Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
Except the bridge in Crimea is much much wider
Im still just perplexed, puzzled and amazed it took this long to enact these, what appear to be, very visible and effective sanctions. This should have happened back in 2022 or 2023?
My 2 cents - i reckon many countries in the world INC US, UK, maybe EU did not want to see an early collapse of Russia Fed economy as they were not yet prepared for the possible blowback. Maybe now they are more insulated/divested and hence pulled the trigger.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/13/investing/us-russia-sanctions-dollar-euro-trading/
@zerosquared Comical Peskov ..
Russia's Central Bank spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the bank can ensure market stability, despite the US sanctions against the Moscow Exchange (MOEX). The MOEX has announced a halt in US dollar and euro trading starting June 13. The bank has stated that foreign exchange business in these currencies will continue on the over-the-counter market. Peskov emphasized that the bank is a mega-regulator and is considering actions that best serve its interests. Moscow is considering response measures accordingly.
https://x.com/Fahadali682521/status/1801220273879802360
so this is the kind of thing we want to see…
That’s a shockingly terrible response by Russian propagandists seems they are in so much panic they haven’t thought through what messages like this would translate to Russian investors (or anyone foolish to have invested in Russia)
“So are they telling us the market should only be half of what it is?”
Imagine if the FED chairman or treasury secretary came out and said “everything is fine half our trade is with Europe, that’s a natural bottom right there to the market”
I fully expect @brickster69 to come along now and try to explain how this is the death of the euro dollar system 😂
And RE CHINA in all this:
Go Yuan: Russian subsidiaries of Chinese banks have now suspended payments in dollars and euros
The subsidiaries of Chinese banks in Russia have suspended foreign trade settlements in dollars and euros due to US sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, Reuters writes.
https://x.com/jason_corcoran/status/1801217200642007286
Hammering more nails into the Russia Fed coffin - UK has joined US with these visibly EFFECTIVE sanctions:
Seems it’s starting to dawn on “some” Russians that being stupid is counterproductive to their aims
Yes, but how long is "Long"? Currently Putin is burning through the national reserves at an incredible rate, and when that fizzles out what happens? Will China, Iran and NK advance unlimited lines of credit to Putin? Thats something that I doubt very much, considering that that "Unlimited Support" does not mean unlimited financial support. Those "3 Friends" are currently taking Putin for every cent they can.
Quite likely and they'll get by. But it's long past time the comfortable Russian middle & professional classes in Moscow and other cities, started to feel the heat big time. They need to understand they are despised pariahs.
Could this been done two years ago, yes
Why wasn’t it done? That’s a good question I hope journalists hound the Biden administration on why it took so long to get here and why more is not being done!
It seems some time in December the Biden administration had enough of all the loopholes and started going after the financial industry directly, that’s about time Chinese, Turkish, Cypriot, UAE etc banks started dropping Russian customers
Now imho all of these sanctions still don’t go far enough as all they do is target individuals and companies (the list is very very long now) instead of a blanket ban on all Russians and everyone even remotely connected to Russia
So there will remain banks in questionable places that still facilitate Russian criminals, but maybe that’s the aim here, funnel the Russians to use a small number of dodgy banks where the CIA can overview all the transactions 😄
As I mentioned earlier - "Putin & Co will no doubt engineer something. Mention they are prepared for this blah blah." - This it?
As to what these new visibly EFFECTIVE sanctions are:
"A new tranche of U.S. sanctions against Russian financial institutions forcibly suspended trading of Dollar & Euro on Moscow Exchange.
Companies, Banks & investors can’t trade Dollar or Euro via a central exchange. These entities will be forced to trade OTC."
And this is an interesting tweet showing the big falls
Would i be right in saying that these new sanctions secondary or whatever seem to be having an IMMEDIATE & visible impact vs all other past sanctions? So is the answer to my Q - Its a timing thing, other sanctions needed to be in place first?
