Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
It's just launchers and radar unfortunately.
However the extra radar and launchers would extend the coverage in an existing system, meaning rather than 2 patriots (or 2 other Sam systems) defending a city, you could have a single system with an extra radar and launchers covering the same area. That leaves a spare system for elsewhere.
I wouldn't see the additional launchers and radar as redundancies.
That's certainly a possibility as well, and anything that gets additional targets locked and additional missiles in the air is to be welcomed, that's for sure.
They really are softening up Crimea for the eventual arrival of F16s
I wouldn't be surprised if there used as an attack against the bridge linking crimea to Russia proper. Try and knock the bridge out at a few sections. Be a big PR win for Ukraine if they did.
Was talking to an old Russian friend over the weekend, first conversation in a very long time, maybe 18 mths or so, and to put it mildly, shocked was not a big enough word to describe how I felt after seeing him. He'd changed completely, face shrunk and desperate looking, like an alcoholic who was suffering delirium tremens with a kind of hunted look about him. Except he doesn't drink. Retired now, and trying to survive on his pension in the face of rising prices., and its a hard battle. He was never a fan of Putin but would cheerfully kill him now if he got the chance. I'm pretty sure that there are many just like him, but powerless to do anything about it. One of his sons is safe in Germany but the other one is in Moscow and living under the cloud of conscription. Putins Russia is a horrendous place, and people say that sanctions etc are not working. Its not true!
I think we should temper our expectations a bit. Those F-16s, once the first squadron comes online, will be playing defense for a good bit, used to seal off Ukrainian air space, at least until more aircraft come online and the Ukrainian F-16 force increases in size. Trying to put together a strike package too early is a recipe for disaster, especially when you're planning to go after a target such as the Kerch bridge. I guarantee you that those S-300s and S-400s that have been suffering from premature detonation recently (don't shame them, happens to everyone) are not the only SAM sites surrounding the bridge and between SEAD aircraft, proper air cover for the strike aircraft and any potential backups, plus likely diversionary raids, that's going to be a lot of jets. According to Wikipedia, Ukraine has a total of 83 F-16s in the pipeline, and I personally wouldn't expect any offensive use of those aircraft until at least half of that force is operational and has had time to gather some experience.
I'm actually more upbeat about the Mirage 2000's strike capability. Those aircraft are designed to work seamlessly with SCALP/Storm Shadow, making those aircraft into a pretty potent deep strike platform. I just hope that France and Ukraine move quickly on getting pilots trained and aircraft handed over.
another 50 billion dollars!
I'd say a priority use will be to tackle those planes launching the glide bombs.
Sanctions don't work,or something…..
Lol.
yes, and also launching their own. Ukraine now have developed their own glide bombs, probably in anticipation of the new plane delivery.
Ukraine have been developing their own as the other glide bombs the US supplied were the ground launch variant launched by HIMARS. However they have been very susceptible to Russian electronic interference, GPS jamming.
Ukraine also use French supplied hammer bombs, which are air launched and have a rocket booster. I don't think they have any issues.
The US have been buying add on seeker heads for the glide bombs which are designed to home in on GPS jamming and destroy them. Meaning the rest of the bombs would get through.
Not just ground launched variant, the US supplied Ukraine a version of JDAM with glide capabilities for their aircraft there last year too.
This is a sobering read.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/victory-in-ukraine-would-dramatically-strengthen-putins-war-machine/ — the Atlantic Council.
Espicially the last paragraph which says that
"Putin has prepared the entire Russian society for war and is openly preparing the entire country for a long struggle against the West. The current invasion is an important part of this fight, but it is only the beginning. Russia's victory in Ukraine will create the basis for even bolder acts of international aggression," the experts conclude."
Can Russia fight endless wars and sacrifice limitless amounts of people despite having only half the population of the EU?
The EU population is a lot more than double that of putin's empire.
alternatively: Putin used to know that the economy was best left to professionals. Indeed, the men and women running the country’s central bank, finance ministry, and ministry of economic development remain highly skilled and saved the country from economic collapse in 2022.
Two years on, they clearly understand the longer-term impossibility of the task they’ve been set. The question is, do they dare tell the boss? And if they do, will he listen?
https://cepa.org/article/russias-economy-closer-to-the-edge-than-it-looks/
Various sources picking up on it
Looks like it's taking a tumble
The population (and industrial capacity) of Allies was a lot more than Germany/Italy/Japan axis
Didn’t stop these countries starting and initially capturing large swathes of land, populations (they used in war) and industrial capacity (German tanks in Chezhoslovakia, oil for Japan in fat east)
And more importantly for us to remember killed millions of people
the exact same stupidity and ideology has infected Putin who has iron grip on Russia and spent three years feeding Russian into a wood chipper and now moved on to importing people from poor places
The History of Second World War podcast is on episode 182 now and only got to invasion of France, the parallels are many 😞 especially the denial and appeasement form western politicians who buried their heads in sand
Not looking good for the Russian economy
S500 has been deployed to near Crimea to protect the Kerch Bridge… will be interesting to see how it holds up..
Is this the first proper wartime deployment of it? I know forces have it a while, but not this close to the front line?
https://www.twz.com/news-features/s-500-prometheus-air-defense-system-now-protecting-russias-kerch-bridge-ukraines-spy-boss
You love to see it.
The Nazis had a degree of tactical nous to start off with, prioritising mobile armour to outmaneuver and overwhelm the enemy.
On the battlefield, the Russians have not shown the same kind of tactical sophistication. Even after you talk about the handful of things they've come up with in two years, they've still very much relied on bloody meat assaults to slowly capture a couple of settlements.
They've shown no ability to rapidly advance in the face of an organised enemy. None. Nada. Zero. They cannot afford to throw men at the meat grinder indefinitely, considering they also need to keep some at home to still run their country. Their only hopes of having a go at NATO in the conventional sense is either with nukes (which will get them killed also) or standing behind waves of Chinese soldiers.
yes they did but there’s a point that should not be dismissed
Will Russia lose in a war with west, yes
Will it lead to thousands and millions innocent people to die (and be raped, murdered and all that good stuff Russians do) before the cavalry arrives (assuming it does with Trump, not a given), yes
Putin could be trying to drag China into his world war, he might not be Hitler but Mussolini in this story yet
Anyways, more sanctions
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4718008-us-sanctions-russia-war-economy/
The allies were still hoping to get Mussolini on their side as late as 1940.
Decline .. a bit more than that?
Reports are circulating that Rosbank and Gazprombank’s websites are down and that the Moscow Exchange is preventing people from logging in after yesterday’s announcement of additional sanctions from the U.S. Rosbank is currently offering to buy U.S dollars for 52.8 rubles and sell them for 132.4 rubles, indicating a significant supply issue.
Anyway - re this Collapse news. Putin & Co will no doubt engineer something. Mention they are prepared for this blah blah. Start the printing presses. Do a comical ally with nothing to see here folks as is the case in general in Russia if something goes wrong. Truth is the first victim
I dunno I kinda feel sorry (not) for all them paid trolls and those Russian soldiers who earned a bit in Ukraine and escaped by getting wounded and then were patting themself on back for earning a couple of roubles planning their retirement in Crimea
Only for said rouble to become increasingly worthless
The majority of Russians are very poor already, even before the war.
So they see little impact of any of these sanctions and economic woes.
