Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
Are you speculating that Trump and Putin would do a "deal" and announce "peace" without the involvement or consent of Ukrainians? Shows what a dangerous sh*t Trump is (never mind Putin, who we know about already).
Meanwhile, back in Kursk…
https://x.com/i/status/1823370909454864870
Him falling out a window would make quite a mess.
It would be awfully unfortunate if Lukashenko were suffer some unexplained calamity that took him out of the political picture and pushed Belarus into revolution. Russia would need to apportion even more forces to put that fire out.
Russia not only withdrew in 2001
But regularly use chemical weapons in Ukraine (and Syria)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Protocol
Does the Geneva Convention apply equally to the party to a conflict that is the aggressor and to the party that is the aggressee?
To hard to pin down the distinction?
To my untrained eye it feels like the aggressee shoukd be able to use any necessary force since it is in self defence but I doubt that a law can be framed to reflect that moral position.
personally, in a situation where war crimes are committed against you… think as depraved as your cozy life allows… and all available means of getting the rats out of your state are morally acceptable, imo.
The bot farm posting on X is fairly intense from the Kremlin. Posting app links with shaded pictures just so you'd click and be caught in some cyber way.
It's another reason it'd be a bonus if the whole Kremlin were on a bus and the bus went off a cliff. Elon could be on the roof when it happens.
Yes, it is a war crime. Not that the Geneva Conventions ever caused any loss of sleep for Putin or his regime.
If the shoe was on the other foot, its what the Russians would do, but Ukraine, I doubt it….its against the Geneva Conventions for one thing, and so far, Ukraine has been holding the moral high ground, and rightly so.
There were quite a few glide bomb assaults today and yesterday by the Russians. I was hoping that the incursion might facilitate better targeting of those airfields and munitions storage depots now that Ukraine are a little closer to them.
Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
and what about those ‘ordinary Russians’ that came out in Dublin /surrounds with their slogan Ed cars supporting Putin and his war????
Yes, Iran is about the only state who may have a chance of escaping the clutches of Radical Fundamentalist Islam, and that's because they remember a pre-Islamic revolution Iran and would dearly love it back. If they succeed, (and I hope they will) that will be the last time Religion of any shape size or description will be allowed anywhere the Iranian Ballot boxes. It will become the most secular country in the world, with Constitutional changes that completely rule out any kind of religious participation. If or more likely when that happens, I could see massive retaliation against individual Mullahs and their Mosques.
The most important psychological impact of Ukraine invading is scrambling the Russian military dynamic from attack to not being sure where to defend next.
Logistically for Ukraine the priority of this attack is the least amount of casualities in return for maximum chaos for Russia.
It would undermine Russia confidence even more if Ukraine suddenly retreated but then invaded again somewhere else by surprise.
Is that not a war crime?
Just need to poison one to put the fear into them
This is what it looks like to me…. get in somewhere relatively easily, cause a bit of havoc & force Russia to react in the only way they can (losing lots of men & equipment), then when it looks like Russia can finally brute force the region back under control (losing even more men/equipment, as well as pounding the sh1t out of the area with artillery), then the very mobile AFU units simply pull out, leaving some nice surprises behind.. Then just go again somewhere else, and wait for the inevitable meat waves to come at them, get some nice target practice and pull out….. The more they kill in Russia the less they'll have to kill in Ukraine…
And as someone above mentioned, it would be very motivating for any AFU soldiers getting picked to go over the border…
Maybe Ukraine want to try force Putin into a general mobilisation.. as once the middle class kids of Moscow & St. Petersburg start dying in fields of nothingness, hopefully Swan Lake might quickly follow…
Sounds like them drones need to start dropping rat poison into every stream and lake along the front
I would imagine they'll smash and grab until there's a sizeable force coming their way, then mine the area and retreat back to Ukrainian borders.
Hopefully rinse and repeat somewhere else until Rus has to pull frontline troops back to defend the home country.
Not only were the dumb fuks marching but also digging trenches😕
I recon plan is that they don’t want to be bogged down in trench warfare which favours Russian meat grinder tactics
Russian system is not able to think fast and adapt due to its self imposed political constraints, neither can they have another mobilisation without causing more issues for Putin, we’ve already seen both army and FSB gain and lose Putin’s confidence in containing this in last week
I suspect the second shoe is yet to drop, we don’t know how many operatives and what equipment Budanov used to hide in the panic and outflow of civilians, I would not be surprised if there is an uptick in strange sabotage operations in surround oblasts, which will put further manpower demands on Russians as their country is simply too big to defend everywhere, especially against opponents who speak same language and look same and know the culture
What do people reckon is the medium term plan here for the Ukrainians?
The more Russian land they take the larger the new internal Russian front-line is going to be, the harder it will be to defend it. They also increase the length of their supply lines the further they go into Russia. Essentially they will run into all of the same problems that Russia ran into themselves when they first invaded in 2022.
At some point will they stop, dig in and build fortifications?
Boom
They only have to hold it for 2 months until the Rasputista starts in October. There will then be little change in the front line before April 2025. The Ukrainians definitely intend holding the taken ground. It's their insurance policy against Trump appeasement.
It wasn't heavily militarized, that is exactly why Ukraine attacked it.
Whether it is 800 sq km or 1200 sq km isn't all that important.
Some of the the important questions are:
What is the quality of those positions? Can they be defended?
How many personal will Russia have to redeploy from the front to retake it? How many will they redeploy to defend other parts of the front that aren't well defended.
Will the redeployment of troops create opportunities in other parts of the front?
Will Russia deploy the same tactics in Russia as they do in Ukraine?
At the very least Russia will have to use a large amounts ammunitions/mines on Russian soil rather than Ukraine.
The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. At Rotterdam, London, Warsaw, and half a hundred other places, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.
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If (big if, but not beyond realm of possibility) Ukrainians do manage to hold onto these lands for more than few months
I fully expect the Putin brigade to tell us “Oh Kursk was never Russia” just like they now insist there was no attempt to drive on Kiev and few months ago on Kharkiv
the amount of km2 is meaningless, whether its 1,000 or 10,000. What's important is the bloody nose that Russia has received, the knock to morale, the dilemma of redeploying troops, the psychological impact of being invaded, and the populace seeing their military as powerless to stop it.
It's one thing to have a war in a foreign country, another to have it in your own back yard.
People are saying 1000km2 is nothing, For context Co.Dublin is 950km2, to capture that heavily militarized area in under a week is pretty impressive imo.
^ and Belarus just hand it over, of course
Russia must really be struggling
