Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
A good time for Ukraine to counter attack
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-railway-collapse-sanctions-ukraine-war-1935049
Balls of steel on the Ukrainians. Absolute balls of steel.
They do that and Russia is finished as a country indefinitely.
Some speculation that collapsing the Russian railway network is one of the aims of this incursion into Russian territory.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/head-hungarys-mol-sees-no-reason-wean-off-russian-oil-2024-08-05/
The Ukrainian advance into Russian Kursk comes a day after the above statement by the head of Hungarian Gas group, and shortly after Orbans Hijacking of the EU presidency to use as a propaganda tool for his pro Russian views. Ukraine have now captured the control station for all Russian gas exports into Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech republic. I am not speculating that this is sole reason for the advance, but it is certainly something that will reduce the strings in Orbans bow.
Hard to guess the AFU's plan here; which is well done because the Russians are likely as blind as we are.
I wonder: Could they actually be making a move to take Belgorod? The place is pretty much key to the Northern Front, and my guess is that the Russians never banked on an AFU advance here. Can the current Russian army defend a large town / city against an army that's shown itself to be pretty excellent at urban warfare? Do they have any plans for such a situation?
My uneducated guess here is that the Russians had no plan for any of this, and that an actual attempt on Belgorod might trigger a panic along this front.
Once the AFU get past the Russian defensive earthworks I think they nearly have free reign of the countryside. If the AFU have a good plan to back this up, then the Russian might face a very serious threat to their Special Military Operation
Full text (in Russian) is here: https://teletype.in/@hidden.tyan/kak_zhit
But how come, given that SVO (Special Military Operation) is going on successfully, with little bloodshed, on a foreign territory, and the goals of the SVO (whatever they are) are being met on time?
Well, maybe yes, but not here. Here you have to live somehow under occupation.
It so occurred, that for some little renumeration provided by the government and Ministery of Sciences, I studied the subject and wrote books just on this topic. And later I saw something on my own. Let me explain you what's what.
Well, because nobody gives a damn. You and I, defending us is not listed among the goals of SVO, and is not a part of any report. There is not a single officer responsible for our safety, no military headquarter is working on it. They are interested in taking New York for the 5-th time (because the name is so nice), all the five houses that are there, and may be get a medal.
We are not interesting for the volunteers and war correspondents. We live a "wealthy peaceful life" and should donate our last ruble to the construction works in Mariupol.
We had conscripts and cops guarding the border. Not Rosguardia, just regular cops. When bombs started to fall on my city, a Russian city of a size of half-million people, we didn't get any Air Defence, not a single anty-drone weapon! Our hospitals are not for us, but for the soldiers. We also don't need electricity, yeah, right!
We are not interesting for Moscow, they don't even need Donbass any more. All they think of is Kiev, nothing else.
They will fight to take us back without any hurry, if at all. Because the one who screws up, will be stripped of his military rank. So, it's easier to hold it off until the peace talks.
For now we are only interestiong to ourselves. Let that sink in.
There will be bad and restless Nothing.
You know, Ukrainians ("khohly" in the original text) don't need us, and we are of no interest to them. They won't "ukrainize" us as the TV says. Because it is expensive and they there is nothing to take from us.
Thanks to our government and political party, we have bread. Very useful thing, but Ukraine has that too. We have some parts of the gas pipe, but we were deprived of access to it anyways. We also have roads to Moscow, so, there you go.
They don't need our soil, because there is zero benefit from it. They are here just to mow down our army.
For Ukrainians we are just a furniture. They have their reasons to hate us, but actually they don't have time for that - Ukrainian army does sharp and dodgy maneuvers, this is how they stay alive. We are just a part of the landscape, and even that is not for a long time.
We will be targeted by Iskander and Caliber missiles. Actually, it's Ukrainians that will be targeted, but because we always lack fire correction drones, they gonna shot as they did in Kiev - wanted to hit an airbase, but struck a children's hospital. Because what can they do, they have to liberate us.
Then the liberators come. Since our direction is of the 3d priority, they will sent Z-Shtorm troops (prisoners) and other merry men, to clear the ground.
But don't worry. They will not come until Ukrainians leave.
AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) don't care about us, they actually wage war, not like Akhmatov troops. Therefore, they won't repair an electric substation or a water pump station wrecked by our missiles, except that let us do it ourselves. And when it comes to medical care, their combat medics will do that only on holidays or in their free time.