The Russian stock exchange was directly targeted in last round of sanctions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/moscow-exchange-halts-dollar-euro-trading-on-new-us-sanctions
they literally can’t get dollars/euros etc
and more sanctions were announced since as I posted higher up this time going after Russian IT industry directly and Russian banks and their offices outside of Russia
One of the results is that there is no longer an official exchange rate, there will either be what black market says it is (real rate) and what Kremlin will say it is (imaginary rate) which no one will actually be able to avail of
My understanding is that the Russian financial system has been sanctioned as far as possible already.
These are secondary sanctions, tightening on other backdoor methods via third countries
Im not a finance guru at all .. so a Q.
What is it about this new tranche of U.S. sanctions vs previous sanctions in general that has forced Moscow Exchange to suspend trading in dollars, euros & cause possible runs? If this is the reaction in Russia WHY havent these kind of sanctions been used alot sooner? Is it a timing type of thing? Other things needed to be in place for these sanctions to be effective? What type of "deadly" sanctions are these?
EDIT: AHA, found out:
So the Q still needs answering. Why so late with these very effective sanctions? Why not way sooner?
It's never really been about the majority of ordinary, poor Russians. They're outside the elite. Outside the bubble of indulged Russians who buy high-end 'Western' clothes, cars, jewellery, holiday in Italy, France, educate their kids in expensive schools etc. They're reliant on internal media much more so than the upper middle class Muscovites who know what's going on but also know that they're on the pigs back, so why rock the boat. They're exactly the sort of people who need to start feeling the pain of Putin's folly - if they can escape conscription at the expense of the ordinary poor 'Russians', then they can at least start to feel the boot on their neck economically.
The majority of Russians are very poor already, even before the war.
So they see little impact of any of these sanctions and economic woes.
I dunno I kinda feel sorry (not) for all them paid trolls and those Russian soldiers who earned a bit in Ukraine and escaped by getting wounded and then were patting themself on back for earning a couple of roubles planning their retirement in Crimea
Only for said rouble to become increasingly worthless
Anyway - re this Collapse news. Putin & Co will no doubt engineer something. Mention they are prepared for this blah blah. Start the printing presses. Do a comical ally with nothing to see here folks as is the case in general in Russia if something goes wrong. Truth is the first victim
Reports are circulating that Rosbank and Gazprombank’s websites are down and that the Moscow Exchange is preventing people from logging in after yesterday’s announcement of additional sanctions from the U.S. Rosbank is currently offering to buy U.S dollars for 52.8 rubles and sell them for 132.4 rubles, indicating a significant supply issue.
Decline .. a bit more than that?
The allies were still hoping to get Mussolini on their side as late as 1940.
Anyways, more sanctions
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4718008-us-sanctions-russia-war-economy/
yes they did but there’s a point that should not be dismissed
Will Russia lose in a war with west, yes
Will it lead to thousands and millions innocent people to die (and be raped, murdered and all that good stuff Russians do) before the cavalry arrives (assuming it does with Trump, not a given), yes
Putin could be trying to drag China into his world war, he might not be Hitler but Mussolini in this story yet
The Nazis had a degree of tactical nous to start off with, prioritising mobile armour to outmaneuver and overwhelm the enemy.
On the battlefield, the Russians have not shown the same kind of tactical sophistication. Even after you talk about the handful of things they've come up with in two years, they've still very much relied on bloody meat assaults to slowly capture a couple of settlements.
They've shown no ability to rapidly advance in the face of an organised enemy. None. Nada. Zero. They cannot afford to throw men at the meat grinder indefinitely, considering they also need to keep some at home to still run their country. Their only hopes of having a go at NATO in the conventional sense is either with nukes (which will get them killed also) or standing behind waves of Chinese soldiers.
You love to see it.
S500 has been deployed to near Crimea to protect the Kerch Bridge… will be interesting to see how it holds up..
Is this the first proper wartime deployment of it? I know forces have it a while, but not this close to the front line?
https://www.twz.com/news-features/s-500-prometheus-air-defense-system-now-protecting-russias-kerch-bridge-ukraines-spy-boss
Not looking good for the Russian economy
