Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
All mod instructions from the previous thread remain in force here
Original thread:
It feels like Russia have endless supplies but they really don't. I hate saying it because I don't want the war to last but I can't wait to see their storage bases after.
This will be the end of Russia as a force because they'll never come close to these stockpiles again.
Interesting alright
Reports are that they managed to go another 2km deep.
warts and all
CDS
Sep 13
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted 4 assaults in the area of Vovchansk. The enemy's aviation delivered 2 strikes on civilian infrastructure.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 8 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Kolisnykivka, Stelmakhivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 6 times, attempting to advance toward Nevske and Druzhelyubivka. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled five enemy assault actions near Verkhnyokamianske. Enemy aviation struck the community of Fedorivka with unguided aerial rockets. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 4 times in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, carried out 6 attacks near Nelipivka, Toretsk, and the area around New York.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 36 enemy assault and offensive actions toward Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Zelene Pole, Novotroitske, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Selidove, and Mykhailivka. The highest concentration of enemy attacks occurred in the areas of Hrodivka and Novohrodivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 64 attacks. The occupiers were most active in trying to advance in the areas of Kostyantynivka and Heorhiivka, where about 75% of all the battles took place. Additionally, the enemy attacked toward Oleksandropil and Zhelanne Pershe. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted five assaults on Defense Forces positions in the areas of Vodyane and Zolota Nyva, actively deploying assault and bomber aviation. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attacked near Robotyne, delivering airstrikes on Kamianske, Stepnohirsk, and Shcherbaky.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian invaders attacked 6 times but faced a strong counteroffensive and suffered losses.
General conclusion:
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Escalation indicators:
Possible operation situation developments:
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.09.24
Personnel - almost 631,420 (+1,220);
Tanks 8,671 (+18);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,003 (+48);
Artillery systems – 18,061 (+52);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,185 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 945 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,481 (+93);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 15,113 (+80);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,591 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com
Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion
It's inevitable it will happen.
FFS Putins threat for the 1000th time worked.
Cowards.
who is suprised
Russian forces partaking/leading military manoeuvres in South Syria, with Assad forces and presumably Hezbollah and Iranian Guards.
Unlikely that Russian will join in with it's allies in attacking Israel but you never know, zelensky promised Iran would pay a price, 2 war zones but one war. Israel can defend itself and play a big part in helping damage Russian logistics.
If Russia is burned out of Ukraine they will stop. They would have no more fight left in them especially with their economy failing. As for Putin's regime disintegrating - the next regime won't be up to much either for the same reasons.
Great post. I'd just add given the recent chit chat from the US about letting Ukraine use long range French and British missiles in Ukraine it's probably the Americans who don't want Ukraine receiving Taurus.
The concern about the Russians retrieving a complete missile intact is legitimate but I'd like to see them receive 10 to fire over the black sea and drop the crimean bridge again. At least if they're shot down or malfunction they'll be lost to the sea.
After they are burned out of Ukraine and Russia what then?
The US does not want the Putin regime to collapse in a chaotic unpredictable way, that is one reason why they are not all in with Ukraine. I suspect the US preference would be a negotiated settlement at some stage.
After Putin's (the kremlin's) intervention, the price of a new civilian aircraft the "Baikal" has fallen in price from 455 million rubles to 260 million rubles and the landing and take off required has fallen from 1050 meters to 350 meters. Previously the aircraft was to use western parts but now the requirement is to use only Russian made parts. The supplied plywood will be treated with the most advanced weatherproofing russian technology reports the kremlin.
Nothing. That's the point I'm making; they are making too big a deal about escalation. Escalation is necessary. War is escalation. So escalate and burn the cnuts out of Ukraine and Russia too.
What's wrong with escalation?
There are times when escalation is needed, correct.
There are times when walking away, turning the cheek, a peaceful solution is deeply wrong , counter productive and only going to lead a greater loss of life.
It's not a popular thing on this thread to call for rearmament across Europe, aggressive rearmament, give Ukraine the full compliment of missiles, give allies who are engaged in war or likely to be at war with Russian allies, that broad alliance hardware and no conditions on use.
They are coming either way. We can nip it in the bud now, in years to come less so
These are getting scarce.
🙄🙄
More Russian interference evidence about to drop
There is a page glitch. You may need to go back 1 page to see latest posts.
