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General Election 2024 - Predict the Result

Cluedo Monopoly

So it looks like the election will be on Friday 29th November as per O'Gorman's wishes. Possibly a week later but unlikely.

Please provide a prediction to your expected result.

The results in 2020 were as follows:

FF: 38
SF: 37
FG: 35
Greens: 12
Lab: 6
SDs: 6
S-PBP: 5
Aontu: 1
Independents: 20
Total = 160

The new Dail will have even more seats ⇒ 174 TDs

The template is as follows:

Fianna Fail:

Sinn Fein:

Fine Gael:

Greens:

Labour:

Social Democrats:

S-PBP:

Aontu:

Independent Ireland:

Independents:

Note: I will do my own prediction later.

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_BAA_RAM_EWE

….

blackwhite

	2020	Change	2024


FF	38	2	40

SF	37	-	37

FG	35	3	38

Green	12	(9)	3

Lab	6	4	10

SD	6	2	8

PBP	5	(3)	2

Aon	1	-	1

Ind/II/Other	20	15	35

	160	14	174

I think FG's lack of returning names will hurt them relative to their polling numbers, and FF will pick up the last seat in many places where it comes down to FG/FF for the final 4th or 5th seat.

SF will lose in a couple of constituencies where they won in 2020, but they'll offset that by picking off a couple of PBP seats in Dublin.

Greens will be left with O'Gorman, Martin and Smyth if they are lucky.

SD and Labour will sweep up votes and transfers that went to the Greens in 2020, but the SD gains will be tempered by losing their two founders and they'll struggle to retain both of those seats.

Expect nearly every county to have at least one Independent or Ind.Ire. TD after the election.

Hamsterchops

Labour resurgence, Sinn Fein decline, Fiana Fail top dog in numbers, Fine Gael stagnating, and the Greens bobbing along at the bottom of the tank.

History Queen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122818003#Comment_122818003

I'd agree with this. Not sure about FF on top in numbers but I think they'll do well enough.

[Deleted User]

It's going to be another FF/FG coalition with Sinn Fein losing seats to independents thanks to its position on mass immigration.

_BAA_RAM_EWE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122819398#Comment_122819398

Sinn Féin is pledging to establish a new immigration system that would require an audit of local services such as health, housing, transport and education to be completed before any accommodation centre for asylum seekers is located in a community.

I had to Google what theirs was. It's better than sneaking bus loads in at night anyway.

You're probably right about the coalition. Another 4 years of everything deteriorating and everyone complaining but the same bunch put back in.

Galwayguy35

FG 41

FF 45

Lab 5

SD 8

Aontu 3

SF 35

GP 3

PBP 3

Ind 31

What the hell do we want an extra 14 TDs for anyway.

Coolcormack1979

hopefully ffg won’t get a majority as the woke crap will stay going.greens to be demolished and extinguished from politics for a while.

howiya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820569#Comment_122820569

Hopefully next time they run a referendum they can address the number of TDs per population otherwise the number of TDs will keep rising.

Rooks

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122819398#Comment_122819398

Didn't you hear? SF flip flopped on this, which is unlike them.

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820709#Comment_122820709

I've often wondered if this would pass. In theory it seems everyone would support it, everyone has a solid suspicion that there are far too many TDs, especially in other parts of the country. In practise when people find out that it's actually their town, county, urban estate whatever, is one whose representation will plausibly be cut, will they still support it?

howiya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820832#Comment_122820832

Very valid point. I haven't considered it any great detail. I guess it would depend on what replaces it.

I just don't think it's sustainable to have a TD per x amount of people if the population is to keep rising.

harryharry25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820721#Comment_122820721

What have Sinn Fein flipped flopped on?

All I've ever heard from them is they want the current immigration rules implemented

Have they changed from this? Any links?

skimpydoo

How does anyone think FG will retain the 18 seats from their outgoing TD's? I don't.

tarvis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122795938#Comment_122795938

Andwhere exactly has ‘experience’ got us? Children’s hosp costs, the health service gaps, education challenges, Housing debacle- moreover of the same?

History Queen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820956#Comment_122820956

Well for one, our economy is performing well.

https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_global/economic-research/country-reports/Ireland.html

We are also one of the most highly educated countries in the EU. I could go on.

I think sometimes people don't realise just how lucky we are here. Our standards of living are miles ahead of many many countries. I accept that we have lots of issues such as over stretched health care and housing, but that seems no different than many other countries at the moment.

I'm unconvinced that there is currently a political party that will make my life significantly better than the incumbent government

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122820938#Comment_122820938

" TD per x amount of people if the population "

But is that not the basis of our representative democracy? How else would you arrange it?

zell12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122822732#Comment_122822732

Just increase the maximum threshold from one TD oer 30k pop to per 50k, or even delete article from Bunreacht. I cannot see that referendum passing though

Genghis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122822732#Comment_122822732

One way would be say a fixed number of say 200 TDs, with constituencies set based on 1/200th or 0.5% ± a tolerance of population per seat (currently 26,300 but would be allowed rise in proportion to population).

A county like Offaly would be made up of say 3 TDs (single constituency), Kildare would be 9 TDs (2 or 3 constituencies), etc. These happen to match the 2024 seats, but would not change with a rising population change except if population distribution changes too.

Bass Reeves

On present poll probably something like this. will look at it again early in the week of the election

The template is as follows:

Fianna Fail: 38-40

Sinn Fein: 28-30

Fine Gael: 44-46

Greens: 4-6

Labour: 6-8

Social Democrats: 8-10

S-PBP: 2

Aontu: 2

Independent Ireland: 8-10

Independents: 23-27

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122822607#Comment_122822607

The government looks after you lot well all right.

History Queen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122823529#Comment_122823529

I don't know what you mean by you lot?

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122823559#Comment_122823559

Public Sector

Cluedo Monopoly

This cold/wet weather will not suit the government. Harris should have gone before mid November when we had weeks of dry/mild weather. The bad weather will remind people about what annoys them in our public services.

Necro

Mod: There is a thread for general election discussion already open:

Closing this one.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058379711/irish-general-election-friday-november-29th-read-op-for-mod-warnings

Necro

Reopening this after discussion with the OP. This thread is for result predictions only. Please use the main discussion thread for anything else. Thanks.

Bass Reeves

Bit of a change in polls since start of the elections

Fianna Fail: 43

Sinn Fein: 35

Fine Gael: 39

Greens: 2

Labour: 6

Social Democrats: 10

S-PBP: 2

Aontu: 5

Independent Ireland: 8

Independents: 24

Cluedo Monopoly

Polling day, let's be having your predictions.

A prize for the winner.

Bass Reeves

I will read adjust slightly

Fianna Fail: 46

Sinn Fein: 36

Fine Gael: 39

Greens: 2

Labour: 6

Social Democrats: 9

S-PBP: 2

Aontu: 3

Independent Ireland: 7

Independents: 23

Hibernicis

I’m going with a FFSF government, with Martin and Mary as snivelling and swivelling Taoisigh.

Fianna Fail: 46 (incl CC)

Sinn Fein: 41

Fine Gael: 35

Greens: 2

Labour: 5

Social Democrats: 8

S-PBP: 2

Aontu: 4

Independent Ireland: 4

Independents: 25

Ex Crinimals: 1

Nutjobs with Notions, alt whatever alliance: 1