Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
I take your point but I suspect that that was one of the doubles.
The rule of thumb with Putin is - if you see him around regular people then it's likely not him. Plus this guy was hugging and kissing those people getting off of the plane. Also had a slightly different look to him
Reminded me of the "Putin" that went to Mariupol last year
I've said it before, the Kremlin's hitmen are the ones with all the incriminating evidence, so Putin takes great care of them (note how he met them personally)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/aug/02/russia-us-prisoner-swap-evan-gershkovich-paul-whelan-vadim-krasikov
Already seen claims of one shot down. Using a photo from a US Air National Guard crash a few years back.
Nice comment: give them a 30 day subscription to Crowdstrike.
With news outlets coving this spy swap deal some will make reference to the one that happened in 2010. For anyone interested in all that kind of stuff, I’d highly recommend a book called Russians Among Us by Gordon Corera. It captures the dozen or so deep cover Russians (“illegals” as they don’t have diplomatic immunity like normal government spies) who embedded themselves into ordinary American life (by stealing the birth certs of long dead US kids) in the 90’s/00’s with the aim of trying to weed their way into political and economic circles. They then reported everything back to Moscow but thankfully none of them really got anywhere or into positions to influence.
The FBI cottoned onto what they were up to, tracked them until they had evidence of their actions and rounded them all up in 2010. They were then all swapped for 3 Russians, one of whom was Sergei Skripal of Salisbury poisoning fame. Another was a guy called Alexander Zhaporovsky who apparently informed the CIA of the existence of another mole in their ranks outside of the ones who were identified in the decade or so before (Aldrich Ames and Robert Hansen if anyone recognises those names). Robert Baer’s book The Fourth Man tells this still unsolved story.
I’m absolutely fascinated with all this kind of stuff, would love if anyone could recommend similar reading!
"This is only a prelude to more interesting events"
I like the sound of that. Heady days indeed!
Hehe
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-concluded-one-of-the-largest-cyberattacks-against-russia-source-says/
A russian soldier's account of the war.
Great to see that Vladimir Kara-Murza has also been released. He's already been poisoned twice. I thought that he would surely die in prison, just like Navalny.
The Guardian's Article on the exchange:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/01/evan-gershkovich-other-foreign-citizens-freed-russia-prisoner-swap
Yeh multiple articles now, let it be a lesson to anyone to avoid going near Mordor
Looks like they convinced the Germans to give up a KGB assassin in order to get them out.
some good news
You know Vlad has been pissing on about nukes since the first aid packet to Ukraine. 😁
F16's over Ukraine. T-minus 5 seconds until the concern-trolls come in "asking" why Ukraine is not immediately taking back all territory and defeating Russia in an instant.
I believe that western militaries are learning from this war. For example, UK MOD are looking to accelerate development of laser weaponry like DragonFire. Their director of strategic programs said:
The DragonFire trials at the Hebrides demonstrated that our world-leading technology can track and engage high-end effects at range. In a world of evolving threats we know that our focus must be on getting capability to the warfighter and we will look to accelerate this next phase of activity.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/13/europe/britain-air-defense-laser-dragonfire-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
To be honest, what they really have to learn is that large stockpiles of artillery are always needed. The previous idea of industries ramping up and delivering on-time when something like this occurs is the stuff of dreams.
Now that F16's are in Ukraine I'm assuming Russian nukes are on the way. If you happen to read this, God speed.
There was a certain European country that took that approach in the last century. It can work as long as you don't overstep.
Which is precisely what China will hope for if they start a war, attrition and using their industrial capacity to overwhelm
There aren’t observers on ground embedded with platoons
I don't think that it's a fair assessment to say that western militaries aren't learning the lessons. They are choosing which lessons to learn.
For example, static defenses went out of favour in the west but are making a major comeback. The Baltic states in particular are spending a lot of money on bunkers and training hard for trench warfare, while stockpiling tank traps, dragons teeth, landmines etc
https://www.joint-forces.com/exercise-news/70682-nato-allies-train-hard-in-the-trenches-in-estonia
Weapons systems that have proved effective are seeing significant production increases:
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/02/19/lockheed-himars-production-60/#google_vignette
The fact that NATO countries consider a Russian invasion unlikely and a war of attrition undesireable does not mean that they are not learning lessons and taking steps and learning lessons from Ukraine. Likewise, the fact that they haven't collectively decided that we are all back to WW1 tactics and to forget F35s etc is a good thing.
The extent to which western militaries should reorientate towards a war with Russia, and more specifically a war of attrition with Russia, is debatable. Perhaps they should do it a bit more. But there are other considerations that must be taken into account and, with the exception of say the Baltic States and Poland, it would be unwise to go all in on trench warfare preparation.
Why do you think western militaries aren't paying extremely close attention to how this war is fought and with what? It's clear to everyone air defense is a big problem - you can't defeat cheap drones using very expensive anti-air missiles, for example.
There will never be enough Patriot missiles, not enough is being produced in the world.
Finally. Another step in the right direction.
I wonder how long it will take the Russians to claim they shot down more than were actually delivered.
F-16 flying over Lviv Ukraine
The ukrainians were brought up in the Russian military. They know the strengths and weaknesses of the Russian army. They know how to defeat the Russian army. They wouldn't have fought back if they didn't think they had them. It was the hesitancy of supply of arms to Ukraine that slowed progress/defence and or maybe the US used some stone cold Artificial Intelligence and asked what strategy would be best to bring regime change to Russia and get Ukraine their country back without fsb going allah akbar around the world in terrorist attacks.
On the drones. It's a new age of warfare. Facial recognition, heat infrared camera technology, number plate ID, autonomous flying and positioning and targeting. And now drone manufacturing getting cheaper all the time.
Interesting point made that last year western armchair generals were giving out at Ukrainians during their offensive that they moved slow and didn’t capture much, but it’s the Russians this year that are facing the same problems in their assaults where they get obliterated mainly thanks to drones everywhere
Imho these lessons are completely passing western militaries by, militaries that should be closely watching and learning and helping
Slightly off topic but very well said.
That's it. (IMO) the US/Western hesitancy and fear throughout this (over last 2+ years) and fact that Putin possibly could still "win" by his own lights if corrupt pro-Russia politicians can just get themselves elected in some key countries by hook or by crook keeps it grinding on. He's effectively hoping something will turn up eventually to swing things in his/Russia's favour. I hope it is a gambler's fallacy from Putin, but I suppose when he values the lives of his own "subjects" at almost zero, he's willing to keep betting.
We'll not know for sure until the war is over but wouldn't it be fantastic if Ukraine aren't actually losing many soldiers, Russia eventually get worn down and Ukraine go on the attack. Could take 2 years to reach this point. I've no doubt if Ukraine can stop the aerial glide bombs Russia are fucked in terms of damaging the Ukrainians. They are currently a huge asset and most of Ukrainians losses are probably to these.