Hello, trying to access the Russia Ukraine war thread, haven't been able to enter a few times in the last couple of days. No big deal, just letting you know.
The US wants to allow Ukraine use storm shadows in Russia but they use US parts, and so far the US haven't allowed it.
But all signs point to the UK and US allowing Ukraine use them and ATACMS. It doesn't seem like the usual unamed sources speculating.
It's high time they got off the fence and just allow Ukraine do what it needs to win this war. I've said it before, even if Ukraine took back all their land, Russia can still lob artillery, drones and missiles across it's border into Ukraine with impunity if Ukraine's hands are tied.
Treat Ukraine like any other ally and stop dictating what weapons they are allowed and how they are allowed use them.
So yesterday we were told by the usual crowd that allowing missiles into Russia won't do anything to change the war.
Today Putin is so scared he is threatening nuclear war to get it stopped.
Russian central bank has raised interest rates to 19%
All this BS about escalation. The west has a choice; back down and enter an irreversible slide into cowardice while Putin laughs at us or go the fuq in and burn the cnuts out of it.
It be crossed just like every other red line he scribbled because at end of day Putin started this war and only Putin can end it by going home or expand it by declaring war on others (or attacking other states which would be same thing)
The last thing Putin can afford is war with anyone else, they are stuck 30 mile’s inside poorest country in Europe three years into their three day war
Pintman Putin, and he's 15 in.
Do you think that the US and Britain will cross this latest Red Line. If they don't how will they explain their failure to do after all the recent suggestions that they would. Surely, they can't back off now, just because Putin threatened retaliation! That would leave the western alliance looking extremely weak imo.
There have been plenty of consequences, but mainly on Ukrainian civilians. Murdering civilians is the only thing Russia is good at.
Just on the Taurus, Germany has 600 missiles in its inventory, most of which are in long-term storage. Only around 150 are available for operational use, and likely included in the Bundeswehr's plans for homeland defense or Article 5 use. The other missiles would need to be made operational, which would take time and effort. They're also a finite resource, without any prospect of short-term production, the Taurus production line was shut down years ago when the Bundeswehr's original order was fulfilled. This will also reduce the number of spare parts available, potentially reducing the numbers of available missiles even further. The maximum number of missiles that could have been provided to Ukraine was discussed to be around 50-60 in total, according to that leaked Bundeswehr conference call from last year.
A bigger issue is the programing and mission planning, which would be reliant on data directly provided by Germany. A lot of the details are classified, but from what I've been able to gather, the Taurus mission planning system is reliant on Germany's constellation of SAR Lupe reconnaissance satellites as well as other similar classified sources. Taurus export customers Spain and South Korea have their own satellite systems to plug in to this. Ukraine does not. As such, targeting would still have to be provided by Germany, prepared by Bundeswehr staff, which would turn Germany into a direct participant. From what I've been able to gather, SCALP and Storm Shadow are less discriminate about their targeting data, allowing Ukraine to do that work completely in-house.
Finally, it's worth noting where the biggest opposition to providing Taurus to Ukraine is coming from. It's not Scholz, or even the SPD as a whole. It's the German military that is strictly opposed to handing over these weapons. It's because of the legal concerns about actually becoming an active party in the war, it's because of security concerns of losing a missile intact over Russian territory, and it's because of their concern about a loss of capability of the Bundeswehr in general, where Taurus is considered the country's premier, and really only, long range strike weapon. And just to add, that's the same military leadership that has had no qualms about having its arsenals raided of Leopard 2, Pzh-2000, Patriot, Stinger, a whole zoo of APCs, etc., which goes to show how serious this is for them.
My source for this is a German blog called U.M., short for Ungesunder Menschenverstand, or Uncommon Sense. The guy behind that blog is a veteran of several decades in the Bundeswehr who was involved amongst other things in military intelligence, satellite/aerial reconnaissance analysis and maritime patrol and surveillance. I consider the source to be highly reliable myself.
Quite a few red lines issued by Russia so far. All without any consequence to note.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
Scholz has been strange from the beginning, partly due to Germany's weird relationship with Russia over the last 80 years, partly for reasons probably only he understands. But his basic tendency is: see what Biden does, then follow his example. So if US, UK and France give the green light, it greatly increases chance Germany will do the same.
The German Greens have been much more consistently pro Ukraine but unfortunately they aren't in the driving seat of the coalition
