I'd say Model 3 or Y have already achieved price parity.
Far far cheaper than the German "premium" cars.
Similar to the standard VAG offerings, VW, Skoda once you spec them up anywhere near a 3/Y.
Cheaper than an equivalent Toyota.
Cheaper than an equivalent Hyundai.
I mean price parity for all types of car and SUVs but yes you're probably correct but it's not comparing like with like due to range.
Also I mean price parity without grant and not taking total cost of ownership into account. So when that happens, it's a huge tipping point. It basically means it makes no sense to buy an ICE. You'd be paying more money for an inferior car which is more expensive to run.
I think price parity for total cost of ownership including grant might have already happened. I'm not certain though.
Do you honestly think ice cars will be unavailable in 11 years time
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/07/01/new-electric-car-sales-down-25-in-first-half-of-year/
The nearly 25% share of Diesel of 2024 sales - I'm assuming this includes light commercials like vans etc?
New cars yes
Time will tell, but with the hardening towards green politics in Europe and current hammering of EVs in the media I find it hard to comprehend there will be no new ice cars for sale in Europe in 11 years time, though if it comes to pass Europe will be the first to introduce a ban on new ice sales.
It is EU law for a start. The way the new parliament is constituted it's highly unlikely to be repealed in it's 5 year term and Von Der Leyen's program makes no mention of repealing the Act. That leaves just 6 years to run when the next parliament convenes in 2029.
By the time 2029 comes along the EV transition will have snowballed. Next year requires a 15% emissions reduction compared to 2021 on all new ICE cars sold, followed by even greater emissions reductions at the end of the decade.
Plus manufacturers plan models and new releases years in advance. Would be a gamble to continue to design and plan for new ICE cars given they may well not be saleable when they eventually hit the market. They may well continue to manufacture older models however, but the emissions reduction targets could prove to be very difficult and expensive.
Price parity with ICEs is predicted to be 26/27.
We're nearly there now. Mokka e cheaper than petrol mokka I heard on the radio earlier. VW ID2 likely to cost 25k which is the price of the VW polo also
Batteries for EVs are said to plummet in price in the near future but the 1,000 or so components of ICEs will either stay the same or rise in price so the trend will continue if this comes true
Manufacturer's will continue to supply the rest of the world with ice cars if a ban comes into Europe, though they may not need to have euro 6 emission levels outside of Europe, be interesting to see how agriculture and haulage develops in the future
Some US states also have 2035 as the plan but for example the California plan includes PHEVs and Hydrogen cars. Also Canada, China, the UK all have plans for 2035 to be the end of new sales of ICE cars. Some countries are targeting earlier dates, Ethiopia did it this year, Sweden and Netherlands are 2030, Norway and Denmark are 2025
In a way it's the direction the entire planet is going
Exactly and Ireland will have to get with the program or else people will be driving lumps of **** in 15 years time. I don't see it happening, we are just late adopters and in fairness the network of fast chargers is expanding at a rapid rate which will only gain extra momentum as the decade goes on.
Will individual MS be allowed to ban ice sales prior to the 2035 EU ban?
We're close on some models.
But I think price parity for all models will be 26/27.
Batteries are supposed to drop prices 40% in next year or two also.
Who knows what affect self driving will have also.
It seems to be finally here. Lots of testing going on in China also.
I could see it spreading rapidly in a couple of years maybe as it's a trillion dollar industry.
By 2029 ICE sales will have fallen off a cliff and the talk will be about self driving cars destroying the car industry in Europe.
I can't remember where I saw it, but some days ago I did see a headline about the European car industry saying they do not want a delay in the ICE ban. Presumably, as said above, they will have their roadmaps already set and it could be more trouble to rejig everything at this stage.
I don't see why not? If not they could just ban them from an ever increasing number of zero emission zones rendering them pretty useless for most people.
Yes not many cheap and small EVs yet but in the bigger categories they are already around the same price upfront not TCO. This still includes grants etc...
Look at the best selling list of cars, pretty much all of these have an equivalent BEV at the same price level, Tuscon, RAV4 etc...
I agree.
I think what could be a huge new segment in the future is electric campervans with solar and use Starlink for internet.
You could live completely off-grid for basically nothing.
There's a housing crisis in pretty much every country in the western world.
It wouldn't be for everyone but perfect for young professionals or retirees.
The VW ID Buzz is a bit too small and expensive but a bigger camper at a lower price would sell very well.
If you were a young tech worker in Dublin or London it would be better than spending €1000+ a month on rent.
Like live in it full time?
Where would you park it?
A bigger electric campervan with solar would need a mortgage the price of it!
And the regular trips to the sanitation block wheelin your sh1t behind you. No thanks.
Live in it for a couple of years.
Free rent basically.
There's loads of places to park in the suburbs.
Cant park permanently anywhere, you'd be in the move the whole time. Housing estate residents would be up in arms. Shopping centre management will move you on quickly.
Then there's the cost of buying the thing in the first place which could cost as much monthly as renting, with no guarantee that you'll get that money back if you sell.
No room to live in any sort of comfort either. They are for short holiday trips, they're not accommodation.
How much would something like this cost, would there be any change out of 150,000 €, plus charges to park up in a designated area
I see this mentioned quite a bit- how will battery prices drop 40% in the next year or two?
Have massive deposits of lithium been discovered in countries that won’t hike up the price? Will solid state batteries be a thing? What’s bringing the price down 40% when the price of goods generally is trending up?
There is plenty of lithium around. Large deposits in some European countries like Portugal, Germany and Czechia. Portugal is the only country currently producing it. The high cost has nothing to with rarity (it isn't that rare), it's the cost of extracting it.
There are also battery technologies being developed that don't use lithium. Sodium-ion and graphene-aluminium are just two examples currently being developed.
Ok but where are you getting the 40% drop in the cost of batteries from?
It's not really the price of lithium that's affecting the cost of EV batteries, in 2022/23 we saw the price of lithium hydroxide go up by 4x which caused around a 10% increase in battery pack prices. The reason we're seeing drops in battery pack prices is due to innovation by battery manufacturers. The main focus has been on increasing energy density at a pack level, in laymans terms they are able to store more energy in a smaller area using less raw materials. They've been doing this for a long time with the more expensive NMC chemistry but have also been doing the same for LFP, and now the even cheaper sodium ion chemistries.
CATL and BYD are the worlds largest battery manufacturers, Chinese media reported that CATL's basic LFP VDA (rectangular boxes often used by German manufacturers) format dropped from 0.8-0.9 RMB/Wh to 0.4 RMB/Wh. This puts pressure on BYD to also pursue price reductions.
https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-costs-down/
That I'm not sure of, I would think not under single market rules, but they plan to and nobody has told them not to yet
You can buy an electric van and convert it. Opel Vivaro E, Fiat E-Ducato go for about 50-60k, conversions to camper vans are about 10k then
maybe of interest in the 2024 EV sales numbers:
they are down 27% overall, but they are only down 18% in Dublin, where over half the sales happen (EVs are a Dublin thing? 😉), whereas they are down by over 33% across the rest of the country, where you’d assume there’s far fewer home charging issues, but perhaps here’s a public charging network issue.
Or - people outside the commuter counties have seen or heard about EVs and decided it isn’t for them
