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10 years down the line, problem with ESB infrastructure at home??

davidivad

In 10 years time, 2034, every typical family has 2 electric vehicles, both with 100 kw batteries. Both parents want to charge the car at night, both chargers working together only produce 3.5kw/hour to the car. After 10 hours both cars are topped up by 35kw.

Is there not going to be an issue here, will ESB not need to increase lots of houses to 3 phase or am I missing something, car batteries will be smaller then etc?

No night rate rate will cover 10 hours so projected savings in comparison to diesel will be a moot point?

What am I missing here?

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TheChizler

Every family won't be using the full range of both cars every day, on average probably only a small fraction.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058334038/10-years-down-the-line-problem-with-esb-infrastructure-at-home

Your missing solar panels and batteries and smart load management and wfh and some cars being there all day and cars not always needing to be charged at the same time. Alternate days lots of range.

You're missing alot tbh.

davidivad

Thanks lads, you are both correct of course, but seeing as ICE cars are going to be phased our supposedly, is the future of driving in a family, a case of planning routes beforehand, planning charging afterwards and always having a big electricity usage every year, which will be expensive.

I'm not saying there is anything wrong with this but is the convenience of driving your car wherever you want, whenever you want, on the way out?

SuperBowserWorld

Every typical family will have a house and 2 cars.

Sounds great.

Where do I sign up ?

Wanderer78

...most households wont have 2 ev's, ice cars will still be around, and will still be sold, only certain proportions of society can currently afford to buy a single ev, this looks set to continue for some time, particularly since the fact, property prices dont seem to be settling, this will all impact the viability of households to simply own 2 ev's......

magicbastarder

IIRC, currently the average car in ireland averages ~40km per day; that'll help calculate the average load on the charging network.

davidivad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121699853#Comment_121699853

That would all appear to be correct. When is the scheduled phase out of ICE cars? 2035? Hard to know it that'll be the case.

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058334038/10-years-down-the-line-problem-with-esb-infrastructure-at-home

People won’t be charging 100kwh batteries from empty to full. We have capacity for 600,000 cars with out changing our supply 600,000 just brings out night load in line with our day load.

( based on 300,000 charging @7kw for 4 hours, and another 300,000 for another 4 hours)

19bn is being spent developing the grid.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121699836#Comment_121699836

No it's not, not at all. This is wall to wall Facebook stuff. With little grasp of any of the technologies involved.

Meanwhile you'll be living in an barely insulated house with open vents burning fossil fuels to keep warm at huge cost running a car that needs excess servicing.

Other people with foresight are making their homes future proof in increments and living nice and comfortable at a lower overall cost.

Live in the past or embrace the future up to you.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121699877#Comment_121699877

35 does seem to be the much muted figure, but very few, if anyone has actually agreed to it yet, im not aware of it anyway, theres clearly a gigantic squeeze happening now, to try phase out ice, but ev's may not be the ultimate answer, its good to see some are not giving up on hydrogen, as we re gonna need everything to try get out of fossil fuels....

...the disturbing fact of all of this is, governments dont seem to be able to understand their ev plan simply wont work as is, as we re clearly hitting some major obstacles in regards the ultimate cost of living and borrowing households can maintain, in order to move to a complete ev model, significant amount of private debt/borrowing is required, but a significant proportion of the population is now simply over indebted as is, the majority of which is based in them trying to meet their property needs, so borrowing even more for a relatively new ev simply isnt viable for many, probably most, and then of course theres all the other ev obstacles to overcome, i.e. long charge times, battery deg etc etc, many are simply just defaulting to ice, as these obstacles are simply too much to take on....

clearly our property model is deeply flawed, and will collapse, again, its already in a deeply dysfunctional state, this all plays into the ev plan, helping it to fail to....

..another major failure in this plan is towards public transport, in particular rail, in order for us to truly move over to an ev model, countries will also need advanced rail networks, we clearly dont have this, and by the looks of it, we may never have, again, this is a failure at government level, so....

