I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
Hazel Chu? She makes Roddy O'G look like JFK
She performed very well in the locals, as did the Green candidate in the other LEA in Dublin Bay South. Eamon Ryan topped the poll last time out. I have also heard she is a strong campaigner.
For these reasons I think she has a good chance of taking a seat.
Out of curiosity, where(cons) will she be running? That will tell you if she has any chance at all, and even then, i wouldn't give her a hope, although saying that, i don't think the green voter really gives two fcuks who stands for them once they are on the green ticket, going by some of the "talent" already elected.
I had sympathy for Chu when she first came on the scene because I saw the vile racist abuse that she got on twitter (and this was in the pre-Musk days when people would actually get banned for that kind of thing so it stood out more when it happened).
I think she massively over-played her hand politically though when she went against party orders and ran in that Seanad bye-election in 2021. From the off it was a no-hoper campaign since it was a seat voted on by county councilors and she was running against a FF candidate, so I think it should an immense lack of political smarts to burn so many bridges within the party over it. I recall her reasoning for engaging in, what appeared to be a massive and futile vanity exercise, was to show other young woman of ethnically diverse backgrounds that they too could run for a Seanad by-election. I mean….really?
I believe that that episode cost her the nomination in the DBS by-election a few months later.
I must say I was surprised that she's been chosen to run in DBS this time around. I would have thought that Byrne would have been the safer (and less divisive) pick again for this contest.
Dublin Bay South. I wouldn't be too concerned if I was Hazel about whether you give her a hope or not.
I think there are some very good Green TDs, and some not so good. The same in all parties really.
She speaks before she thinks, people like that in politics don't last very long.
Didn't she say Ireland was a racist country, it was words to that affect anyway. There were many tweets she put out in a period of a year or so, that she seemed to lose the run of herself
Yes I was surprised that they went with her too. I suppose Claire Byrne didn't perform very well in the by-election she ran in.
Overall I think the Green candidate selection has been a bit weak and unambitious. I suppose the local party members get to pick though and they may be unduly swayed by personal relationships etc.
There isn't a single good green TD that comes to mind(I actually thought Martin was good before she showed how incapable she actually is). Although, it's obvious also that your biased.
PS
I'm not party aligned
I would say that it's obvious that you're biased if you don't think there's a single good Green TD. Every party with more than a few TDs has some good ones.
I am undoubtedly biased in favour of the Green Party but I wouldn't try to disguise that.
Yeah I suspect that you're right. Byrne was never going to win that by-election, being from a government party (and a junior member of that coalition to boot) but having the Green party vote share drop from 22.4% to 8% in the space of a year was likely seen as a disappointing performance.
While Hazel Chu can point to the fact that she got elected on the first count in her LEA this year, her vote share was cut in half from 2019.
DBS is going to be an absolute dog-fight this election. I reckon Chu'd be up for a political scrap anyway!
I honestly can't think of a single green TD that is of any use. I'd have less time for FG than the Green party, but at least they have a few TD's that have something about them.
I will say one thing however, the Green Party does have some talent, Grace O'Sullivan springs to mind, and i don't think Pippa Hackett is that bad, actually i think Grace O'Sullivan is excellent, and i'd consider giving her my vote if she was my local rep.
Neasa Hourigan isn't too bad at least she tried to take a principled stand to some degree. Unfortunately for her she's toast in a few weeks time.
Yep, you know what, she actually is alright. So i correct my point about them all being useless, or whatever word i used for them
They have to gamble, Greens are up against it everywhere and nonincumbents doubly so. Byrne is a 'solid local councillor' but wouldn't attract much support beyond party base. Chu has a higher profile, even the various controversies she has been caught up in will have boosted her name recognition, might attract more transfers…
Let me guess. You have never voted for Sinn Fein but you are thinking of voting for them in the next general election because of the hard time that they get from the mainstream media?
Am I off the mark?
Green candidate topped the poll in Cabra-Glasnevin, Green candidate in third in North Inner City. She has a better chance than nearly anyone else in her party in Dublin bar Martin.
The Irish Times podcast profiled that constituency in today's episode. They haven't written her off either. Apparently she has been putting in a lot canvassing work already
Failed is a strong word.
Do I think we could have built more? Yes. Do I think SF would build more than the current govt? Absolutley not.
Perhaps, though as I've said to you in your analysis of SF you place too much emphasis on the LEs. Hourigan herself isn't overly optimistic from what I hear. 2 safe seats, 2 up for grabs and 5-6 candidates in the mix.
Of course the SF homes would push the private market prices up.
SF are relying on the private builder to build the state land homes, which means those same builders and deveopers wont be building private homes. Supply of private homes reduces, prices go up.
HTB allows a lot of younger folks to get on the housing ladder. Not having the deposit is the hardest barrier to clear and without HTB, alot of people would be stuck renting forever.
If HTB pushes prices up slightly but bridges the deposit gap, the small price increase is peanuts compared to the increased home ownership levels.
I'm far more confident that you dismiss them too easily.
I heard it on the radio, but yep, pushing towards 50k looks realistic next year.
It would be madness to break the momentum we have now when it comes to house building.
Thats local council policy, not national govt.
Local councils should be building their own social homes, but nobody is planning to have them do that.
It doesnt matter who is in govt, local councils will continue to rent or buy private new builds. They need to reduce their social housing waiting list and they have the cash to acquire the homes.
Again, the only way out is to build more and that's what the govt are enabling.
That doesn't make any sense.
If the demand is there already for these homes, then HTB is just adding more demand on top of existing demand - causing price rises.
And there is no indication that it is a "small" price rise either - 10% yoy house price increases are as much to do with demand led schemes like HTB and FHS than anything else.
The momentum is already breaking as apartment schemes become unviable and the current votes hostile regulator environment towards institutional investors funding apartment schemes means the apartment starts will very soon fall to nil.
Only for AHBs the apartment market would be gone
The price rises are more to do with enough people having more money than the cost of the available houses.
If you got rid of HTB, the younger kids wouldnt get a look in because they wouldnt have a deposit, but prices would still go up.
We have record saving levels in ireland and a huge market for property investment. Plenty of cash buyers out there in Dublin. If the house is 600k they can goto 700k. HTB is a tail end impact only.
You are arguing against the basic principles of supply and demand.
If, without HTB these people were not in the market then the prices would be lower as the demand would be lower.
As it stands, total market demand for houses is increased by the total number of buyers availing of HTB. As demand increases but supply is unchanged by this fact, the prices go up.
It is not difficult to understand
HTB has not changed in recent years. It’s impact on YoY figures would be minimal and if anything, slightly deflationary as it’s value is less this year than last in real terms.
A 500k home has 10 interested parties, all of whom can afford 600k.
A HTB couple can afford 500k, with the help of the scheme.
If the 10 buyers are willing to pay 600k, the house will go for 600k,regardless of whether or not the HTB scheme exists. Its not HTB buyers pushing up prices. HTB only covers 500k homes anyway. You can barely get a 2 bed apartment for that in Dublin.
Most Green TD are in big trouble. They are transfer toxic. I expect what happened in the Dublin European election will mirror the general. They won't get enough transfer to stay ahead of a strong Labour/SD candidate and they'll be eliminated.
