FG and FF but, of course, the commentators had it wrong - the poll actually underestimated SF who topped the polls with 24.5% of First Preferences, while the exit poll over-estimated FG who got just 20.9%. It was spot-on for FF at 22.2%.
If this pattern were repeated with tonight's poll, SF would get 23.5%, FG 21% and FF 22%.
FF won the most seats in 2020 (38 v. 37, with FG on 35) because SF didn't run enough candidates to take advantage of the vote haul. That won't happen this time but I wonder if FF vote management will still give them an edge. This election will turn on tiny margins. Government formation will drag on into 2025.
Find that quite funny. It’s the party of the public sector. Most members would be horrified to be considered working class. That doesn’t stop them patronising them though. Alan Kelly was a bit too gauche for them. I know he’s not popular but he has more authenticity than Ivana. I wonder has IVana ever left her ivory tower and actually spent time in West Dublin or any deprived area.
Back then Garrett Fitzgerald was trying to lead FG towards a more Social Democratic position (eg Just Society doc), so it was not surprising that they were seen as more compatible. Of course FG have moved back to the right of center now…
Not a bit surprising predicted this up to two years ago. It was indicated in the LE's in June as well that level of transfers will see them above the 80 seats
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/eaabbaf8a16773590ee22dd6c15f1d68.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e68aa2b0e039b12ade8384a2f42841c6.svg)
