To be fair, I am literally parroting exactly what you have said. You are speaking out of both sides of your mouth.
Is there a big enough player pool and finances in Ireland to have three teams at the level Leinster are at? Definitely not.
So the choice is to dilute Leinster so that we have four teams at a Scottish club level. Or we continue to let Leinster develop world class talent for Ireland and themselves and hope that the other provences change their structures to be more competitive.
I'm not. You're conflating things.
The significant imbalance I'm talking about begins next season. Leinster have been the most consistent club in Europe for the last 8 years before this scale of an imbalance.
I think this is a fair and reasonable post on the topic.
One point though - a lot of the “structural” advantages people cite about Leinster: the private schools, the population & demographics, the stadiums nearby etc to move games to and grow the gate receipts etc - all of these things have largely always been the case, or certainly have been in place for 50 years or more.
So I don’t think they’re as significant a factor as they’re frequently ascribed to be, because Leinster haven’t historically been so dominant in terms of internationals / CC players.
As exampled here with an impressive efficiency, you just don't deal with a representative sample of Irish rugby fans on this site. It's important to stress this for fans of the other provinces, who may otherwise feel that such uninformed, childish spite reflects a majority opinion. In my experience, it very much does not.
Money is a factor but only because there isn't another league where they can earn similar. IRFU doesn't only have to worry about high paying jobs like the NFL would, but also other leagues.
Agree with your other point. The average length of an NFL player career is 3.3 years, less than the length of their cost controlled contracts coming out of the draft.
Irish rugby doesn't have the playing population to churn through players like that if they aren't immediately showing progress. Having an annual draft means provinces are enticed to go after the shiny new young player each year, knowing that you get another shot the following year no matter how poorly your development program is.
You left out in that analysis that the other provinces are also reaping their underinvestment and stupid decisions over the years when it comes to their academies and player pathways.
If Munster had gotten their act together sooner and for the last 15 years were producing talented young players at the same rate as they are currently then the gap wouldn't be as wide as it is. I'd argue that if they continue at the current pace then the gap should continue to close - a statement many Munster fans would have claimed at the end of last season and I'd say many would have said this time last week.
Well, there's that too, but clearly the money is a huge factor, otherwise you'd have potential draftees opting to get a regular job rather than taking up the contract.
The other thing about a potential draft in Irish rugby is that you'd be sending your hottest prospects to a set up with a less good track record of developing players. They'd end up as less good players. They don't care about that in gridiron because there's no USA national team competing in international competition you want to produce the best players possible for.
I would think Cian Prendergast would be a good candidate. But he's on a team that is underperformed. Casey doesn't deserve it yet. Crowley will get a CC. In Munster, the best prospects at the moment would be Ahern, only if he breaks into the Irish squad. Ulster have none. Maybe McAnn down the road and fingers crossed, Wilson. I'd put money on Wilson to be the starting th for Ireland in a couple of years.
As sydthebeat pointed out, that is a fundamental misunderstanding of the goal of central contracts.
They are there to ensure the best Irish players remain in Ireland and under the control of the IRFU.
In that regard, they have worked fantastically over the years and the only real material miscalculation ironically negatively impacted the baddies in Leinster.
Yes. It would more or less end up the same. I don't have a issue with leinster getting funded more. They are the most successful province and provide the most players to Ireland.
But it helps a situation like Nash, who started the games he was fit for but will never have a central contract. Or the years that jgp was a clear starter but paid by leinster and all the rest periods that went with that.
That isn't at all why the NFL draft works.
NFL draft works because it is a monopoly and players have no choice but to go through the draft or they cannot play the top level of the sport. The terms of a player coming out of the draft now is also worse than it was in years past, where they have no right to negotiate the value of their first contract, which lasts for 4+ years.
If IRFU brought in a draft and a young star Leinster player is 'drafted' to Munster he could just tell them to f**k off and go get paid likely more to play in the Top 14, the Premiership, or even another URC side.
To be honest I think the central contract is no longer needed.Previously the provinces lost their Ireland players for many games but that no longer applies since there aren't games during international windows.
