Wouldn't that depend on the source of said obituaries?
But yes, supporting evidence if valid.
For some time I have been hoping for Crimea to be taken back and the Kerch Bridge to be sent to its final resting place as a diving attraction on the floor of the Black Sea.
The 2025 Biden administration and its allies then hold a very large conference in the city of Yalta where the future of a dismantled and administered Russia is agreed upon; extensive lists of global arrest warrants for war crimes and crimes against humanity issued, destruction of all military installations, confiscation of all nuclear raw materials, closure of all Russian "embassies". That would be a nice start.
It continues with Medvedev and Lavrov and dear Vladimir Vladimirovich himself bellowing and snorting with impotent fury while threatening the world with their hollow, rusty tubes.
Back to reality, it is very much time for the free world to get its act together and crush the Vatnik for once and for all.
I saw a tweet 2 weeks ago that Russians managed to get the air superiority in some parts of eastern Ukraine. And then boom, su34s and su35s started dropping like flies. But out of 9-10 planes there's only like 3 video evidences or confirmations fighterbomber, which is/was reliable Russian source. Wouldn't be surprised if there's a little bit of propaganda from UA side
Spent the weekend in Budapest and despite all the government propaganda posters claiming 99% of Hungarians oppose the EU (on the grounds of Migration, "Gender Propoganda" etc.) there's definitely a feeling in the air that their own Maidan moment might not be that far off. There was a fairly large scale protest against Orban's regime on Saturday and the locals I spoke to utterly despise him and the scale of corruption there would give Bertie Ahern an erection.
What I hadn't realised was that Hungarian citizens who don't live in Hungary were given an electoral mandate by Orban's party since the 2014 elections and that more than 90% of this voting block, who are predominantly made up of the country's diaspora in neighbouring countries like Romania, Slovakia etc, vote for Orban's Fidesz–KDNP party.
Now, all that said, I know Budapest (and the better educated urban areas in general) wouldn't be the areas where the Fidesz party gather their support from but with his power base is so heavily reliant on people that don't even live within the country's borders, it would seem to me that Orban's grip on power in Hungary is nowhere near as strong as the election results would suggest.
Incidentally, we happened to be staying quite near the Russian embassy and this memorial for Navalny at the entrance to the Metro station directly in front of the embassy was growing by the day as we were there. Every time we passed by someone seemed to be adding some flowers or lighting candles.
I'm just surprised by Macron, his words have come depressingly close to appeasement at times, this is unusually tough talk from him. I wonder what prompted it
Jesus, can you imagine if the GOP Irish diaspora in the States had votes here...
We'd have been ruled by Sinn Fein since the mid eighties if not before!
oh to be a fly on the wall in the russian operations room
Seems like an outdated concept to have such a high price asset if its that vulnerable , better to develop a sophisticated drone for 1/10th the price
I would say there are many such assets in big militaries. Aircraft carriers for one. Even main battle tanks are vulnerable now.
I see it as a positive in general, attacking a country (for good or bad reasons) is getting more expensive and the advantage is falling to the defender , there ought to be less war if it gets nose-bleedingly expensive and disadvantageous.
With EU collective defence being so nascent, it would (IMO) be more likely to be some kind of cooperative mission under aegis of NATO between countries that are willing.
Indeed, you'd just hope that whatever kind of coalition is formed, it'd have the legal mechanisms to react to provocation, or indeed outright attack. And numbers wise, it'd have to be something quantitative too: a few token troops hanging around the Kyiv suburbs sampling the pastries would add nothing - it'd have to have some kind of pragmatic threat to Russian forces by sheer dint of technology or volume of troops.
I'd be shocked if this all comes to fruition, though Macron's sudden change of language is in of itself quite seismic; he was happy enough to pull a Chamberlain for the longest time so you'd have to wonder what changed - and was it some information passed to him we're not privy to? To hint that the West might want/need to put soldiers into Ukraine - even if merely as a 300lb gorilla or missile shield - is quite something.
Let's see where this goes - cos you can be damn sure Zelensky reached for the hotline when that comment passed his desk, the obviously first question being How Serious Are you Emmanuel?
Disappointing to see other euro nations rushing to put the dampeners on the macron comment/suggestion. Germany, Spain etc.
Personally I believe its the only way to end this war with Ukraine keeping it's original borders intact. At the moment it feels like Putin is getting more and more confident. Are we all going to wait till Russian boots are at the outskirts of Kiev before we realise we've messed up?
What has changed?! Is that a real question?
What has changed is that the US has effectively left NATO. Why are people struggling to understand this?
