Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
All mod instructions from the previous thread remain in force here
Original thread:
I have been paying attention closely, and I'm pretty sure nobody said those things, but shur look,
Even if this excursion is stopped in it's tracks today and even if all them are killed by the Russian orks isn't it a testament to these brave men who marched into the breach with courage not really knowing the reaction from Russia, and not under threat of being shot or imprisoned if they didn't drive on,
They do in the hope of contributing to freeing their country from being under the control of Russia and in the hope of providing a better future for their families,
Unlike the russians who are scuttling across Ukraine like cockroaches for no real decernible reason,christ some of them even think they are fighting Poland, that's how clued in these dregs are.
What does Ukraine's incursion into Russia really mean? | Responsible Statecraft
Fill your boots.
Yes, there is a big distinction between the views of…well Putin and the ordinary Russian people. Vlad Vexler talks about this in his latest video. He actually hits on a few points that have been discussed in this thread recently
TLDR: Regardless of what happens in Kursk Putin won't likely face any backlash from the Russian People. That's because the Russian people have been "radically depoliticised" i.e. brain washed against thinking that they have any agency when it comes to politics. For them events like what's happening in Kursk are more akin to natural disasters rather than the consequences of bad political decisions by Putin.
I think their government believes it and their people are with them, Im sure there is always dissenting opinion but it makes no odds. Im not falling for anything, the point is I dont see Russia collapsing or somehow doing a coup against Putin, that's fantasy land.
….
Another mass surrender of Russians
The Kremlin claims that it is existential for Russia. That is not at all the same as saying the Russian people view it as existential.
There is clear evidence to suggest that the Russian people dont consider it existential, from it being called a special military operation to Prigozhins mutiny to the resistance to mobilisation to the shock at what happened in Kursk.
People may accept and repeat the line that it is an existential issue, but they dont really believe it. Unfortunately youve fallen for a Kremlin lie
Another Russian column swatted out of existence near Koronevo by HIMARs according to Russians
source: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/LvlQjUzDEg
You have created a strawman, inventing a narrative to be contrarian against for some weird bizarre reason
Now go ahead and post proof of these posts you claim you seen here
A mix of good and bad news on BBC: hundreds of Russian soldiers captured, airbases hit, but progress is slowing in Kursk and more territory slipping away in Ukraine...
Good news if true
I think that is way off. Fundamentally the Russian view in that post does not express their reality (dont at me) but the Russians see this war as existential not one of choice , their people see this conflict as a NATO proxy war with the goal of breaking up Russia, they aint turning and fleeing, the Russians are playing this as an attrition strategy their logic is you attrit the other side until they crack. All wars end right? at the end of this Ukraine will still exist but it will have smaller borders , they will lose some section of the east of the country, the rest is just horse trading
Both things were claimed here over the previous few days, anyone who's been following the thread closely saw it. Read through all the posts since the weekend and you'll see them, I don't have the time to trawl back through them and am not interested in points scoring. But the claims were made, and they weren't even the wildest ones
How may are in this 810th murder gang? They may slow things up, but they will hopefully also be dealt with comprehensively along the way.
It will be difficult on an individual level for Ukrainians not to respond in kind, but ultimately they will need to to not let themselves - as they have peerlessly done up to now - sink to the levels of deviant, degenerate depravity of the Russians. This is of course the correct course of action,no matter how satisfying retaliation may be at the time. Those who joyously commit these type of atrocities, and are additionally hailed as heroes by their regime, will have will have to be suffered by wider society in the future. These brutes will go on to inflict harm on anyone that crosses their path if they emerge out the other side of this war.
Just as a few days ago it was too early to say it was a masterstroke, it's also too early to say it was a big mistake based on some bad news. If lots more soldiers get killed or captured and more territory is lost in Ukraine, it will look bad and could do serious damage to Zelensky and the military going forward. But we are not there yet, the situation is still evolving. Let's give it another week or two...
UAF managed to take out another supply column
Who said this would cause a populist uprising, and that the russians would run away at the first shot ?.( some didn't wait, or run away, they threw their hands in the air as quickly as possible) there must be some serious armpit injuries over throwing their arms up so quickly.
It's not so much Russian general population "panic" ,as russian logistics, rail in particular, the Ukrainians have one of the major supply lines under artillery fire , and while it's far from the only line ,it'll putting serious extra pressure on an already creaking Russian rail system…
Go back and read this post and then let us have your thoughts…
It's easy to pick a single bad news story and come out with one-sentence pronouncements, but that doesn't do much for the overall discussion.
Edit: also, I'm not sure you have any insight into Ukraine's reserves? I'd have a lot of confidence in the Ukrainians' ability to judge the resources available to them here… they've hardly put a foot wrong in the war to date.
or in hindsight how dumb it was, short of creating some short term headlines I dont see how the Ukrainians will hold on to this land long enough to turn it into a negotiating chip, Its a real head scratcher, im not sure Ukraine have expendable reserves at this stage
Just.
Following.
Orders.
* https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superior_orders
Quite telling about the state of Russian aircraft…. they were really pushing the use of the TU-22's the last few weeks as a projection of force (fastest heavy bomber in the world etc…..)
Then one goes bang while doing so
God that's grim. More wives and parents and children who've lost family, a reminder that the reality of war is a long way removed from all of us following it on the media...
The idea that the incursion would trigger some popular uprising to depose Putin, that Russian soldiers would run away as soon as the first shot was fired, was fanciful and pushed by the same folk who always get ahead of themselves any time something happens. The reports from last couple of days make it clear Ukraine is doing something bold but very risky and already paying a high price, both within Russia and in terms of territory back home. I felt from the beginning only in hindsight will we see how wise and successful a move it was. Not only Putin's but also Zelensky and his top military people's reputation have a lot riding on this, particularly as it seems the West knew little about it. A delicate balancing act:
Russian economy, army is gone back 100 years, the amount of resources, military equipment, missiles being lost /used daily is frightening, must be hitting a billion some days, not a mind bleeding their country of people, any that can find a way out will leave,keep it going for a few years more and they will be throwing rocks.
Find it difficult to read exactly how things are going as I don't want Russia gaining more ground in Ukraine while Ukraine are occupied with what they are doing in Russia .I am not convinced the cross border push by Ukraine is going to have the impact on Russia that most on here hoped .The area is too vast to gain before real panic starts with the general population to maybe put Putin in danger .I hope I am wrong of course .
The Russians have managed to hit a few , at least 2 went back to the states to be rebuilt ,
Reported that the crew of this one are safe , so that's a big plus ,
I seen the aftermath of this. Lots of Ukrainians dead and many without heads. Hopefully Ukraine can figure this axis out. Those Russian SF are no joke.
Who's going to blink first? Russia are close to capturing some long sought after settlements in the Donbass. Ukraine would probably need capture a fair bit more of Kursk to get Russia to abandon that.
Great to see that Bomber crash. Very rare Russia loses those valuable planes.
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1824244771398791271
"Russia also does not appear to be moving its larger and better-trained units away from Ukraine and into Kursk just yet"
We're in a very strange situation right now.
Ukraine are ceding ground and allowing Russia to advance in Ukraine.
Russia are ceding ground in Kursk and allowing Ukraine to advance in Russia.
