Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
A narrow corridor would be going straight out from a narrow point on the Ukrainian border and being surrounded on both sides.
That is not what they have done. They have extended the border relatively equally along the front.
along that front only….the entire front is a lot bigger. This is a comparatively narrow front.
This is a salient point though…anything else?
The bigger danger from Putin is showing weakness of any description! To let Putin even think that he can control the narrative in any way is to trigger an attack. Failure to respond to Putins aggression in the vain hope that he will not retaliate is a fool's notion. Hit him hard, and keep hitting him, even harder if possible. Destroy his means of attacking Ukraine is the only real way to stop Putin.
An A10 brrrrrtt would be lovely here
It is indeed disgusting, we can only hope Ukraine's air defences are getting better and better and they do seem to be doing some serious damage to Russia's own equipment and capabilities particularly these past few weeks
Yes, which was where my original point was going. Ukrainian success is positive but it heaps pressure on Putin to respond.
Great if they can hit him hard and keep hitting him but it's not as simple as that. Nobody said that they shouldn't retaliate; but is it retaliation if you're losing as much as you've gained relatively simultaneously?
delete
I can argue its not even a corridor
The Suwalki gap would be a better example of a corridor.
Ukraine opened up a nearly 60 km wide and 30 km deep front which will cause a major headache for Russia to regain control of …
Nothing compared to what Ukraine will lose if Putin thinks he's winning. He has proved over and over again that any form of weakness triggers the attack mode in him. Putin will continue to carry out murderous attacks in any way,,, its what he does. But if Russians see that he is unable to defend and protect them, never mind they come to the opinion that its Putin himself is the cause of all their problems, then his days are numbered.
Big boom expected
Its like waiting for Betelgeuse to go supernova 😋
He has proved over and over again that any form of weakness triggers the attack mode in him.
Exactly; granted he is already attacking in other areas but as another poster put it :
I do expect Putin to respond the only way he knows how to. Lashing out and destroying civilian infrastructure and accommodation.I fully expect to hear horrific reports of hospitals, schools, power generation facilities, etc, to be targeted on a much larger level shortly.Because thats just the kind of cnut he is.
I do expect Putin to respond the only way he knows how to. Lashing out and destroying civilian infrastructure and accommodation.
I fully expect to hear horrific reports of hospitals, schools, power generation facilities, etc, to be targeted on a much larger level shortly.
Because thats just the kind of cnut he is.
they come to the opinion that its Putin himself is the cause of all their problems, then his days are numbered.
I don't think we're near that point just yet unfortunately.
In terms of Russian troop movement, you'd have to presume that the Kursk operation was intended precisely to draw this response. That it is in fact what the Ukrainians have been waiting for. And that they have detailed plans as to how to respond in turn… it would all have been strategized out before they went over the border into Kursk - what lines they're going to try and reach, where they're going to hold, what kind of resistance they're going to face, what kind of troops and equipment are likely to be sent in by Russian to counter them, from where, on what routes, in what numbers and where they're likely to set up.
You'd hope that the Ukrainian's are just biding their time to do the real damage now.
over last few days Telegraph, ISW and more hilariously Darth Putin (links to both on previous pages) made the observations that Putin wants to hide, dismiss and downplay the scale of disaster that Kursk 2.0 has been, setting deadlines that are months away and pouring in conscripts kept in check by Chechens
and sure enough like night follows days and flies are attracted to 💩 we have the official line of Kursk being insignificant being replayed here
and we endup with silly comparisons of square meters per day in back arse of Donbass to dozens of square kilometres per day
"Heaps pressure on Putin to respond"
How much more heaping does he need. The big tough strong man has just had his country invaded, his people living in displacement camps and drones taking out his infrastructure.
Why has he not taken the gloves off his supposedly overwhelming military who can "take it back whenever they want"
Nukes, chemical weapons in Europe, conscripting western Russians. He won't dare do any of those things and if he was willing he would have done it during one of the many many many red line crossings.
That's my point…..he's just had his country invaded…That increases pressure on him.
"take it back whenever they want"
I never said this.