To be honest I think the central contract is no longer needed.
Previously the provinces lost their Ireland players for many games but that no longer applies since there aren't games during international windows.
That was NEVER the purpose of the central contract though, it was more a by product. The main reason was to keep the best players in ireland by paying them centrally beyond the provincial budget so that they weren't attracted abroad.
But players like Hansen is a full time player for ireland for years before he's on a central contract. And connacht will have all the downside of that but no benefit.
The stats dont bear that out though. Hasen played 1100 minutes for connacht last year. 14 games in which he was a starter in every single one. Connacht had 25 games last season, so Hansen started 56% of connachts games.
Take mcclosy for another example. Again, 1120 minutes for ulster. starting 15 out of 15 games. Ulster had 24 games last season, SMCC started 63% of them.
compared that to centrally contracted Hugo Keenan (selected as back who didnt get injured last season) who played 960 minutes for leinster, starting 12 from 12. Leinster had 30 games last season, so Keenan started 40%.
so while the basic of your point is correct (provinces dont get to use test players as much) non centrally contracted players do certainly play more games for theri clubs that CC players, so the extent to "Hansen is a full time player for ireland" doesnt really bear out.
Wouldn’t it end up being the same i.e. Leinster players getting more as a total. And if it's not, who are you going to take money off to pay the other Province's more?
A draft system not being feasible has hardly anything to do with provincial loyalty. It works in American football because the money offered to a player who gets drafted is far too good to turn down. It's millions of dollars for multi-year contracts. Of course anyone's going to jump at that. Talking about a draft when academy players get paid 8000 euros a year (might be an out of date figure) is pie in the sky stuff.
Alooof
You are completely contradicting yourself. On the one hand, Leinster are at an advantage and thus more competitive because there is an imbalance in the number of CC's they have.
On the other hand you are saying that they would still be as competitive with less CC's as they have been for the last ~8 years.
Which is it?
Munster are affected by having Nash and Crowley with Ireland but it isn't recognised with central contracts. Ulster with McCloskey who doesn't start but is with all the squads. Connacht with Hansen. Leinster with Jgp.
The system is outdated and needs to be reviewed. Provinces should reap the rewards either the year their players are selected or the following year. So if Crowley plays 8 games this year then munster get 8times X amount added to their budget the next year to use how they like. Leinster get the same for all their players. They can invest in their academy or add it to wages.
Leinster would still get the most benefit and they should. They provide the most players.
I've a largely stayed out of this conversation because I don't think we're dealing with a representative sample of Irish rugby fans in here. Elsewhere, I don't think I have heard a single fan push back strongly on the idea that the present system is unfair. For example, this was sent to a whatsapp group that I'm in with mostly Leinster and a few Ulster fans. It's from a Leinster fan.
Some thoughts on the central contract question:
The simple, blunt instrument approach would be a draft system like in the US. I don’t think this is a runner because of the loyalty that players and supporters have for their own province. This loyalty has contributed to the success of the provinces over the years.
The present system is unfair because Leinster don’t have to pay most of the first team. Having said that, all the guys who are on central contracts deserve to be, with Mack Hansen and JGP next in line, maybe Jack C in a couple of years time.
A possible solution would be for the IRFU to give an equal grant to each province to pay wages. Ireland players could get an annual top-up from IRFU for being in the squad and bonus for making the 23. Injury shouldn't cause them to lose out. Provinces could be free to raise funds/sponsorship and should get compensation from the IRFU for the unavailability of their front line players.
There are a lot of rugby people in Leinster who are reaping the benefits of their hard work and ambition in the past few decades. Particularly those involved with turning St. Michael's into the production powerhouse they currently are (two lost finals in the LSCs prior to 2000; three titles and four lost finals since).
To admit that the present system is unfair should not mean downplaying this effort or the broader achievements in this area. It's extraordinary.
But with population, logistics and expendable incomes as they are, there simply isn't a way for the other three provinces to close the gap any time soon.
There is a "double yield" enjoyed by Leinster when you then consider these structural advantages combined with inevitable supplementation of its senior wage-bill by central contracts.
