A picked jury that the Trump team had every chance to challenge….and Biden's a Pennsylvania man.
currently, can’t see him losing!
The thing is though, if people are betting on him then people are voting for him
It’s basic logic
A fool and his money...
Whether she filed a tax return for the money is irrelevant to Trump's guilt. And he certainly didn't tell IRS he gave her the money, that would defeat the purpose of hiding what he did. But, again, not relevant to the crime he was convicted of.
I don't think he could have given her that large a sum of money without either one of them notifying the IRS
Seen that some wit placed the symbol for a registered sex offender over the property online
There would have been no conviction if he hadn't hidden the payments as legal fees. There was nothing illegal in sleeping with stormy Daniels and nothing illegal in paying her to keep quiet.
As its generally understood that bookies don't like losing money, just accept it as a fact of life in their business, will there be a fall-off in bookies accepting bets when Trump looks like being a sure thing in the election or are the bets for him to be a loser?
not completely true, he was convicted of hiding these payments to influence the election of the president.
For conviction, the prosecution needed to establish that there was a reason for the payments, and that the payments took place.
There would have been no conviction if no payments. His mistake is either hiding the payments or doing the dirty deed - perhaps he should have been honest about banging her? That’s not the path he chose. Just like the GOP you are twisting and wiggling here to change the conversation. He should have kept it in his pants if he wanted to be president.
https://www.oddschecker.com/insight/politics/20240531-2024-presidential-election-odds-trump-backed-in-66pp-of-bets-since-conviction
Up take in bets for Trump since yesterday.
I saw a post on social media today - "Who would think American democracy would be saved by a porn star?"
Exactly - He's always been despised in NY.
Depending on who you were , you hated him for different reasons.
If you were a regular person you hated him for his long history as a slum land-lord
If you or your family had any connection to the trades/construction you hated him for being known for stiffing contractors , hired scab labour and doing shady deals with Mafia Front companies for things like Concrete.
If you were a "NY social elite" type you hated him for being the ignorant oaf that he is and for his constant attempts at inserting himself into your social circle and generally just being an embarrassing buffoon.
The rest of the country really only know the "Apprentice" Trump and the MAGA Trump - New Yorkers know who he really is and they hate him for it.
interesting that the GOP yesterday and today is all about distracting from the 12 ordinary Joes finding that Trump did bang Stormy, lied about it and paid her off to keep her quiet. Up to now that story was in doubt.
That isn't what he was convicted of. He was convicted of hiding the payments to Stormy as payments for legal services.
NYC born and raised here. Knew about this grifter since the 1970's. My brother worked on the city desk in NYC for the Post post-Murdoch. Trump would call his lackey Steve Dunleavy to kill stories about him that were due to come out, usually involved bad behaviour at dumps like Studio 54.
Trump was, is, and will be an odious turd. A turdlump can't change its stench. Laughable that the Evangeliban back him up so much. He gave them what they wanted though, first steps to Gilead.
I’d imagine this is more damaging to his Christian conservative base than some election rules and so the GOP want the conversation about something else.
not really. New York hated him before he moved.
Would the fact that Trump basically abandoned and turned his back on New York as a voter base, moving to Florida lock, stock and barrel have any effect on NYC and State residents opinion of him?
When he did move to Mar-A-Lago, the news was about how many of the other Mar-A-Lago residents were opposed to him setting up his residence there as his new home, that they didn't want him there in that guise. Now they have a convicted felon as a neighbour.
I don't think they are ignorant or shameless; that would imply they have not seen what Trump says etc. They are rather self deluded; they are down the rabbit hole that no matter what they are behind Trump in the same way people who've spent hundred of thousands on various mail frauds (Nigerian prince, boyfriend who's rich but only needs to borrow some money for plane tickets who then gets kidnapped etc.) or Brexit sunny honey covered roads and still believe in it. It's not about that what happened does not make sense; it's about refusing to change their world view because by doing so they would have to admit they been lied to and where fooled. it's easier to keep trucking along down the rabbit hole instead than to accept that; which is why they can claim they support the police and flip around and say the riots on 6th Jan were done by Anti FA or ok anyway.
Is it more accurate to say that all elections involving trump did fall within the expected margin of error for the polls. The electoral college can turn tiny margins into an outsized overall win though.
they ain’t shameless, they are ignorant
I tend to agree that he won’t gain new support as a result of this conviction - wonder though what would happen if Trump were jailed? I think it’s very unlikely but if it did happen, I think that’s when he’d receive new support - not because he’s Trump- more because he’s an ex president - I don’t think Americans in general like to see their presidents jailed regardless of rally cries - convictions or fall from grace followed by presidential pardons like Nixon they’ll live with but unless this is a smoking gun plain murder I don’t think they have the appetite for jailing their presidents
There's a flaw in your reasoning. Even if this were true, we don't know that Biden won't be the favourite closer to the day.
Except for every election involving Trump which is the salient point here.
In fact they've been wrong about every election since 2016 - As has the majority of polling as well to be fair.
Yes I think we all know what bookmakers do. The fact is whoever had been made favourite with them wins the election, since 1868 they have been 95 percent correct. Trump is slight favourite at the moment with all bookmakers hence he has a better chance than Biden. Simple
The both sides thing is both tedious and transparent.
bookmakers don’t predict. The are accountants who move odds to make profit. If Trump is favourite it’s because people are betting on him. Simple.
It’s basic actuarial maths.
There's already extensive polling showing that up to 20% of current Trump voters have said they would no longer vote for him if he was convicted of a felony.
The polling says about 5% definitely wouldn't vote for him if convicted and another ~15% would seriously consider not voting for him if convicted.
So if those 5% definites and even if only small % of those that say they'd consider not voting for him decide not to , then he's done.
A swing of 7/8% away from Trump to either Biden or Kennedy is a death knell for his chances
I'd argue that the presence of Kennedy on the ballot will make it more likely that those in the "considering" bucket above choose not to vote for Trump because Kennedy gives them a way to do that without voting for Biden.
There is zero polling indicating that people would change their vote to Trump as a result of him becoming a felon. It will certainly galvanise the supporters he already has and they will probably give him more money to spend on lawyers , but there is no evidence to suggest that it's going to win him "new" support from people that weren't planning to vote for him already.
A lot of past elections were won closer to the polling day- it’s way too early to call it - who knows what sho1te will arise and when but it’s likely to be a dirty battle on both sides
Bookmakers are not clairvoyant. They get things wrong all the time. There's also more than 5 months to go before the election. A lot can happen between now and then.
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