Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
He can do that , and the Ukrainians dig in along a line that suits them, and head south east into Belegerod, blocking off russian supply lines to the kharkiv and then the Donbass as they go..
It's just the scenic route to Rostov-on Don ,
If Lgov is captured the everything to the west of that right back to Ukraine along E38 falls
There now is this
It's still early days and who can tell how this will all play out, but I think the Ukrainian plans are bigger and bolder than we are allowing ourselves to believe.
If I allow myself to think about what makes sense, this is not just a quick trip over the border and then a dash back home again. This is the opening stage of a drive up along the border of the undefended Russian interior as far as Belarus, with the aim of completely encircling the Russians in Ukraine. This will completely cut them of from additional troop arrivals and their supply lines.
Ukraine will then either simply let them stay put until they decide to capitulate, or they will choose to attack, but from behind, not from the existing front within Ukraine.
To go further, I could see a similar drive all the way down to Crimea.
We shall see!
I see it's been reported that Ukraine are using some British Challenger II tanks in this offensive.
Okay so they're not being driven by a NATO country, but they're still NATO tanks in Russia being used to attack Russia.
Still no nuclear war. I think Putin's nuclear bluff may be on the way to being called…
2007 called - they want that bouffant hairstyle back.
They won't encircle any Russians in Ukraine doing that. You need to have a look here
https://liveuamap.com/
The Belarussian border is SE of Homel.
Ukraine should now hold a referendum and 100% Kursk joins Ukraine as a result
Thanks, agree with most of that. Certainly I'd share the view that a smaller but motivated fighting force can match a larger but unmotivated force. The Ukrainians have never lacked for motivation over the past couple of years - had they been fully backed by the EU, UK and US without the drip-feed and slow release of restrictions that we've seen, I don't think the Russians would hold half the territory they currently do. The concern I have is the reliance the Ukrainians have on Western supplies and what happens when something causes that supply to slow down. I only need to think back a few months to the unnecessary territory ceded to the Russians simply because of the uncertainty over availability of shells and heavy equipment.
Pound for pound the Ukrainians wipe the floor with the Russian army.
I'm just enjoying the current gains being made… I don't know/ feel the need to know what the ultimate plan here is (or if it is a high level plan only, leaving lots of scope to adapt as things on the ground change), so posts like yours are always interesting.
This is getting underplayed by everyone concerned
Ukraine is bombarding Russian infrastructure while on the move at considerable pace.
Surreal
There’s a very interesting long read today here
PUTIN IS VULNERABLE: WESTERN POLICY MASKS RUSSIAN WEAKNESS:
The thing is, in most of the countries that count, production capacity, and actual production of military hardware is improving with every single day. Rheinmetall in Germany is building new production facilities for tank and artillery shells, the IRIS-T assembly lines are being scaled up massively, production for Gepard SPAAG systems is moving along at speed, and so on. With every day that passes, Ukraine's supply lines improve. Is the level of supply where I'd like it to be? Of course not, but we've come a long way from the days when all Ukraine got was some life-expired MANPADS. Now granted, I may be biased towards the contributions made by Germany, primarily because I'm German myself and as such a native speaker of that language, but nearly every time I check ither a German news website or the the Federal Government's Ukraine subpage, I see new equipment being delivered, and not just the "sexy" stuff such as Patriot SAMs or tanks, but the mundane logistical stuff that keeps an army running.
One less problem for Ukraine
And the bad news,
Seems the Russians finally hit one
Wow. It only took them two years to hit one.
Thats seriously impressive for the shoot and scoot platform.
Will need to try and figure out why it got hit now. An error or a new system / procedure in use by Russia.
Looks like it was spotted by a Russian Drone and tracked and fired upon once targeted by a Russian missile. It's a wonder it doesn't happen more often.
Maybe its the pessimist in me, but I'm very aware of how quickly the political winds can change. Its not just a question of production within Western countries, but where that production goes. We're already looking at a tinderbox in the middle east. A lot of the production will be to replace and re-stock Western weapons, munitions and hardware that was sent to Ukraine.
Productions desperately needed to be kicked into gear. I just hope that the US continues to throw its weight behind Ukraine's efforts to boot Putin off their land, that the EU doesn't fracture in its resolve, that the likes of Orban don't manage to put a stick in the spokes of supply chain issues, and that nothing kicks off in the middle east that might divert money, materials and focus away from what needs to be done in Ukraine.
If you think back to where we were in Spring this year, there's no doubt however that Ukraine is currently riding a wave, which is great.
The ISW report few posts up makes it clear that a conflict with Iran is bad for Russia as it stretches their stocks if they help Iran and kills the “alliance” if they don’t
Not to mention Israel are on a warpath against anyone involved in October 6th, a list which includes Russia
Perhaps they can send some goats 🐐 like they done to North Korea
Meanwhile them F16s will get some goodies
Those jalopies are very old.
I don't think that is the first. I've seen at least two videos claiming to he HIMARS hits. Looked like it too.
They could teach Israel and Hamas a lot about how to maintain at least some ethical standards in war
Italian reporters in Sudzha interviewing locals
Meanwhile Russians are copying their HAMAS buddies and not wearing military uniforms, which is a war crime
It's a great wave but we've been here before in autumn 2022 when the Russians seemed to be falling apart and many were predicting they'd collapse utterly and Putin would be ousted in no time. Instead 2023 was a terrible year for Ukraine militarily (for Russia too, let it be said). I'm probably over cautious but I still think it's way too early to say where this ends. BBC has an opinion piece (no more than that) saying there is a risk of Ukraine overplaying its hand, while the guardian also quotes some Ukrainian soldiers in Donetsk complaining about some of the best Ukrainian troops being taken away from where they're most needed. Nothing to cause alarm but as usual behind the headlines there's a hell of a lot going on, the momentum is very promising, but a lot can and will happen from here, let's hope it keeps going in a positive direction...
Are those inhabitants in Sudzha not inviting very harsh retribution if and when the Russians return?
Oh, believe me, I'm with ya, reading the news these days often only serves to reinforce my lack of faith in mankind. However, a lot of the changes being made at the moment affect pretty long-lead items or even the production lines themselves, even if things kick off for real in the middle east, those should be unaffected. Besides, the likes of Rheinmetall etc. have very deep pockets, and they'll make sure to pay off whoever is in power to keep their contracts going.
I say the smart ones can clearly see their chance to gain cushy refugee status in Europe now and be leaving down the humanitarian corridors being setup
It was 1 inhabitant in that interview who referred to them as "The Russians", not "our soldiers".
And the questioning was a bit obvious also, 🙂. "Are the Ukrainians kind?"
Looks like a fair amount of Russian surrenders today.
Both sides also seemed to have carried out successful ambushes too.
These reports always tend to jump ahead..
So far the info is "No final decision has been made on sending the missile, but the administration is working through the complicated details now, according to one Biden administration official."
But on X it's"F-16 are getting JASSMs". Probably not any time soon, though.
From:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/biden-missiles-ukraine-russia-00174147