You've also ignore the rest of what I and others have written that may be seen in an unfortunate backlash. And, the bits where Ukraine are losing ground, potentially more important/strategic.
suwalki "gap" is 100km wide
It's always mounting "pressure" or red lines with Putin. How much does Ukraine need to invade before the pressure becomes too much. When is he actually going to act on this pressure or red line.
The answer is he can't. Because his army is already invested to the maximum of its ability. Already at it's limit.
Unfortunate backlash me arsse. He has already thrown everything at Ukraine.
The point that territory in Kursk is worth less than territory in the Donbas to Ukraine isn't factually incorrect, it's just missing the wider picture imo.
The incursion has been a major PR victory for Ukraine. That's easy to dismiss the value of to many of us who think of PR as something involving vacuous bints who drink too much prosecco. In reality, Ukraine is still in this war because it's lead by Volodymyr Zelenskyy who is an absolute master of PR: from his initial video pleading with Russia not to invade and the infamous "I need ammunition, not a ride" quote he's managed to keep Ukraine in the spotlight for 3 years (amidst the Middle East falling to pieces again) and as a result has a coalition of partners in the leaders of wealthy western nations who are funding and arming his country. This foray is also making Putin look weak to Russian citizens and the Oligarchs / Siloviki around him. Might it be enough to tempt them into sharpening their knives and taking him out? Time will tell but Putin's death would be exactly the off-ramp Russia needs in order to blame everything on him and retreat from Ukraine in exchange for an easing or dropping of the sanctions that are crippling their economy.
In the realm of the more "on the ground" practical sphere, the incursion seems to have helped Ukraine to destroy a significant amount of Russia's airforce: we're hearing of destroyed or damaged aircraft and helicopters multiple times a week at the moment alongside the destruction of large caches of the glide bombs that have been doing so much damage to Ukrainian defences and demolition of infrastructure (railways, bridges and ferries) that are critical to Russian military logistics.
This isn't as simple as taking a chunk of Russia to swap for Ukrainian land in any future negotiations. It's textbook Sun Tzu: hit your enemy where he is weak and least expecting it. Yes, territory in Kursk may become a bargaining chip at some point but that clearly isn't the primary objective of the operation.
Yes, and ?
Just google Suwalki corridor
Reminds me of later days of WW2 where Hitler was so singularly focused on the east overruling his generals that he ignore what was happening out west up to and including ordering that under no circumstances was he to be woken up on day when D day occurred and hence panzer divisions that could have potentially beaten back that invasion just sat around scratching their sacks
When is he actually going to act on this pressure or red line.
He has already started.
What has Putin done exactly?
So far he has placed army in charge, fired them, placed KGB in charge, fired them, now placed his bodyguard in charge and still an area larger than Russians managed to capture in a year and half at a cost of most of their tank fleet and quarter of million men continues to grow
And he continues to be able to throw lives in to the meat grinder. He did it at Avdiivka, Vuhledar & Bahkmut; and as backward as that type of warfare is, he is still managing to do it. Will he do the same at Kursk and can Ukraine make it stick?
Despite all the failings you've listed there's little to suggest Putin will have an "unfortunate"😉 accident from a tenth floor window. His (current) General in charge of the response to the Kursk losses was recently indicted for war crimes against Ukrainian infrastructure; I doubt he'll shy away from continuing in this manner because of what the ICC think.
Your argument boils down to
Putin is willing to pointlessly have his men die
So Ukrainians should do the same
How dare they play this war outside the rules the master strategist has created
Edit: your username is apt
Nope. Nowhere did I even hint at that.
Nonsensical response.
In your last few posts you have
I think Rommel being in Germany (because of the very bad weather in the English channel) had more of a negative impact … Hitler even when notified at 10 ish was reluctant to sign for additional forces to be released, (thinking the Allies could be easily defeated anyway)
"Still 550 miles from the city of Kursk"
To me, it looks like they are 70km from Kursk? Although I would expect that 70km to be well defended by now and I don't see any point trying to capture the city even if they did get there. But to get close enough to bring it under their fire control would be a big poke in the eye for Putin.