Russian has it pretty rough in Ukraine but frankly it's embarrassing they're being given a lifeline by the West. They should have been run out of there by now.
Uh, no they haven't. What are you talking about? America remains a full member until January 2025 at least, then we'll see what Trump does if he wins.
America mightn't be a useful guarantor at this minute, but it's still a large number of steps to walk before you speak publicly to putting troops in Ukraine.
An air defense mission alone would be massively helpful. Provide coverage in the interior to allow Ukraine to push its organic assets closer to the front, to where they could penetrate into Russian territory. Deny the Black Sea airspace for the Russians. Not explicitly confrontational but enough to tip the balance. The Euro countries would have to be prepared to engage any air defense assets that might try to engage them though.
Deny the Black Sea airspace for the Russians. Not explicitly confrontational but enough to tip the balance. The Euro countries would have to be prepared to engage any air defense assets that might try to engage them though.
Therein lies the tricky needle with respect to a legal mandate: 'cos this idea only works if Russia thinks this EU Army force would attack if provoked enough; somebody has to blink and I daresay a Russian pilot would be more likely to press on than (say) a French pilot would be to retaliate. Especially if rules of engagement aren't adequately clarified for this theoretical Western force.
Yes, it would of course need to have a bit of weight to mean anything. It doesn't necessarily have to threaten Russia but the countries involved would want to accept they are going to have to make a serious response if (say) Russia is advancing in East of Ukraine and Putin decides to test their will to protect [rest of Ukraine] by directly attacking any troops they have sent into still unoccupied parts of the country. Will be very scary times anyway if it happened.
I am not sure if there's additional information (other than what we can all see/what is being reported on - Ukraine is being starved of resources and suffering from it). Also not sure if it is that sudden a change. Macron has always struck me as a pretty cold and rational creature and I think for a good while he's accepted that Putin/Russia are not backing away from this any time soon, despite the horrific cost. The days of the phone calls to Putin are long gone.
So either they will have some kind of "win" over Ukraine by Putin's own lights (even if it looks insane to us at the price/cost), they will be fought to a standstill and finally just run out of energy and will to continue the war (a N/S Korea type situation?) or they will be beaten backwards by military force. The latter 2 outcomes will not happen without large amounts of Western support to Ukraine continuing + increasing. The idea of peace deals and negotiations seems like a pipedream for now, and he realises that IMO.
Any EU force would have to be explicit about their willingness to engage threats against them and also to put their soldiers in danger. The public has to be understanding that people might die, and that opposing Russian aggression is worth the potential risk.
Did you miss the word effectively? Having an alliance with an ally that is no longer reliable isn't worth a damn. Europe needs to see that. Poland sees it, hence why it is arming itself to the teeth. Other European countries are starting to wake up to that reality but at its usually snails pace.
As it stands America is a NATO ally and if Russia invaded or attacked a NATO country, Article 5 comes into effect. That's not a question of reliability or discussion - but a legal treaty. Everything else is conjecture and (understandable) anxiety about Trump, but he didn't come down with the last shower either - his presence has been around since the war started and we knew then he was running in 2024.
Given at least an outside possibility that Trump could come back, why would Europe trust the USA implicitly at this juncture??
It's wise to allow for the fact that a Trump presidency would either just thumb it's nose at NATO commitments in Europe and / or just leave the pact.
We've a lot more to lose and very foolish to rely heavily on the kindness of the USA.
Especially since it was reported today that Trump seems to have made gains in swing states over Biden. Great encouragement for Putin..the EU needs to be prepared to go it alone against Russia.
Unfortunately 2% should be the base level.
The German army is so run down and poorly equipped today that it effectively has no functional army.
Source? Cos the Primary Polling is telling a different story: Trump isn't appealing to the swing, independent or wandering voters whatsoever & I think the napkin math shows that the Haley voters going "no thanks" translate to about 25% of the overall GOP vote.
As to national polls, it's beginning to tighten up and perhaps reflective of that bleed of soft-Republican voters; TBH the more things like Trump's brainfarts occur, or Alabama's IVF decision colours the mood, then the more it plays into the anxiety of liberals to get out and vote, or repulse independent voters enough to hold their nose for Biden.
America is NATO, there are alot of accompanying plates in that meal but it is America.
Every US President for the last 20 years should have been repeatedly calling out the diabolical State of European armies and the absolute refusal to take their own defense seriously or pay for it.
One good thing from Trump refusing to pay Europes tab is that it will force some in Western Europe to take their own security and well being seriously, not all, some. For some there is an ideological opposition to do so.
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