Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
All mod instructions from the previous thread remain in force here
Original thread:
I think China's economy is built on a house of cards. It's property market is fcuked and supply chains n sales seem to be based on us in the West buying them. If there was a genuine effort, they'd be ruined. But you're probably right that money matters more to the big shots than human rights.
Jordan Klepper's full length special,
About time
Lots of talk about this recently
It is very depressing to read that this evening, if true. I was afraid that this was increasingly likely to happen the longer the war dragged on, and the outcome was balanced. Countries with a bone to pick with the US/Western Europe sticking their oar in to try & tilt the war towards their desired outcome + have Putin in their debt was a risk in following a "safer" path of calibrating aid to contain Russia.
Unfortunately I am also fearful that the US threats to China/Xi about consequences of getting involved providing weapons to Russia are hollow (at least this year). Economic "war" with China over military aid to Russia will hurt both sides, and the Biden Admin. won't want it to happen before election in Nov. is over at least.
That works both ways tho’ while Putin might prefer Trump to win, I highly doubt the Chinese would want that particular outcome for a variety of reasons
I think they would prefer Trump to win also. He might have instinctive antipathy towards China, but he is fairly stupid, and his admin. is likely to be unpredictible and very unstable (going on his previous term).
IMO they (a new Trump admin.) are unlikely to manage to plan and execute a foreign policy strategy for dealing with China, going by his previous term.
He is less likely to be able to work with friends in Asia and in Europe to react to moves China makes the way Biden has - he is more likely to just blow up all the US alliances.
Then there is the prospect of domestic chaos. If Trump wins, somehow gets his act together and tries to go after his "enemies" and enact big changes to US democracy on no or a very thin mandate, it is likely to unleash a shítstorm. The US could be curled up in a ball in a corner rocking, and in no fit state to deal with Ukraine, Russia or China or any of it beyond its own troubles.
edit: sorry, that was all a bit off topic!
Unpredictably is precisely one of the reasons Xi might not want him back and why he continues to give Putin platitudes and cold shoulder
Everything in China is about “stability” and “harmony”
Trump is the exact opposite of this
Read that up to 1,000 senior military to be arrested in Russia. Wonder what that is about?
Neither of them will want Trump to win, he will force European States to pay their way defense wise, as difficult as that will be, Biden had to go along with the hard line Trump had with China lest the Democrats lose the rest of the blue collar vote.
No other American President in living memory would have let the West, global stability etc be slapped around so much as Biden has.
Absolute nonsense.
Trump twice tried to hold up aid to Ukraine for malign domestic partisan purposes.
You dont have to slap Trump around he just rolls over for the golden shower.
You have a point, I suppose my thought is Xi/China would prefer some chance of very serious, perhaps irreparable, harm done to the US over certainty of more stability/predictibility with Biden.
I don't think military aid if it happened would be a sign of some deeper friendship/alliance really. Putin/Russia would be made pay very dearly for it.
He's (almost?) just a tool now (he's done that to himself I suppose), and ultimately they'd do it because they would think their "dog" in this fight has a chance at a better outcome if they provide an extra push now + they would calculate the US/Europe are in a weak position and won't dare get into a serious economic war over it at this time.
Personally I think Russia will want Trump and China will want Biden. In Russia they sell Russian Dolls with Trump's face on it for Christ sake beside those with Putin's 😂
As said before,, everyone is a winner bar Russia and Ukraine,,by the end of this china etc can walk in, but even if they don't move an inch trade negotiation etc will take a vastly different perspective, they are left begging for crumbs,Putin has destroyed Russia....it probably does suit the rest of the world to let this war continue unfortunately, they have threatened world peace for long enough,,
I would say that Vladimir Putin regularly w***s himself to sleep in a bath of warm calamine lotion to the thought of the US pulling out of NATO and leaving Europe vulnerable and fractured on its eastern flank. There could be nothing he wants more. He absolutely wants Trump to win.
