How do people feel about this one? Will it be short and sweet?
Mod warning:
https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121425200/#Comment_121425200
Its more a case of someone not being able to admit when they've made a mistake.
For the avoidance of doubt, there are 388k public servants at end Q2 2023.
Source DPER Databank.
Commercial semi state bodies (ESB etc) are not included in this figure as they raise their own revenue rather rely on the Exchequer.
The comparable figure for 2008 is 291k.
If you start citing old CSO releases you don't understand and try to compare apples and oranges then you are going to be corrected.
So with the cost of living finally coming down (electricity, groceries) will we be prepared to take 8.5%?
Very hard to use the cost of living as an excuse when its reducing.
I don't think that would placate public sector workers. Cost of living isn't reducing (that would be deflation), the rate of increase is slowing down.
My esb bill costs are starting to sharply come down. To me thats a decrease.
Do you know how inflation is calculated?
Groceries are still shooting up. Electricity costs remain much higher than they were even 12 months ago - note the utilities are being somewhat disingenuous in their price reduction announcements - while the standard rates have dropped x%, the discounts available off that rate remain far lower than before (i.e. 2 years ago most were advertising 30+% discounts off standard rates; ~15% is as good as it gets now).
And? That doesn't tell the half the story. According to data, primary and secondary school staff have gone from 41,033 and 33,074 to 56,990 and 39,143 respectively. Pretty substantial increases of 38% and 18%, given the population rose approximately 16% in that period.
If you were to read that you wouldn't think that there was an issue in education, however there is, a rather large one.
The junior cert results weren't released until the 18th of October 2023 because, in the State Examinations Commission own words, there was a "very significant examiner shortage". And this is despite pay being increased for examiners earlier in March 2023.
According to a survey of 1094 primary and special schools in October 2023 there was a shortfall of 809 posts, 72% of the schools that responded had been unable to fill all their vacancies, 1,202 additional long-term vacancies were anticipated in the following three months.
Also, the recent staffing numbers are inflated because there are more teachers than ever before on career leave. In early 2023, Department of Education figures showed that teachers on career leave had more than doubled over the last 10 years, with 1,535 teachers on a break in 2012/13 compared to 3,153 in 2022/23. There are also far more substitute teachers being used than ever before, with schools/department being forced to hire non qualified teachers too.
I could do this for nearly every sector:
Garda numbers have fallen since by 1,476 since 2008, a reduction garda numbers by 9.5%. This is offset somewhat by an increase in Garda civil service staff of 1,279. But there has been a net decrease in staff despite a rise in population. It's no wonder they're increasing the recruitment age to 50.
Do I need to say much about the Defence Forces? Numbers have dropped by 2,960 or 26% since 2008. They can only use two of their eight vessels due to manpower shortages.
Revenue staff numbers have fallen since 2008 levels, there's been a huge amount of retirements that aren't being replaced. Once again, this is despite Revenue's case base increasing massively with record receipts across all tax heads.
I'm citing "old" releases because you made a reference to boom time figures in the public service and the boom ended in 2007.
Figures from the DPER state the following:
325,177 worked in the civil service, defence sector, eduction sector, health sector, justice sector, local authorities & NCSA in 2008.
377,310 worked in the same sectors in 2022.
An increase of 16%. . . . Still considerably less than the overall population increase during the same period of 21%.
https://databank.per.gov.ie/Public_Service_Numbers.aspx
You do realise that there are many many strands of the public sector that raise their own revenue rather than relying on the Exchequer?
They are still higher than they were. FFS some comments around inflation can't be serious
It's almost, and stick with me here, the PS was understaffed then and is understaffed now
If the increase had been 8.5% from 1st January 2024, I might have accepted it. I would have at least considered it.
But the fact that it will take 2.5 years from now to reach that level of an increase, and still in affect leaves us running two years behind inflation, I am not willing to accept that.
I have seen one price decrease by my ESB/GAS provider so far, from November 1st 2023, so I haven't seen any massively reduced bills yet. Due soon, so we'll see. Even so, they are still much higher than 2 years ago.
I have seen no reduction in the price of my shopping trolley, in fact, it's still continuing to increase. For my family my grocery bills have increased by at least 40%-50% in the last two years.
