I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1857169393681141936?t=7tfbeim94dtY6v87GfiaGQ&s=19
No budget bounce for the Gov parties.
Fine Gael 25 (-2 since mid Sept)
Sinn Féin 19 (-1)
Fianna Fáil 19
Labour 5 (-1)
Social Democrats 4
Greens 3 (-2)
Aontú 3 (+2
PBP-Solidarity 2
Independents/others 20 (+4)
I know some asylum seekers. One person I know has been visiting Dublin monthly with a deportation letter for the last 12 months. Doesnt even bother taking clothes with them now. Knows they'll be back that evening for dinner
Census enumerators adhered to detailed procedures that have been developed by the CSO in consultation with key experts across several censuses. As part of these procedures, enumerators varied the times of the day, and days of the week, they called to dwellings in order to make contact with householders. For example, when an enumerator called to a home during the day and failed to make contact, they dropped off their contact telephone number on a calling card. The subsequent visits were at different times such as evenings and weekends.Enumerators also looked for signs of vacancy such as post and junk mail building up, no lights on at night, no cars in driveways, overgrown gardens, or no windows open. If they observed any signs of occupancy, they could not record the home as vacant. Where they could not make contact with a particular household, the enumerator checked with neighbours to enquire about the dwellings. If neighbours told them there were people living in these dwellings, the enumerator could not record them as vacant.
Census enumerators adhered to detailed procedures that have been developed by the CSO in consultation with key experts across several censuses. As part of these procedures, enumerators varied the times of the day, and days of the week, they called to dwellings in order to make contact with householders. For example, when an enumerator called to a home during the day and failed to make contact, they dropped off their contact telephone number on a calling card. The subsequent visits were at different times such as evenings and weekends.
Enumerators also looked for signs of vacancy such as post and junk mail building up, no lights on at night, no cars in driveways, overgrown gardens, or no windows open. If they observed any signs of occupancy, they could not record the home as vacant. Where they could not make contact with a particular household, the enumerator checked with neighbours to enquire about the dwellings. If neighbours told them there were people living in these dwellings, the enumerator could not record them as vacant.
They found 8,500 properties vacant in Dublin because they were "available for rent". Daft listed just over 1,000 at the same time.
And nobody is asking why. Least of all the government who are actively saying "Nothing to see here."
He's one of these guys so a very particular type of 'anti-establishment'
But I'd say likely to pick up a fair chunk of first preferences from traditional FF voters who presumably would transfer on to the old party
Anyway here's the skinny of the latest Irish Times poll, FG down but still clear leaders
FG: 25% (-2) SF: 19% (-1) FF: 19% LAB: 5% (-1) SD: 4% GP: 3% (-2) AON: 3% (+2) PBP-S: 2% INDs & Others: 20% (+4)
So they want to conflate registering tourists from the EU with immigration management.
That being said , I failed to register my arrival in a town in India and the inquisition I had from border security as I left was unreal. I wonder would SF knee cap me for my failure 😔
Most people continue on with preferences when they're voting.
And he's done a podcast interview with Nicola Tallent.
The preview up online.
There's no doubt he's getting huge publicity.
but what is his actual game. What’s the hidden agenda? Some loophole if you get to be an election candidate……or trying to piss someone off etc.
What is the monk actually trying to achieve. It’s just weird.
As much as I'd hate to see him in the Dail, I hope he takes MLMDs seat.
Well he said he's not taking any BULLS*IT if he gets into Leinster House.
Maybe the interview will give further details, especially his view on prison numbers and how he's going to tackle gangland crime.
Maybe it's as simple as thinking he's less likely to get shot if he's a TD.
Or arrested in Spain.
Jim o Callaghan and Helen mcentee at loggerheads on prime time.
He believes he's been more effective as a bank bencher than as a minister for justice.
It's going to be a long run up to the election.
SF never had a seat in Galway West before 2020.
I think she will be safe but just about. Very tight race.
That's why I said "while looking at government" - not having a seat in the third city isn't great for wanting to be the lead party of government.
He is indeed, Tallent and Williams ensure these guys get loads of publicity, necessary to sell books!
Quinlivan is a dead cert to win a seat in the 3rd city 😁
I have a sneaking suspicion that FF will not get a seat in Galway West. Seoige and J.Connolly just won't get enough FPVs. O'Cuivs votes could get scattered.
He won't be in the Dail, and he won't be at the expense of MLMD - She could lose half her vote on 2020 and still be elected.
FG are suffering from losing so many big hitter TDs. If McEntee is the best they can send out last night and tonight, then they are in big trouble.
The tiktok Taoiseach also did a very poor interview.
Gary Gannon and Neasa Hourigan I suspect will be OUT and The Monk and Clare Daly IN.
This podcast will surely get huge listeners and keep him in the headlines.
Fourth* then
I could live with hutch but not Daly. Have people forgotten they voted her out only a few months ago
Jim MC Donald and Helen mcentee at loggerheads on prime time.He believes he's been more effective as a bank bencher than as a minister for justice.
Jim MC Donald and Helen mcentee at loggerheads on prime time.
Bank bencher or
Hard to see how he could have squared these sort of activities with being MoJ in fairness…
He'll lose his deposit
No deposit needed if you can get 30 electors in the constituency to sign for you.
That does elude some people - look at the inter count sheets online for various local elections and you'll see the odd candidate marked with "no deposit" instead of just "eliminated" meaning they failed to find 30 signatures and had to pay it (and lost it)
Where are the soft left votes that Soc Dems and greens attract going in this scenario? Clare Daly is hard left and The Monk is a headbanger.
There's pretty much no chance of this happening. One from Gannon and Hourigan is guaranteed to get it and I'd say it will be Gannon. Hourigan transfers to Gannon will push him over the line. It possible it might go the other way, but either way, one will get the other over the line when eliminated.
Yes, but where are the builders?
Gary Gannon is one of the Soc Dems certs to be re-elected. Gerry Hutch/Malachy Steenson/Clare Daly could scupper each other thankfully with Neasa Hourigan a decent shout for the last seat
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w0.vanillicon.com/v2/0e54e8024b002427df3ce2953d22b721.svg)
