Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
All mod instructions from the previous thread remain in force here
Original thread:
Leaving aside the economic damage aspect (shortages and higher costs for Russia), I think the sanctions have had less effect on Russia's war machine and abiity to supply itself in that regard than expected. Unfortunately they are operated on a sort of honour system. I remember David O'Sullivan talking about the implementation of EU sanctions, mentioning how they try and do outreach and diplomacy with the countries helping Russia evade them, and I assume there is a sort of eternal whack-a-mole game that goes on with customers in such countries, that are fronts, with Russia as the final end consumer. It's a nonsense really.
To seriously restrict the flow of these goods, they would need to make some examples at both ends of the chain. Fining of companies and even punishment for company officers that turned out to have focussed solely on the profit to be made and did not bother "knowing the customer" (or ignored who the real customer was). Apply some secondary sanctions on the countries that have been repeatedly asked, and have shown no willingness to help with this.
This is going to anger the companies, it is going to affect their bottom line, it is going to enrage EU trading partners like Turkey and China (doing this via Hong Kong) too. It's going to harm our own economies.
Unfortunately I have come to the conclusion it's been decided that it just isn't worth going to such lengths & trouble/difficulty to aid Ukraine. Ironically I think it is the market fundamentalist ideology long promoted by US and UK organs like the Economist that helped develop this mindset of putting free markets & the profits above all in politicians, business leaders etc. (arguably elevating it above our future security and long term safety perhaps, in case of Russia sanctions?)
There's no collapse in Donbass. Due to limited resources (thanks Biden and Scholz) the Ukrainians traded some area for an over all strategic advantage. It's like in a game of chess were you might exchange queens. Except Ukraine has traded their pawn for the Russian queen (Kursk).
Putin seems to be thinking of visiting a country that has ratified the ICC (Mongolia next week apparently). Dipping his toe in the water of making international trips other than to clients (Belarus), fellow pariahs (North Korea) or his managers (China)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e852r50x7o
It's a fair point, I didn't listen to the podcast after my first post :) But I have listened to it just now.
I know they are reporting on the facts and taken as they are, there is undeniable evidence that Russia is getting what it needs in a roundabout way. However is seems very naïve that the report is saying "This means sanctions are not working". Look at it this way, Russia was importing, for talks sake, ball bearings from Europe at €100 per kilo. if Europe was selling them to Russia for €100 per kilo, chances are they are selling them to Kazakhstan for €100 also. Kazakhstan KNOWS Russia is desperate for them, not to mention they need to cover the logistical costs for getting them in and then out. Kazakshstan could very well be charging what would be €300 per kilo, plus a fee for the fact that they can only trade in rubles now.
So the sanctions may not be BLOCKING purchases of components for now, but they are undoubtedly making them far more expensive. It's not surprising that some of these countries are willing to risk additional sanctions from the US or Europe for now as it's incredibly profitable to do this business. But you only have to look at the reports that China of them pulling back from visible support due to fear of secondary sanctions. I think the belief that a few sanctions would be slapped on Russia and they would be uncompromisingly blocked from the components the sanctions define is just ridiculous. And I certainly wouldn't expect anyone who defines the sanction packages to believe they are absolute. They will surely be aware of how world economics operate, in particular how opportunistic some countries/organizations will view this situation.
Look, I'm not an expert in economics, but it honestly feels like this is a very shallow report, based on a single collection of metrics. Perhaps that's the intention, just to highlight those metrics in particular, as a more comprehensive view of the situation would require more time than available in the podcast. But when taking into account the logical details we know about the war, the aversion in the world to rubles, the workforce demographic issues, the countless attacks on oil/petrol refineries, the communication with countries like North Korea, India and China, its not hard to draw the conclusions that Russia simply CAN'T be "just doing fine" with all these sanctions among everything else.
I doubt the front line in the east would collapse. Losing Pokrovsk would be a set back but not the end of everything. I suspect at this stage a lot of psychological warfare is on the go. Anything to further unbalance the Russian war machine.
If that quote is true then it means Ukraine is running out of soldiers. If they collapse they'll end up losing everything east of the Dnipro.