Fixing the problem is a lot easier said than done, as that message above sums up.
I'm not saying the change has to be central contracts for the other provinces.
Who should get them? Hansen, Casey, Crowley and Bealham? Two bench players (or maybe not even bench in Casey's case) and an outhalf who's very new on the scene.
Hansen will probably get one next time (but about the same time Aki comes off one).
You're claiming you want a solution that is impossible, which is why I dont believe you're arguing in good faith. Even after that post you are still refusing to provide any specifics - because there is no way you can have it both ways.
Are you ok with current 7:5 split? If not, how low do Leinster go to resolve the huge imbalance for you?
As for the outlook of going 10:3, we aren't even seeing some huge shift in spending due to it - we may never will. Leinster are losing Molony, Jenkins, Ngatai, Alalaatoa (plus other squad players) and so far they are bringing in Snyman and 6 months of Barrett. I'd argue those wouldnt be far off netting from a cost perspective, if not Leinster will be paying less (though it could change with a TH signing).
Given Leinster aren't significantly impacted with the current split (7:5), I don't see any reason why they would be significantly impacted by any change that would act as a counter-weight to the now 10:3 imbalance.
They'd still be as competitive. They've been the most consistent side in the Europe for the last ~8 years, when the imbalance wasn't anywhere near as stark.
As for your continued "Just be honest"... I'm arguing in good faith. How is this anything other than accusing me of otherwise.
If the IRFU was getting more hands on and forcing provinces to let go coaches then we'd have the exact same voices here moaning that they are interfering and those voices would completely lose it if the coach went elsewhere afterwards and was successful.
Of course it will. Lord forbid that the provinces are made up of Leinster players. Is that what they want? Who'd get behind a province that's comprised of Leinster players.
The nominal numbers of central contracts tell us very little during the 00s, when there were so many. If anything it is pretty misleading.
The Irish starting 1-10 would be on considerably more money than the guys who were always bench options and on the cheapest deals.
There is absolutely no chance in hell the Ulster players were getting anywhere close to 21-29% of the overall salary pot during the 00s.
There is a huge difference in not knowing the solution and what you are doing and claiming you want a solution that is impossible to achieve - hence needing a 'magical solution'.
Going back to politics, you're taking the magic money tree approach - where politicians claim to want a solution where there is a huge increase in government expenditure without anybody having to pay extra for it in taxes.
Just be honest and accept that calling for a solution that closes a huge inequality gap for 3 provinces will significantly negatively impact Leinster.
This is, imo, the single biggest contributor to the disparity that can and should be addressed by the IRFU. Number of CCs at a province is an output metric. I don't buy the idea that the current CC numbers will solidify the disparity going forward...if that happens, it's because the player development improvements don't materialize in Munster and Ulster. The IRFU should fund those improvements and supplement budgets if necessary, but it needs to be for ringfenced spending to achieve that goal - if Leinster's academy works so well, the IRFU should be looking to standardize practices and make sure the academies and coaching staffs eleswhere are up to par.
Pointing at the CC system and saying it's going to make things worse assumes that the real problems aren't going to get solved locally. The system isn't the problem, tinkering with it is going to make f*ck all difference imo.
Just look at the difference to Haley since he stared to play under Prendergast.
The biggest issue with Carbery was his injury profile, imo. His first 6 months at Munster went well, after which he was essentially injured for 2 full years.
Since then, at the same time Munster have managed to develop Crowley and Healy (and Jake Flannery at Ulster too fwiw).
Fwiw, I think working with Mike Prendergast could be a huge incentive to any provincial player in consideration of a move. I rate him very highly.
Not enough is made of the disparity in coaching when it comes to player movement between Provinces. Young prospects Ieinster would have had legitimate concerns at the quality of coaching available elsewhere. The IRFU have been derelict for too long in allowing such a large gap persist. Watching Munster over the years was an exercise in suffering, so poor was their attacking structure and basic skills. They've improved massively lately, which is brilliant but I think it played a large part in Carbery's failure for example .
Indeed. But the fact remains that they're products of Leinster's underage system. Very good pick ups, imo.
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