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If Peter Zeihan told me it was Tuesday I'd check the calendar. He's been saying China's economy is weeks from collapse for about 3 years now. The guys an absolute chancer.
You joke but…
🤣
We are lucky they are so stupid 😄
A deduction. They have the means.
They sure as fuk have the motive. Both fear and anger. Intense in both cases.
And after 1000 days. Theyve had plenty of opportunity.
Also a nuke helps as a bargaining chip with their allies. G7 countries who want to prevent proliferation. So you dont even have to intend to use it. You can build it simply for strategic negotiation.
And theres very good odds of assistance from Ukraines immediate neighbors if requested for this task. If youre Moldovan or Lithuanian youre possibly next in line as regards Russias intentions.
This seems an awful lot closer to bodge job of a dirty bomb that may or may not work than what anyone would really classify as a nuclear weapon and putting that on a drone would be insane.
It would be naïve to think to think the Ukrainians have not planned some sort of weapon of mass destruction.
When your country is facing an existential threat, nothing is off the table.
They would certainly be a lot further a long then most countries in a quest for something viable.
How further along, it's hard to say.
I'd say they are more likely to go for tactical nukes, but I'm a big fan of plutonium drones. Here's something on it-
More exasperation than anything Nuclear expert Mariana Budjeryn assesses Ukraine’s rumored capacity for a ‘rudimentary bomb within months’ — Meduza
It would vary as they are always in a cat and mouse game. One day you would get 90% another only 50% etc. perhaps enough that the remainder would be dealt with by anti-missile missiles?
Whatever keeps Putin up at night
Remember for Ukraine and Ukrainians this war is existential if they lose millions would die and be disappeared and dozen million more would run for borders because the alternative is death, just look at what happened in occupied territories
For Putin this war is entirely optional on the other hand
Even if Ukraine doesn’t build a working fission bomb or an EMP, 7 tons of plutonium as reported in that article spread across hundreds of drones and missiles in dirty bombs and crop dusting drone Cessnas and whatever nuclear plants remain is enough to ensure in the case of imminent collapse they can Make Russia Glow Again and go literally scorched earth
Busy evening for UAVs
That kind of weapon would serve no real deterrent purposes and would genuinely be massively escalatory and would lose Ukraine a huge chunk of what support they have. This is ignoring the fact that its completely untested and there is a huge chance it just doesn't work.
Are they looking into genuine nuclear weapons? I'm sure they are to some level. But they aren't 6 months away or anything like it.
If their country is on verge of collapse and about to be overrun and there has already been a drought in aid and support (because Trump or European feet dragging) then why would Ukrainians care about “escalation” or “support”?
People here worry about what would happen if Russia falls apart, what should keep people up at night is what would happen if Ukraine falls apart and they are backed into a corner
Found the original article, one I linked few posts up is related to it
https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/zelensky-nuclear-weapons-bomb-0ddjrs5hw
And conclusion
“Ukrainian forces are heavily dependent on US weaponry, and any reduction in the flow of western arms into the country, let alone a complete curtailment, would have catastrophic consequences on the battlefield. That has prompted Ukrainians to look for a way to take matters into their own hands.“You need to understand we face an existential challenge. If the Russians take Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians will be killed under occupation,” said Valentyn Badrak, director of the centre that produced the paper. “There are millions of us who would rather face death than go to the gulags.” Badrak is from Irpin, where occupying Russians tortured and murdered civilians, and he was hunted by troops with orders to kill him.Western experts believe it would take Ukraine at least five years to develop a nuclear weapon and a suitable carrier, but Badrak insists Ukraine is less than a year from building its own ballistic missiles. “In six months Ukraine will be able to show that it has a long-range ballistic missile capability: we will have missiles with a range of 1,000km,” Badrak said.”
If Ukraine is forced to use a nuclear weapon the West will have to launch its own or face a full nuclear retaliation by Russia.
Right, but that "if" hasn't actually happened. Nor, and I can't stress this enough, would this actually help and talking about it and making steps towards it at this point in time would be incredibly counterproductive. Of course, I don't actually think for a second they are actively planning on this.