To test this, which president would be more likely to veto further military aid to Ukraine? Trump already tried to hold up military aid to the country unless they gave him some dirt on Hunter Biden and stymieing aid to Ukraine has been a central policy of the MAGA Republican party. Why wouldn't Putin want more of that? Obviously, he would want more of that. All of that, in fact.
The concept that the US would pull out of NATO because of European countries not paying their way is moronic populism at its finest, completely ignoring the benefits of power projection that heading up NATO has afforded the US for the last 70 years and, as Radek Sikosky pointed out, who stepped to when the US invoked A5? You don't head up something like NATO for that long because of simple charity or an accounting oversight. That's a very consistent foreign policy principle, so there were obviously great benefits in it for the USA. Trump isn't actually worried about the money part. It's that he doesn't want to protect Europe from the encroachment of Russia, because, as it turns out, he quite likes Russia and Putin.
Trump can't just unilaterally withdraw from NATO -there would be lengthy legal challenges
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-congress-has-done-and-what-it-still-needs-to-do-to-protect-nato
Where did you see this? Just curious. Would be some serious cleaning of house!
Now, what our government doing
China has plenty to lose here, as mentioned above they are highly dependent on exports. And their economy is already not in a good place at the moment.
That is why they haven't (officially, at least) provided any military aid to Russia to date.
People have speculated, but the UK minister saying this is now the first time this has been suggested publicly in government circles (i.e. people who are privy to confidential intelligence briefings). Note he said that "lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine"
If this is true and based on solid intelligence then sanctions have to be on the table.
Not aiming to ruin our relationship or the Chinese economy, but as a reminder that warnings from the West to stay out are valid. Sort of like a message saying back off. China needs a strong European economy, so promoting war in Europe is counter productive for them, bringing pain but no real gain.
Reliable source or just some random guy on Twitter looking for a few clicks?
The Russian president is off his tee and one step away from turning Russia into Jokers idea of Gotham city on steroids. What's worse I don't think Batman fancies taking on that problem.
Our government is busy yahooing about a load of flaff trying desperately to have a place on the world stage… on the cheep. Basically the don't want to send money to anyone right now.
One more Russian Su-25 down
Perhaps we can send thoughts and prayers and make “symbolic gestures that offer hope”
I think the current government now deserves criticism for inaction with regards to Ukraine
Yes we offered protection to Ukrainians, but according to a minister of radio the other day the numbers have gone down from 120,000 to 80,000 being in Ireland as it seems some Ukrainians are going back home
Economy is definitely shaky, but they're far more reliant on their domestic market now than exports. There's very little the west can do to shake the Chinese economy, infact id say US and Europe are more at risk to the Chinese.
For all it's bluster, the US and EU countries still do not recognize Taiwan which shows where the power lies.
Very good post could thank it twice if possible.
Mods: Can we make this happen?
You'll read a lot of that in this thread, lads dropping links or anecdotes about events that happened when in reality it's just wishful thinking that doesn't help the Ukrainians one iota.
Seems like this stupid policy of never allowing western weapons land in Russia proper is on the cusp of changing:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/us/politics/white-house-ukraine-weapons-russia.html
Russia must have an enormous amount of logistics and command centres just across the border thinking they were safe. If this stupid policy changes overnight there's gonna be a lot of big booms.
People often think of China as it was 20 years ago, it's GDP is overwhelmingly domestic based and exports are dominated by 5 countries neighbouring it.
It's relationship with the West is still important economically but it is no longer something it couldn't survive a break in.
It might be a rough time for Chinese people, but the Communists are world class at killing Chinese people and controlling them and they have most of the world's food reserves.
That's a story no one ever talks about, wheat. Grain pulses etc levels in storage are now nearly all in Chinese hands.
Gold, commodities etc by accumulated at pace.
China plans for problems in the Future, the West worries about today being nice.