ELM327

We have a 60kWh, 40kWh and heavily degraded 24kWh EV at home, and I plan to buy a fourth soon. We do a combined 60k km a year across all cars.

We don't charge every car every day, if we can manage 60k a year and 3 EVs, I suspect there won't be a problem for some time. The extra demand will mostly be at night, where we currently switch off/down generation or sell off electricity to wholesalers for cheap/free/negative pricing. If you assume night is 30% of day usage (figure pulled out of the air, but let's assume it's accurate, not really important), then you have 70 percentage points of electricity that can be used at night without issue.

witchgirl26

The thing is very few households would need to charge both to full every night. We have 2 ev's in our house. Both used every day. I charge up when mine gets to about 20% but usually the other one doesn't need to charge that night so is grand. In fact we don't have a car charging every night at all during the week. Usually 2 nights or maybe 3 if there's bigger journeys happening.

You're also not factoring in if people have access to chargers at work and if these are being used.

Old diesel

I don't know what knowledge the OP has about EVs.....

So some general points

1) its already possible to recharge an EV to 80 percent in 20 to 30 mins at a HPC*.

2) a 100 kwh battery will probably give 300 miles range if efficency is decent.

3) electricity bill might be higher overall but you'd have NO petrol or diesel costs.....

4) EV tech is constantly evolving so the 2034 EV will have improved batteries vs what's there now. More range for those who need it. Faster charging etc.

5) I mentioned 20 to 30 mins to 80 percent in my point 1). VW group are suggesting that their next generation EVs will be 12 mins to 80 percent. The Chinese are also now able to do battery swops in 5 mins but the view of many EV people is that charging technology is going to be sufficiently good enough to make battery swop unnecessary.

6) a test was done with a Porsche EV in America. The car was plugged in at 10 percent at HPC* and charged for 15 mins.

After 15 minutes it was plugged out and taken out on a motorway type road to see how many miles it would do until it got back down to 10 percent again.

It did 140 miles at around 75 mph speed.

Meaning the car added 140 miles of range in 15 minutes.

7) in Norway Bjorn Neyland an EV youtuber has already shown that 1000 kms in 10 hours or less. Is already possible. That 10 hours includes ALL charging en route (car fully charged at start of the 1000 kms).

for context 1000 kms in exactly 10 hours is exactly 62.5 mph average speed for every one of those 10 hours meaning the impact of charging on a long trip isn't going to be as high as people think.

So the answer to the question of

"Are the days of being able to sit into your car and go where you want when you want - over"

The answer in my opinion is NO - if the infrastructure is built to a good standard.

*high powered chargers often capable of 200 to 350 kW charging power (actual charging speed will depend on the EV)

Edit - yes regular posters will know the points I've made already.

However my answer is aimed at the OP who isn't up to speed with EVs

XsApollo

Won’t need to worry about this when hydrogen powered cars take over, we already have the infrastructure in place, in regards to fuel stations, a few upgrades might suffice there, and the whole way the world goes about filling up their car already will still be the same.

electric isn’t the future , it’s part of the future for sure, but not it.

MojoMaker

Home electricity rate would need to be slightly over 1 euro per kwh for me to reach a level playing field with the diesel costs I left behind - and that's only on a purely fuel-based argument, not factoring in all the other costs with diesel motoring I no longer have, and don't miss.

Charge 2 EVs at the moment, have not needed to charge both the same night in a year. Either car charging works out at about 3-4 nights per week, which means 3-4 nights per week nothing being charged.

Approx. 25k kms annual distance on one, and maybe 10K kms on the other. Probably light users, but even so.

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121700788#Comment_121700788

Hydrogen does not make sense for cars. There’s use losses converting hydrogen to electricity

where do you think hydrogen will come from? That’s right we use electricity, so if we use hydrogen we’ll need more electricity

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121700788#Comment_121700788

bahaah

Hydrogen is not a green fuel and it has only slightly better efficiency, well to wheel, than ICE. Typical H2 cars like the Mirai get 50-70MPGe, which is awful.

