Separate discussion for the EU election results.
Happily you don't get to decide that.
By "become good developer again" i assume you mean just go back to stealing from his employees pensions?
Ming is not an independent. He is a member of GUE/NGL (The Left)
Very good thread (and the politics forum one also). Thanks for all the analysis.
I do quite like how (with one oddball exception) posters generally leave their personal preferences or left/right biases behind and just dispassionately analyze the maths of the situation whilst the count is ongoing. Kinda like a ceasefire.
this ^ & I can't for the life of me understand how anyone could willingly vote for FF… It seems so nuts to me, but plenty of people want what they offer
Who 'lionise's' him and 'ignores' it? There are plenty of politicians with faults who get elected. Reggie has 60K plus votes under her belt and there are several questions over her own failed business...
I am aware of that. However in Ireland he runs as an independent.
I eas talking about Barry.
Yes, if people vote for Mick, they deserve it.
I'd say Lynn Boylon is looking good now, that's a healthy 11K lead over Cuffe in 5th and Aontu are originally a SF splinter, as well as Daly and Smith being left sided and as likely to go to Lynn as much as Cuffe O'Riordain
Looking tight for Niall Boylan alright. Far cry from the other day, hoping he'd get the third seat rather than slugging it out for the last one.
I would say Ming is pretty anti NATO, indeed anti anything defense when it comes to what we might catagorise as Western nations. He was very loud against PESCO when it was a thing.
You could be right. All I meant by 'significant' when posting the above is that anything either of the two Boylans get from those three transfers may not significantly alter their relative position after Considine goes. I did say that expecting Lynn to get 3,500 from Doolan, the extra 4,000 votes could mean she has enough of a gap to stay ahead. Niall has not done as well either from Considine, so they are closer together after count 15 than I thought they would be.
But his influence which is what you were talking about is based on him not being an independent.
So no independents don't have influence. Members of parties like Ming do.
Surprised so much Aontu went to Niall Boylan not Lynn.
Gibeny gone now, so this is the big decider for Cuffe and O'Riordain I'd say
How many of his voters could tell you what European party he belongs to? He has to first get elected, part of that success is running as an independent here in Ireland.
What follows then stems from the quality of the candidate in, yes, selecting their grouping, how intelligent and personable they are to forge working relationships both inside and outside their grouping.
The comments I'm reading are there is no point in electing an independent as an MEP, the statement is not true.
I'm looking at Considine, around 67% of her votes successfully transferred in count 15, but 20% of them then went to Andrews / Doherty. If the same sort of thing were to happen with Gibney, there would be 12,000 transfers, of which 2,400 would go to Andrews / Doherty. Leaving just 9,600 for everyone else. There is not enough in that for Cuffe or AOR to move into a hot seat position, Boylan and Boylan will still be in 3rd and 4th after this.
I mention this as the elimination of Gibney was the point when I expected one of or maybe both Cuffe / AOR to decisively move up. It trully is down to Smith - Daly. Fascinating stuff.
You wouldn't be making snide insinuations of illegality to try and divert from your hero Mick's repeated instances of breaking the law whilst running his businesses?
Intentionally making false VAT declarations; deductions pensions from people's wages and then failing to pay them across to the pension fund. Real hero of the wroking man alright.
Anyone who describes themselves as a socialist should be ashamed to be seen in the same room as him - never mind being attached to the hip with him like Daly is.
It doesn't matter how many people can tell you.
You said independents have influence and used Ming as an example. Even if non of his voters know he is with The Left it has a direct and important impact on his influence.
So he is not an independent and it doesn't matter a damn if his voters know that or not in regards to his influence.
Absolutely - a smart, astute Independent willing to establish relationships within the Parliament can have an impact. Flanagan has shown that, and you'd feel Ciaran Mullooly could too.
The issue is more with the cohort of Independents that just want to go and shout, with no coherent plan and no interest in engaging. Daly and Wallace have shown all they want is their soundbites when handed a mic, you'd feel Niall Boylan would be the same
Aontú voters sending more transfers to both Andrews and to Doherty than they sent to Lynn Boylan is not what I was expecting to see.
Gibney will give both Cuffe and AoR a bump, but expect Smith's transfers to lift Daly above both of them. Then whichever of Cuffe/AoR is behind will be eliminated and will push the other back ahead of Daly. The question will be will it also lift them ahead of one or both of the Boylans.
At that point, Daly's transfers will likely decide who gets the 3rd and 4th seats.
I would be surprised at this stage if Daly doesn't move ahead of Ó Ríordáin from the combined transfers of Gibney and Smith. I think those who are expecting a big SD transfer to Labour are going to be in for a shock. (or maybe I will)
1. You didn't answer my question.
2. I madeno snide accusations.
3. I have no heros and certainly not MW.
4. I made no defence of his business dealings.
I know it might not help your narrative but do try to respond to what I write and not your skewed version of what I write.
Brid smith next after Gibney..a lot to Daly I would guess...
As I said earlier, N. Boylans transfers will come from Daly. Of her 31,000? odd thousand? I would gues N. Boylan will get around 20-25,000. Himself and Daly court the north side extremist vote and are from the same anti establishment/anti west camp.
Can’t describe how happy I am Brid Smith isn’t getting in.
Count 15 didn't take long or did counting not start until 11am this morning?
Finally the phoney war is over and we're on to Gibney's transfers. It's showtime.
Aodhan needs to stay ahead of Cuffe who would likely drag him back past Daly (or vice-versa of course).
I think Gibney will transfer well to Aodhan but in the region of 5/6k. I think it largely depends where Gibenys vote in Dublin is. If its Howth in Cians region (i.e. DBN), I'd expect a big transfer to Aodhan. If its Gary Gannons area (i.e. Dublin Central) then no, I wouldn't expect much for Aodhan from there. If its more south, Cuffe would likely do well.
Fingers crossed for Niall Boylan. Would love to see him get in. Good news Brid Smith is gone 😍
Thats a big call! I think Daly will have more than 31,000 votes at elimination (will get some from Smith and Gibney), but nevertheless I am not sure there will be a total of 31,000 to share (taking account of votes with nowhere else to go), but I guess you are saying something like 70-80% of whatever Daly has to transfer will go to Niall Boylan? I think 25% to Niall Boylan would be big news, bearing in mind a large chunk will also have to go to Lynn Boylan, and some to the other left candidates.