But I can't see why Ukraine would admit this publicly so maybe it's not true and they want to lure Russia into a trap. Time will tell, no point speculating.
Almost certainly. Corruption from top to bottom (irony being that the prosecutors are probably the most corrupt of all):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-military-corruption-investigations-will-lead-trial-2024-08-30/
is it possible some of that cash designated for maintaining the nuclear submarine fleet was also pocketed ? It seems to be a trait in almost every area of russian society.
yes
It was a big gamble and I don't want to believe it was a big mistake though at the moment it doesn't look good and the backlash could be pretty strong, both from Ukraine's allies (who were not briefed in advance) and within Ukraine itself. Let's hope all is not lost and the damage can be minimised. A couple of weeks ago it seemed like a brilliant move so maybe this has just been a very bad week but not a definitive setback
Happy to be on your ignore list. Instead of making petty jibes all day you could have just listened to the 10 minutes of a very reputable publication and responded to what was said. But no, you decided in advance you dislike the message so it has to be wrong and attack the messenger instead. Waste of time
They would still be fighting in Japan
It was a big gamble to do. It might of worked if Putin had of made kursk a priority and transferred troops from Pokrovsk. But he hasn't. I say Russian high command for once are happy in the sense OK it's bad Ukraine took over a part of Russian territory but it's some of Ukraines finest troops doing this. There not in eastern Ukraine where were advancing so leave them where they are in kursk and we will deal with them in due time while we take the territory the donbass region. It's more Ukraine in kursk are digging in but I'm sure there loosing forces from drones considerably there as Ukraine probably can't bring in a lot of tons of jamming equipment and heavy digging equipment to make better trenches etc. It's annoying as hell for Ukraine but I really think there going to have to call a full mobilisation from ages 18 and up.
I knew you would have an answer. You always have one and it is always other posters that are incorrect.
No need to reply, you have now the privilege to be on my ignore list.
Doesn't sound like the Ukrainians think they can hold it or that Kursk is going to balance it out:
“The situation is extremely difficult,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conceded on Wednesday.
“If we lose Pokrovsk,” military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned, “the entire front line will crumble."
Actually both, if you want to focus on semantics: They aren't working sufficiently
You said the sanctions are not having sufficient effect while she says they are not working, so which is it?
I am not sure. A lot of their best troops are in kursk at moment.
It's similar to the atomic bomb question in 1945. I think I read that they'd calculated that it would cost over 200.000 us soldiers lives to just fight the Japanese back to their mainland.
Russia closing in fast on Pokrovsk, can Ukraine still halt this?
Me too largely. I'm hoping to be Swiss in 6 months and I'd be happy for us/them to abandon it to.
I just don't think either will.
Should we test it by just bombarding all their military strongholds and finally ending this thing? Is it worth the risk?
I think we should abandon ours asap. Putin can nuke Ireland and how does that go with Article 5? No Article 5 for Ballynuko. And Putin knows this.
It's possible that many of their older land based ICBM systems have not been maintained & upgraded since the fall of the Soviet Union, however their submarine nuclear deterrent, including new & modernised vessels have had plenty of money spent on them in recent times, including upgraded weaponry.
They might well have as many or more nuclear missiles on their subs as Britain & France combined. Would western hunter killer submarines be able to take out all Russia's nuclear deterrent vessels before it nukes could be launched, we don't really know. I suspect Russian land based systems would be at severe risk of being targeted, however hitting their nuclear missile subs is not as easy.
While they may fudge some "closer cooperation" there is almost zero chance of Switzerland abandoning it's neutrality stance I think.
Without a doubt news about war is bad for mental health, and the Ukraine war has been one of the grimmest and most angering events of recent years, you are right about that
Again your criticisms are off the mark: journalists do the reporting, they don't choose the headlines, so the misleading "flourishing" term has nothing to do with her; all her points about sanctions are backed up by facts; oh and she speaks for 10 minutes not 30. Basically not a single valid argument against her except prejudice. Fair enough
Russia apparently destroying their own towns in Kursk, appalling if true (don't know how reliable this outlet is):
Good advice, though that twitter account holder is himself known for promoting outlandish rumours, so a bit ironic
In all likelihood russia’s nukes do not work.