...Ghost...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121700788#Comment_121700788

Ask Shell why they are closing all their Hydrogen stations.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/exclusive-shell-has-quietly-closed-down-all-its-hydrogen-filling-stations-in-the-uk/2-1-1335049

RainInSummer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121700788#Comment_121700788

How are they getting around the steel embrittlement issue with existing infrastructure?

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121700881#Comment_121700881

Tbf all things considered hydrogen make sense as an energy store for areas that may produce excess energy that's not readily transferable. E.g high wind areas west and north west or tidal. They are already doing similar use cases in the Orkneys.

energy storage in renewable space is multi faceted and battery's cannot make up the single answer. Turlough hill type schemes, hydrogen conversion, mine shafts. Many options locally suited to generation and environment conditions. The future is multi layered.

kanuseeme

I remember only in the last year or 2, it was suggested to start up generators at the server centers to reduce grid load,

I don't know what the tipping point is, how many electric cars can the grid handle? what is peak charging time for fast chargers, does it coincide with peak usage?

150 kw + chargers, how many are in the country?

Gumbo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121699836#Comment_121699836

Bigger electric useage but no petrol or diesel useage. Cancel each other out.

Del2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121699972#Comment_121699972

Our love of one of houses leading to ribbon development means that rail is will never work here. Rail needs high densities to work of which we have very few

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121701758#Comment_121701758

They are already talking about road user charges to replace the revenue lost from ICE taxes. Once they start talking it's only a matter of time to implementation.

MrMusician18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121700788#Comment_121700788

The main problem with hydrogen is the storage of it in the vehicle. The most recent mirai from Toyota has a 400mi range, which is comparable to a Model S long range. So the range is ok, equivalent to the best of the EVs.

The drawback though is that it only has 400mi of range and can only be charged at a station, while an EV can be charged at home. It is only home charging that makes limited range tolerable. Unless Toyota can start to pack ICE-like ranges into their hydrogen cars, they will remain the EVs poor relation.

liamog

Mod Note: There's a thread for taxation of alternative fuelled vehicles https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058278820/taxation-of-alternative-fuelled-vehicles posts moved

NIMAN

Don't forget a recent study found the average commute in Ireland was something between 20 and 30km.

No need to be charging every night. Even in 2024 with 58kwh or 77kwh, you don't need to he charging every night.

kaahooters

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058334038/10-years-down-the-line-problem-with-esb-infrastructure-at-home

your missing too much to make a post on it, but, oil and refiled fuel is going to hit €3 a liter if not more in the next 10 years.

kaahooters

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121700788#Comment_121700788

hydrogens not going to be a thing, no matter how much you think it is.

its too inefficent, too expensive, and its already failed everywhere its been trialed.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121703942#Comment_121703942

Remember the non taxed price is still around 70-80c per litre for petrol and about 80-85c for diesel, in Ireland. So, do you reckon that the base price of fuel is going to double in the next 10 years? I don't think it will. 2€ yes for sure, it's at 1.70 already but 3€ is a big stretch. There would be reduction of taxation before that happened.

zg3409

The continuous supply rating for most houses is 50 amps, so with 2 chargers each car can draw 25 amps constantly, say 5kW giving about 100km range every 4 hours to both cars. Now if you do add in dishwasher, washing machine, hot water for showers and try to shorten all that into a 2 hour window for lowest price you may have an issue. Even then most commutes would be covered. Those with a big night draw will probably pick plans that give 4 or 6 hour windows of low pricing time. I know I consume more total power at night than all day consumed.

I think the ESB infrastructure will cope. Indeed many new houses have heat pumps and some demand a bigger than normal supply as a result.

Long term we may move like the UK with electricity prices changing every 3 minutes and smart car chargers turning on and off to maximise the cheap minutes and get max power from wind, or when there is excess nuclear from UK at night. I only need to half fill my EV once a week so not a massive impact.