Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
Denys Davydov has suggested that most of the 650km² is probably "grey zone" rather than fully controlled, and that some/many of the more remote settlements have probably just been visited by reconnaisance forces, not actually conquered.
However, perhaps Ukraine is thinking that, if they clear any particular town or townland of regular Russian military and police, they can hand control over to members of the Free Russia Legion/Russian Volunteer Corps while they move on to other things.
There's also the possibility that either the UAF or the FRL/RVC might send someone up the road to have a "friendly chat" with the lads in the next garrison and offer them the choice of all expenses paid trip to Ukraine if they hand over the keys quickly, or a have a swarm of FPV drones and a Himars or two visit them that evening.
I would like to think that Budanov & Co. took the trouble to learn lessons from Prigozhin's escapade and figured out an effective not-so-lethal strategy for making slower but more durable progress towards Moscow. In reality, all they really need is a 50-100km buffer zone along the whole border and any negotiations will get a whole lot simpler.
It’s a bit disingenuous to insist on “has BBC confirmed it” line in one post and in next post go off and quote a different publication yourself
But that’s the last I am engaging with you
I never claimed Ukraine was trying to grab land and hold it. On the contrary, I said surely that can't be the plan as it didn't seem realistic.
As for "destabilising" Russia, that's an official quote directly from reliable Ukrainian sources in a story on the guardian, another source I generally trust (or do you think that's a Kremlin mouthpiece as well? Wouldn't surprise me if you do...):
As for the last part of your post, I actually agree completely based on the picture emerging. I think it's a great move, I just hope it all works out and as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible get out alive when it's over.
Actually you're wrong about that as well, it ran an article at least 4 days ago reporting on Kursk at a time when Zelensky's office was refusing to confirm anything. At least do a bit of research before posting such nonsense:
You keep making statements that this is
Has the BBC confirmed this?
IMHO this clearly is an attempt to relieve pressure from other areas, areas where throwing more troops into meatgrinder would have just played into Russian “rules of the game” and Ukraine said **** that and made up new “rules” by literally thinking outside the box
If I go back to that time Russians tried to reach Kharkiv in a few days will I also find “genuine questions” from you or more rhetoric that very closely matches what comes out of Kremlin at the time?
There has been no official statements as to aims of this “special military operation” all I can go on is its effects on Russia which are as per evidence we see daily
BBC took 6 days to even admit there are Ukrainians in Kursk and only after a statement by Zelensky saying so
Yes, it's not perfect and sometimes might even be a bit slower to confirm things, but I'll take that over random twitter dudes who'll post anything sensational for the sake of a few clicks often without providing any reliable source, knowing someone gullible will repost.
I expect it'll be another week or two till we get any in depth insight into what has happened this week, particularly as the situation is clearly still rapidly evolving with minimum official communication about it. Will be fascinating when the full background does emerge
Indeed,I view the BBC par excellence as going through all the online reports and trying to verify them(not just publishing reports immediately so as to get a scoop)
Imagine if we didn't have them and their team of online checkers.
It would be the cacophony of the Tower of Babel(still is but they and their likes can apply some sort of a brake)
.(I know they had censorship during WW2...)
So many of these twitter claims turn out to be wild exaggerations aimed at boosting morale. BBC more reliable source and much more restrained in its claims
Who are these "pro Russian" posters you're talking about? All I see are people asking genuine questions about a bold move the logic of which was quite unclear at the start, but which is now becoming more apparent as an active and hopefully successful attempt to "destabilise" Russia.
At the same time, I remember during the Prigozhin uprising people creaming themselves in excitement, predicting a popular uprising and Putin's imminent downfall. We know how that one ended. Still very unclear how this one will play out. It's an extremely ballsy move by the Ukrainians though, no arguing with that, but none of us know how it will end
Any other reports?How trustworthy is that twitter report ? I just see speculation in it.
Fingers crossed ,though.
Last week more captured than Russians in a year
Multiple reports of a train carrying tanks being ambushed
Russian soldiers can make all the calls home they want but it would a hell of a lot more to get the people to actually do something under the conditions they live under Putin .There is still little sign that the more well heeled Russians are being affected much by the distant war , unless that changes the people will do nothing only take in what Putin puts out unfortunately.
I think Ukraine could have stretched further and more quickly but would have been massively exposed. There's a discipline in how they've conducted the operation so far that has held them back as much as any stubborn Russian defensive lines both of which they crossed in the first 48 hours.
Add POWs to your list. Several hundred Russians captured alive and treated with a certain amount of dignity are going to be making phone calls home to their families painting a very different picture of the situation to that described by the Kremlin. Ukraine is doing everything it can to make sure Ukrainian families get all of their people back.
"There are big risks for Ukraine in this"
"There are big risks for Ukraine
Not to carp , but what big risks are there apart from being overextended and so surrounded?
Were you thinking of other additional major dangers in this operation?
Political risks?
Really starting to get this attack from Ukraine
There are big risks for Ukraine in this, but as long as they keep that avenue to Ukraine open, then they can always do a strategic retreat
Nice
The average Joeski will react how Putin tells them to. Putin may not have prosecuted the war itself so well but it looks like he's been quite efficient in quelling domestic dissent. The demonstrations of dissatisfaction which do pop up, you soon don't hear about anymore.
However, I welcome the Russian people to prove me wrong.
A very observant poster on Twitter noticed that it appears to be the Lubyanka in the background. And this is indeed where these two bozos seem to be bringing this poor, old man to for denunciation.
Does the KGB still operate its torture chambers out of the basement there?
Which troops are you asking about.
If Ukraine actually have the manpower to extend the frontline like this it could get interesting. I'm actually surprised Russia has wasted so many troops trying to attack the most fortified areas over the last 9 month's. Surely they'd have been better off attacking the less fortified border with Ukraine.
If they've largely exhausted their army and Ukraine has preserved theirs this could turn out to be huge. Russia would need another massive mobilization and I don't think the economy would react to well to that. Or the average Joeski.
It's also been reported on Sky and elsewhere. I'm aware of info in the rest of your post and only wanted to know the details of the incident, hoping that the Russians didn't do any or much damage to the Ukrainians. There still don't appear to be any details anywhere.
And what condition are these troops in regarding armoir morale etc seems they can’t make much advances on the frontline?
Maybe yes. But the scenario you set out is totally bizarre, and not only because of the danger of a nuclear resonse. Why on earth would Ukraine waste valuable manpower on such an adventure?
So Ukraine can redraw slowly from Kursk while still fighting, there's no defensive positions but they can still inflict damage on advancing reinforcements. I'd love to see a push on the frontline where Russia have moved troops from.
End of the day, it be easier and less costly for Ukraine to kill Russian soldiers on Russian soil!
We may be starting to see the reason behind this tactic.
They'll probably pull troops mostly from across the river in Kherson rather then the Zaporozhye front. Might be an opportunity for Ukrainian marines to secure a decent bridgehead across the river again.
Mission accomplished
Troops being pulled from elsewhere right into ambushes
That's a roll of 1 for initiative. I'm starting to think they had no plans for fighting on Russian soil, but that could never be, right?
Was this Ukraine’s plan all along?
Hold the Russians at arms length for the last year until this surprise offensive.
Was the “failed” counter offensive all part of the plan?
It was Russia's own Trucks driving on the road, not advancing UAF. Caused a panic on Russian telegram channels