No mortgage interest rate cuts yet either.
Serious lack of understanding of inflation amongst some people on here, embarrassing. Reduced levels of inflation still means the price of things are increasing, just at a slower rate. And since the last pay increases didn't come close to the rate of inflation, it means we're behind where we should be in order to keep pace with that inflation. Some people just never bother actually thinking about these things it seems.
My brother works in retail management. He got a 3% increase backdated to the 01/01/24 and 2% bonus. Same agreed for 2025. 1.75% of an increase for 2024 ain't cutting it for me.
Inflation up to 4.6% in December from 3.9% in November. That's a sizeable jump. The Government's failure to close a deal quickly could end up backfiring yet. Inflation is expected to rise as a result of the chaos unfolding in the Red Sea and wider Middle East. The 'inflation is falling' line will not hold up.
Inflation rate moves up to 4.6% in December - CSO (rte.ie)
Don't shoot the messenger here, happy to provide background workings to this and stand corrected if any of my figures are incorrect:
I have went back over the past three paydeals & tried to work out an effective increase per year (taking into account the number of months each increase was offered etc. And above are the results as well as the CPI Inflation figures.
It basically really shows the importance of when in a year that an increase is given. If it is given in October, it has very little impact on the pay increase in that year. This one been offered is very weighted towards the end of the deal.
First Agreement:
Second Agreement:
Projected Offer:
If we break all of these down to years:
2021
2022
2023 (First Agreement)
2024
2025
2026
The percentage increases considering time apportionment are:
So you happy to take a pay decrease as a result?
All this talk of so-called pay rises yet no one ever mentions that the Pension Related Deduction (introduced by Brian Lenihan in 2010 and called a "direct pay cut" by Lenihan at the time) still remains intact to this day.
Funnily enough, older readers will remember when ISME was the SFA - Small Firms Association.
I'm not sure it's in the interests of ISME members, employees of ISME members or customers of ISME members to be constantly struggling with crap public services. Money that would otherwise be discretionary spending available to be spent with ISME businesses will instead be grabbed for use on education, healthcare, childcare and other essentials.
A far cry from the increments + pay increases state employees will be getting. Also not matching the rate of inflation.
I assume you'll be referring to the pay increases in 2025 accordingly, by carrying over the 1.75% you're excluding for 2024 and adding to the scheduled increases already proposed for 2025? What is the annualised increase for 2025 then? Much better than the proposed rates suggest .
A bit rich coming from someone too miserly to be spending on lunches in ISME outlets to be worried about the well being of those outlets.
Increments are not a substitute for inflation matching increases.
What about those who are just starting at a grade? Are they just expected to suffer?
And those progressing along the increments are just accepting the same real pay year to year because of inflation? What a fool.
So based on the comparison made to retail management who are not on an increment scale, the offer to state employees is extremely generous indeed.
The retail manager does not get a guaranteed increment, gets an increase less than the Government offer and gets an increase not matching inflation either.
He is actually on an increment scale. I previously worked with this retailer. It takes 4 to 5 years to get to the top point of salary in his position.
You never accept the point about increments. People take the job based off these increments. Without the increments there would be nobody hired. Literally you would have zero Gardai and zero nurses , doctors. Absolutely everyone. The increment scheme saves the government billions.
And the spin marchents on here take any growth in private pay, where very often increments are not a thing, and want to apply the same growth to public pay on top of increments.
As I stated above. I've worked in this retailer, and it takes 4 or 5 years to get to the top of salary for his position. He is on an increment scale. I also stated that the pay increase this company has agreed is
3% pay increase with 2% cash bonus for 2024 and same for 2025. Fair play, I say he deserves it.
The pay agreement offered to public sector workers falls far below this. I just think, in my opinion, more of a percentage should be frontloaded to today. You obviously disagree. We point have opinions on the matter.
The offer from the Government should be more front loaded but this "terrible" offer is still better than the comparison you are making when the duration of the deal ends.
So you drop an increment turd, get told that the retail manager IS ON an increment, ignore that, and blather on about increments being a PS bad?
Maybe if they offered something a bit healthier than a chicken fillet white roll, I might be more inclined to buy lunch more often.
More importantly perhaps, the entire economy for ISME members does not depend on my personal lunch choices, so there's that.
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