Replacing previous thread which has continuing page count issues.
Previous Thread
Previous Original Thread:
Threabanned posters:
brickstser69
slay55
mulbot
Saudi Arabia does not set the price of oil. They just manage their production volumes to manipulate it, but they can not unilaterally "set" anything.
Yes the cracks are starting, remember it was the costs of its military that brought down the USSR eventually.
Well Russia has 190Bn in Gold reserves (per WION) and it costs half to one billion a day for Russia to fight the war not to mention its other costs. Probably another year in that?
Ages ago now, when people were saying "why sanctions no working?" and of course the putinbots were very loud in stating "they were having no effect!"
I pointed out that wasn't the purpose of sanctions, or at least not in the short term. What they actually do is smother growth over time. And this is what we've seen. The Ruble is utterly worthless beyond Russia, inflation is running ever higher, interest rates have been pushed up time and time again to try and combat that(now at 21% and mortgage rates are at 28%). The woman whose name sadly escapes in charge of running Russia's economy deserves a medal tbh for holding it down so long. But this won't go away or get better. Add in a slow burn pre-existing demographic issue made worse by young men dying in the war, sorry "SMO", the young men who aren't but are in the military in greater numbers depleting their employment base. Oh putting the economy on a war footing makes the books look temporarily better, but that's not scalable.
Even sky news is waking up to reality on the ground.
At what point does the ruble reach levels where they can’t fund the war anymore?
He's usually level headed. Have you a link?
too much African gold propping up the war…. it'll hurt, but doubt it will stop
Perhaps Scholz should take a look at the writing on the side of Russian tanks and helicopters
“To Berlin” they say often next to Zwastika
Scholz is on his way out after his (pro Ukraine coalition partners walked away) and main opponents the CDU are strongly pro Ukraine
There’s **** all he can do, never mind try to give up chunks of another country
Anyways Putin’s reply the following day was the largest drone and missile attack on Ukraine, even a thicko like Scholz would understand that
I linked to the pod, people can make up their own mind about his ramblings not backed by any evidence
Yep first third here before he moves on to pontificating about the election contradicting his MMT brainfarts of a year ago
No he didn't. He speculated that Scholz called Putin to discuss the terms for Ukraine's surrender. There was no talk of splitting the Baltics.
McWilliams can he be a bit lose with words but the jest of it is that Scholz can see the writing is on the wall without US support so Germany is trying to get ahead of the game.
Ah Jaysus. That's full loon stuff
David McWilliams has fallen head first into conspiracy theories now
Claiming on his last podcast that the call between Scholz and Putin was to split up Europe (including Ukraine and Baltics) in a secret Molotov Rubentrop type pact
Light them up and put them down.
I hope you’re right, but why do you think it’s in “free fall “? It has just been steadily declining as the Central Bank doesn’t have the funds to prop it up.
Of course it’s very bad for the Russian economy and drives inflation up and reduces standard of living. But Putin and his mates don’t care too much about that.
Definitely agree that Ukraine needs to target oil resources and refineries. Their best chance of winning is for Russian economy to collapse and no more funds for military activities or soldiers’ salaries.
Just like the Chinese who forced companies to set up time-limited jvs and engage in technology transfer, which has now served it purpose
They are completely fckued if Saudi Arabia decide to completely cut the price of a barrel. Which they might.
Looking like the Ruble is entering freefall territory. If this happens Russia won't be able to continue with this war or any war. Ukraine just needs to hold on and strike their oil and resources.
https://x.com/joncoopertweets/status/1859964462004056206
The rate of human losses for Russia is accelerating as Russia can no longer get adequate weapons. Russia needs to position for a deal very soon. That's starting. In a very public way Putin went to North Korea to get some more military personnel and also bought weapons. That is really important signalling.
Picture of a former nursery school teacher Natalia Hrabarchuk after she shot down a Russian cruise missile
Ukraine said many months ago that Crimea would be returned without military means.
You know when you corner a rat it gets more viscous… does this explain how Russia is acting right now?
Apologies in advance as no positive news is allowed anymore. Are we happy with how Kursk is holding? Russia's going to lose an awful lot trying to take this back.
Hopefully the Ukrainian generals don't call any frontline troops "concern trolls" when they point out the fact they are in trouble and losing ground. Burying the heads in the sand and not reporting facts is ridiculous, it's vital for them to hold ground or retreat when necessary to prevent loses they can't afford. Everyone here wants the same outcome, the Russians sent back over the border with a bloody nose.
Yes, that's the point. As the Loafing Oaf said above "Putin is seeing (sic) to be 'doing something' in response to Biden's granting permission to Ukraine to fire American missiles into Russia". Which I'd agree with.
If you take the Trump line, Biden was choosing to allow ATACMS on the basis that Russia might be dumb enough to respond by attacking US personnel in Ukraine, thus messing with whatever Trump chooses to do when he takes power (whatever that turns out to be, which is not necessarily what he says it is now, Trump being Trump).
Evidently Russia was not going to be quite that stupid but presumably, like Iran, there was pressure to look forceful without doing anything really problematic. Thus the whole hand wavey intermediate ballistic missile, isn't it great, approach.
However, if it looks like an ICBM and flies like one (and probably smells like one too) it's probable NORAD's early warning system might say it's an ICBM, leading to significant amounts of freaking out. Thus, as the Guardian said on Thursday:
Russia is required by a treaty to inform the US of the launch of certain kinds of ballistic missiles, in the hopes of preventing an escalatory ladder that could lead to an all-out nuclear war.
Leaving it until the last 30 minutes (officially) is part of the looking hard angle I suppose. Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin.
As an aside, the British seem to have unerring timing in their Storm Shadow greenlighting. One day after the US seems like "We were waiting for Daddy Biden to let us" rather than "look, we're helping". Which makes them look like pretty submissive to the US, all things considered. They also seem to have missed the bit where Biden is gone in like 8 weeks. I can imagine a new Trump administration might be a bit p'ed off at what they see as British support for Biden's attempt to wreck Trump’s peace agenda in Ukraine (again, whatever that is). Luckily Trump is well known for his calm demeanour and not taking things personally.
This could lead to awkward meetings where the Brits are looking for some nice trade deal on the basis of their "special relationship" and Trump tells them where to stuff their relationship. It might have been more prudent to wait and see.
To be a fly on the wall on that meeting too. Although knowing Trump we'll all get to know what happens.
Isn't there some quote by Putain that describes that MO? Paraphrasing…''We will invite the West in, take everything we can get from them and then turn around and show them our asses''.
Ukraine doesn't have much say.
As the invader, it's Putin who decides, and if you want to believe everything in the public sphere he has signaled repeatedly he has no interest in settlement
The moment Ukraine signals through back-channels they want a deal or a settlement, in the current state, that's a red rag to Putin.
We're all pretty much waiting for Trump to get in and see if anything occurs from that. He's likely to favour Putin, but since he's unstable no one can make that call yet.
Russia will grind on, Ukraine doesn't have any other choice but to cede and make it as difficult for Russia as possible (plus wait for harsher weather and Trump)
Yes, the rate of territorial change in favour of Russia is accelerating as Ukraine can no longer hold the frontlines. Ukraine needs to position for a deal very soon. That's starting. In a very public way this week Zelensky stated that Crimea is no longer a military objective but a diplomatic one. That is really important signalling.
That's the first meaningful concession on the journey to a settlement.
So 1/10th of Kursk
New York Times. November could easily be 180 - 200 square miles.