You can try to leave, Ukrainians still provide "safe corridors". But I can tell you from my own experience, at Russian checkpoints you will be stripped of everything you manage to escape with, except the clothes and things you wear. And in any Russian city you won't be able to rent a place to stay. Because "you will anyways leave in a month"
But you should still try.
And if you decide to stay, this is what you have to understand:
A) Stock up on water at any occasion. It will get difficult to clean it very soon. Ukrainians will let you use the same water pump as they use, but the queues will be long.
B) Stock up on food. Cereals. Canned food. Ask your parents how they lived in 90s. Very soon money will be out of use. Especially rubles - as soon as those who planned to leave finally do it.
C) Stock on medicines. What will be left after militaries, will be brought off the shelves by speculators.
D) You should always carry your ID. Always. Kids should have their own IDs, and they should carry them, not you. It's easy to get lost in a city with closed roads, and extremely easy if you have to get from a city to a suburb.
E) If you have a place to stay somewhere else, it's better to leave the city. If you don't, don't try because you will be driven away, in the best case.
F) Bunch up, it's better to stay with you fiends in a bigger apartment. Don't leave the apartment without extreme need. And not just by night, by day as well, as the SVO veterans sometimes want to eat as well.
G) Street patrols are not there for your safety but for their's. They are not a police, they don't have to drop everything and sort out your complaints, but in case of a dire need they may help you. But remember, you have to treat them with respect, say everything clear and repeat if asked so. They don't need you, but you might need them sometimes.
H) Don't you dare to have fun loudly. If you are into drinking - time to drop it. You like to get scandaluos with your neighbors - sew up you mouth. If you become a problem not for Ukrainians but for your surrounding - this problem will be dealt with quickly.
I) Don't wear any patches with Russian flag, St George strips (orange/black stripes) or Z-patches. Russia doesn't give a **** about it, no one will know about if, even if someone learns about it - he will laugh at you. But you don't have to irritate people on whom it depends how you gonna live. You won't get killed, but many questions will be asked.
J) Your complaints about you neighbor that he is a member of the party United Russia are pointless. No one will make you a city mayor, because no one needs a city mayor. But if a polite person with an SBU ID (Security Service of Ukraine) asks you where is a district police officer - you better answer. Because for the district police officer it makes no difference, but you don't need problems.
K) Ukrainians will manage all the job assignment. There are no illusions about that. For you this will make a little difference - either you keep your old job, if you are lucky or you are an electrician, for example. Or you don't have a job at all, like if you are into marketing. Of course you can proudly refuse to work, but no one gives a ****. But the Motherland won't feed your family. Neither now, nor any time later.
L) ZSU doesn't need translators. Policemen - I doubt it, and if so - not too soon. The jobs that can be prodived will be received by those whom no questions need to be asked.
M) But if you neighbor asks you to join a partisan squad - you better report on him. He is not wishing you any good. As we know from Kherson, Odesa and Kharkiv, SBU quickly catches these underground agents, and puts them in jail for a long term. You are serponsible for your kids, and for your parents actually too.
N) Make use of the experience from Ukrainians. When our army gets to bomb us - listen to Ukrainian air raid sirens, they are very precise. Take shelter and keep in mind the rule of two walls, hide in a shower room or in a corridor.
O) Btw, talking about the experience of Ukrainians. A power generator is a good thing for the time being, until you run out of gas. Everybody will run out of gas. Later the gas will get back, but not for everybody.
P) And finally - stop reading news. Ukrainian news are not for you - these people have different problems. Russian news are also not for you, there nobody gives a damn about us, we spoil the picture. This is the way and the only way to live through until the end of all this ****. And then ask our leaders and heroes, what the **** was all this?
But they won't answer. Because who are we to hold them accountable?
Surprising sober and pragmatic advice to the Russians facing occupation in the area.
My gut feeling is that, if Ukraine do actually occupy the area for a while, then they have the potential to seriously hurt the Kremlin by treating the local Russians nicely.
If the occupation forces do a decent enough job to ensure that the locals have enough water, fuel and food, while showing them a degree of kindness & patience, that could massively damage the messaging the Russians have been pushing about Ukraine. The locals might even find themselves better off in an AFU occupation zone than under Putin's control. Thanks to the likes of Telegram it would be difficult to filter out good news coming out from these areas if it goes this way.
Russian Nuclear Doctrine is deliberately vague. It states that nuclear weapons can be used in the case of military aggression where the existence of the Russian State is at risk. Putin can't logically say that this justifies nuclear weapons without admitting that the existence of the Russian state is at risk. However, as with everything, the published doctrine can be at variance with what actually happens.
