I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
SF and FG down in poll, but both within margin of error, so not really much going on there.
I think voters have caught on that Gannon is a chancer and an opportunist. Lowest attendance levels in the Dáil..
If you're in the mood for a none of the above protest vote, it's a hell of a protest vote. He might get quite a few.
It is literally impossible to know what vote share Hutch will get. This talk of him being a working class hero of sorts doesn't wash with me. His family are known scumbags in the area, so does he get the, let vote Gerry for a laugh or does he absolutely tank. No idea
I hope Gary Gannon gets re-elected anyway, and for my dislike of the Greens, i actually think Neasa is a decent skin. Although i don't think there is room for both Neasa and Gary
Francie neglected to mention that SF are also down in the most recent poll. I wonder do they consider that significant now that other parties numbers are magically important!
The talk I've heard is that Gary Gannon could be in a bit of trouble as his electorate is more likely to defect to Daly/Hutch than Hourigan's.
I think it could be any combination of Gannon, Hourigan and Daly for the last two seats, with an outside chance for Steenson or Marie Sherlock.
I think it's very unlikely but certainly not impossible that Hutch gets in either.
I have screenshots,as you know,have posted a few in the SF thread much to that posters embarrassment (actually Ire more than embarrassment)
The level of pretence and subterfuge in some of the pirouettes is such that it’s like a mouse eaten by a cat where the mouse has left a note denying they were eaten
I didn't quote you verbatim nor did I use quote marks. However, when SF were down in the polls you were at pains to tell us that the polls were meaningless.
And I'm not searching through your many many posts to find your specific words.
Where Seth? Find a post by me where I said, 'polls don't mean anything'.
Are you confusing it with me saying 'opinions are not actual votes'? Which they aren't - they are always potential votes. You cannot say FF, FG, SF, Labour's etc vote is up or down until there is an actual vote.
You can say that if this opinion poll carried through into an actual election then FG would be on 24%, SF on 19% FF on 20% etc etc. If you are gonna quote me, please do it correctly.
Recently you were at pains to tell us that polls don't mean anything!?!?
FG down 2% in two polls, Brand Harris is beginning to falter in sight of the finishing line.
Eoghan Murphy is hinting at it!
Looking at Wexford and doing some analysis of 2020 result and recent local elections, Both Lawlor (Labour) & Byrne (FG) are both priced competitively (4/7). Lawlor especially topped the vote in LE for Wexford Town and will take his share of Howlins vote.
You'd assume James Browne would be safe, potentially leaving Verona at risk assuming Johnny Mythen hasn't been a total disaster for the area
👍️ Everyone knows this but nobody says it.
Gary Gannon is one of the Soc Dems certs to be re-elected. Gerry Hutch/Malachy Steenson/Clare Daly could scupper each other thankfully with Neasa Hourigan a decent shout for the last seat
Yes, but where are the builders?
There's pretty much no chance of this happening. One from Gannon and Hourigan is guaranteed to get it and I'd say it will be Gannon. Hourigan transfers to Gannon will push him over the line. It possible it might go the other way, but either way, one will get the other over the line when eliminated.
Where are the soft left votes that Soc Dems and greens attract going in this scenario? Clare Daly is hard left and The Monk is a headbanger.
No deposit needed if you can get 30 electors in the constituency to sign for you.
That does elude some people - look at the inter count sheets online for various local elections and you'll see the odd candidate marked with "no deposit" instead of just "eliminated" meaning they failed to find 30 signatures and had to pay it (and lost it)
He'll lose his deposit
Jim MC Donald and Helen mcentee at loggerheads on prime time.He believes he's been more effective as a bank bencher than as a minister for justice.
Jim MC Donald and Helen mcentee at loggerheads on prime time.
He believes he's been more effective as a bank bencher than as a minister for justice.
Bank bencher or
Hard to see how he could have squared these sort of activities with being MoJ in fairness…
I could live with hutch but not Daly. Have people forgotten they voted her out only a few months ago
Fourth* then
This podcast will surely get huge listeners and keep him in the headlines.
Gary Gannon and Neasa Hourigan I suspect will be OUT and The Monk and Clare Daly IN.
FG are suffering from losing so many big hitter TDs. If McEntee is the best they can send out last night and tonight, then they are in big trouble.
The tiktok Taoiseach also did a very poor interview.
He won't be in the Dail, and he won't be at the expense of MLMD - She could lose half her vote on 2020 and still be elected.
I have a sneaking suspicion that FF will not get a seat in Galway West. Seoige and J.Connolly just won't get enough FPVs. O'Cuivs votes could get scattered.
Quinlivan is a dead cert to win a seat in the 3rd city 😁
He is indeed, Tallent and Williams ensure these guys get loads of publicity, necessary to sell books!
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