This is not a nuclear weapon by any commonly understood definition - it is shoving reactor plutonium into a convention bomb and "hoping" it does something.
The capacity for a long-range ballistic missile I would have a lot more confidence in them achieving, but I doubt it would be one you'd be willing to shove plutonium into.
The article specifically talks about a Nagasaki type plutonium fission bomb
Considering Ukraine used to have worlds third largest arsenal as well as people and facilities, and have shown to be innovative in face of extermination, I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss
Tho more than likely whole thing is an attempt to light a fire under asses and remind Putin he did start a war which could gone even more badly wrong for him, two three days after article came out long range missile use permission was given…
The mental status of Russian's is decided by Putin. No doubt in a population as big as Russia has, there had to be at least some left who see the world as it really is, but as events have shown, being outspoken about it is highly inadvisable,
"It's insanity, a last ditch effort by the outgoing warmongers headed by their debilitated frontman to escalate an already lost war beyond repair. Some people just want to see the world burn."
Sounds like the Red Telephone military situation room in the Kremlin, or has the evil fecker Putin gone into hiding at his Ural mountain underground base recently?
Looks like Putin is determined to endup on every **** list
”Some of the weapons were manufactured as recently as 2020, such as Kornet anti-tank missiles, which were transported from Russia, through Syria, and into southern Lebanon in recent years, the WSJ reported”
It is not beyond possibility that Ukraine may have accuired a nuclear weapon. Bought from Israel or some other state. There are aslo several unaccounted weapons missing from others?
Yes, but they don't have the capacity to make pure Plutonium-239. So it will be a mixture of isotopes which is why they are saying determining the yield (or if it will even work) is impossible.
I have little doubt that it is merely a form of sabre rattling, and they're welcome to have at it. I'm not going to critique them for whatever they feel the need to say. But no one should be under the illusion that Ukraine is in any way close to making a nuclear weapon.
Those drones from earlier were definitely busy
Article mentions they have 7 tons of plutonium, how “pure”? No idea but the same article mentions that’s enough for several hundred warheads
Whatever the truth hopefully this keeps Putin up at night, all that nuclear sabre rattling was bound to backfire eventually for Russia, we are at point where everyone just goes “meh it’s Tuesday, Russians use the n word yet today?”
"A big fan of plutonium drones" 😄
Have you got a poster on your boxroom wall of one?
People have to remember that 'tactical' nukes aren't exactly small things. They vary in yields from 1 kiloton to about 50 kilotons.
Heroshima was only 15 kilotons.
Here's a 'low' level 1 KT airburst over Dublin.
Once you start going down that road it's not a stretch to level up to 15 kilotons like Heroshima.
The big daddy hydrogen bombs that measure in Megatons (so thousands of Kilotons) are just so large we can't really comprehend them.
Russia using tactical nuclear weapons is still potentially akin to replicating Heroshima level attacks (thats how 'weak' Heroshima is on the scale versus hydrogen bombs). It would be insanity.
Pentagon can't confirm that DPRK have been involved in fighting against Ukraine but they expect them to at some point. Earlier this week Ukraine also said the same. I wonder where all these people who are saying the Koreans are fighting Ukraine are getting the info from then ?
Surely there must be some satellite images or something of them
I'm only half-serious about the plutonium drones, but if push comes to shove…
Bucha is not forgotten.
And why would they not be at Russia's door within 3 decades? They are free Country's, and just like Russia, free to decide what their security will be, and if that means joining or applying to join NATO, what of it? It should speak volumes the very fact that all these countrys adjoin Russia, with several of them having personal experience of Putins largesse (or not) and have no wish to repeat the experience! So, 32 countrys band together for collective protection, mostly from Putin's Russia, and was there any particular reason or justification for that, do you think? Imagine, 32 countrys all thinking the same way…
Hope the Russians never find out we hide Zelensky in the gpo.
Getting worse for Ukraine at Chasiv Yar. Been a stronghold for a long time but the situation deteriorating rapidly. 😥
Sounds like it's those damn glide bombs again allowing the Russians to progress.