This exactly. The worst thing Ukraine could do is go scorched earth as previously suggested.
I think it's as simple as strike your opponent where they are weak, which is as old as Sun Tzu. They might try to dig in, knowing that Russia will have to throw everything at them there, and to cause horrific casualty ratios. It might have secondary objectives of redirecting troops from Vovchansk, cutting logistics to Belgorod/Donbas, political victory and proof of concept for further use of US vehicles in attacks on Russian soil. The fact that Ukraine has an advantage in mobile warfare but a potential disadvantage in attritional warfare also makes it a sensible option.
Fighting to take a city is a dangerous business. The relative success of Ukraine over Russia in urban warfare is reflective of the fact that Ukraine were defending, not that they have superior troops or tactics for the task. But you don't actually have to take a city at all - merely by threatening to do so can cause difficulty for Russia.
In terms of Russia being blind, I suspect that Ukraine has not only kept things tight from an operational security point of view, but they have also contributed to misinformation by underplaying it, saying it was just a stunt etc. Ukraine are beating Russia at Russia's own game it seems!
You don't seem to know russians well. And you seem to think they are decent like any normal nation. Well they are not. Ukrainian kindness will backfire. russkies will take any kindness/helping hand offered, abuse it, and then backstab. Ukrainians will save them but russkies will still glorify putin. and laugh at Ukrainian naivness
Do you own thing by all means, but Trent is way out of his depth on many, many issues.
🤣🤣
Germans tried this once, didn't work out to well for them
This offensive really opens a can of worms for Putin
Even if ultimately Ukrainians are pushed back here this will be remembered as what Russian Kharkiv offensive of few months ago was meant to be
A post here on one of the drivers in February for pickups4peace convoy.
War is won by logistics and supply to the frontline.
25KM from Kursk NPP now
Two "lines of defence" apparently is what has been breached.
Good post @johnnyskeleton - We're all still at the speculation phase of the primary objective but a few of us were hoping for a similar strike for a long time as Wagner and the Russian mercenary groups demonstrated clear weakness here.
It's fantastic to see Ukraine were clearly taking notes. Their rapid advance in Luhansk has likely also turned into an excellent experience for them in relation to mobile warfare. And still without air superiority. Where's the Russian Airforce? Off poking at Swedish airspace or something more productive maybe.
Todays ISW update should be interesting this is from the 7th
Still advancing
I dont know if it's very clever psyops, but lots of footage going around of large amounts of Russians just not fighting and giving up
Relevant
Some further thoughts
Only criticism I heard is that these troops should have been sent to critical areas in Donbass, but IMHO Ukraine won’t win this by using Russian meat grinder tactics, and if it pulls troops out then that be help for those in Donbass
russia hasn't seen an invasion of it's territory like this since 1941 when hitler invaded with operation Barbarossa. Imagine what that does to the fragile ego of the russian bully. russians have been going to great pains to stop it's troops from sharing videos of the war on the front but social media will spread this like wildfire in russia and cause panic.
Only posting this one now as I've seen it reported a few times earlier this morning. This could be up to 1,000 troops if true.
Edit: Just in follow up to that. Will there be a few more POWs?
Imagine what it's like being part of this incursion. It's been, what, 72 hours? The adrenaline must be insane. Like, how would you be able to even sleep? You're deep in enemy territory and near constantly on the move. You can't exactly rent a hotel room. You probably can't set up field tents because the safety of your surroundings is unknown. Hell, even frontline trenches have sleeping quarters. So, how do they keep going?
They have a secure corridor back to Ukraine by the looks of it so surely they're rotating troops and the injured in and out freely. The fog of war is heavy so who really knows what's happening.
I hope there is a very beneficial endgame to this incursion as its very high risk. One thing to attack a country and spread deep and wide where the abilty to retreat into your own territory is greatly enhance but having battalions heading off on narrow spits where the potential to get isolated is extremely high risk. If this is just a finger in the eye to Putin, I don't think its worth it. If however it allows them to destroy essential logistics of get at the Russian Aircraft or glide bomb storage then its possibly worth it.
If you've been fighting to defend a tyrant from destroying your homeland for 2.5 years, and have faith that your military and political leadership have your backs, and have the memory of lost friends, relatives and comrades… I'd say the adrenalin lasts a long time. Like I say, balls of steel. But with smarts as well. You absolutely love to see it.
