How do people feel about this one? Will it be short and sweet?
Mod warning:
https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121425200/#Comment_121425200
When prices start to fall and interest rates decrease,which they will, would you accept salaries being reduced inline with this? Its the same question as yours.
Looks like the "silly figure" inflation beating wished for increases are being beaten down to what I envisaged from way back.Are we talking about 5-7% now over 18-24 months.Of course that figure will look mighty when the inflation rate this time next year will be down around 3%! Not suitable but sustainable compared to the silly expected /wished for figures.
The Unions need to have a long hard talk about housing for the new young workers/graduates during their discussions.I'm talking here about the ,to borrow a phrase!,the people that get up early in the morning and go to work...other countries do this,provide housing for their workers.Unfortunately good old Ireland ,when providing housing,do it for the serial non workers who do not add anything to the economy other than their costs!
Prices won’t fall. You are crazy if you think they will. Every government in the world will do everything they can to stop deflation. How many times in the last 50 years has there been deflation???
You still have not answered the question, do you honestly not know the difference between nominal wage growth and real wage growth?
To answer your question, would I accept wage cuts if deflation occurs? I’d hardly vote for it. However, it wouldn’t be my choice, the government would simply cut our wages. As they did last time there was deflation because the economy would be in ribbons.
im glad you’ve nailed your colours to the mast here, you expect deflation. Simply not going to happen.
Quit with the aggression mate. it's not cool at all at this stage.
What figure would you vote for?
eurozone inflation running at 5.4% this year and projected (who knows with various wars ongoing at present) to be 2.9% for next year
of course many workers are experiencing higher than this depending on their circumstances
And some lower, again depending on circumstances. I know my electric bill has decreased sharply. You hit the nail on the head with that line though, depending on circumstances. It’s probably the reason why people still think a 7% increase is quite decent.
You still have not answered the question, do you honestly not understand the difference between nominal wage growth and real wage growth?
It’s 100% true. If public transport is available you have to use it.
I live in a rural area miles from Dublin but job was based in Dublin. All mileage claims were calculated from Dublin (as that would be closer) but as Dublin has public transport everywhere my claim would be based on that even though that was no use to me due to where I lived.
None of the exceptions you listed ever mattered to my travel.
That's local management though. If one of my staff live in Enfield and have to go to Cork I'm not going to make them get the train from Dublin. I'll absolutely pay the the mileage. They aren't obliged to get into Dublin for an 8am train. They would be perfectly entitled to get in for the 10am train. Arrive in Cork for 12.30 and leave that site at 14:00 to get the train home. That's madness and it works both ways.
What figure would you vote for? I absolutely understand the question. You know that it has zero relevance when it comes to the talks happening at the moment. The rise will not match inflation. It can't. It will reduce the gap between our earnings and the rise in the cost of living but it won't match it.
You actually think prices are going to fall? Jaysus
Absolutely. Interest rates will fall as will energy costs as we have seen. They are the big hitters.
When was the last time deflation happened in Ireland?
You should know, as its been pointed out to you several times already, along with the fact that Inflation reducing does not mean prices are falling. It means they are still increasing, but at a slower rate.
Go have a look at the supermarket threads on the Rip Off Ireland board, to see how prices on food in particular, are still increasing weekly. Gas and Electricity is still way more expensive than 2 years ago, with I think, 1 reduction in price so far?
Interest rates may decrease slowly as well, but if you're in a fixed rate that won't help you, and they won't be back to anywhere near what they were in the time frame of this deal anyway,
Since July 2022 the ECB rate has been increased 10 times. Will it drop them again 10 times in the next 18 months / 2 years? Will it fcuk.
Stop with the "will you accept salaries being reduced" rubbish.
is that 7% over 1, 2 or 3 years ......
2009 , 4.5%. When was the last time we have seen this rapid inflation? It isn’t farcical to think deflation is a possibility.
Grand, you do know the difference between real and nominal then. You accept that a nominal wage increase can lead to an effective (or real) wage cut by your own words "it will reduce the gap between our earnings and the rise in the cost of living but it won't match it". You can stop with this nonsense of every time someone says "wage decrease" quoting figures saying the equivalent of 61k is bigger then 60k isn't it?
To answer your question, I'll review the deal when it is released and consider it then. I think I worked out that the figure I would want over 12 months is no less then 10%. I am not concerned about how that is structured over the next 12 months as some others are on here. Is that likely? Obviously not. I am likely to be voting no in full knowledge that a much smaller deal will be voted through by a very large margin.
I think 7% over 18months is a good deal, I can’t fathom how people don’t.
Inflation in 2021 was 2.4%, 2022 was 7.8% and predicted for 2023 is 5.3%.
The increases we got year each year was: in 2021 was 1%, 2022 was 4% and 2023 is 3.5%.
Over the last 3 years, the combined inflation rate is 15.5% and the rise in workers wages is 8.5%.
On January 1st 2024, we will have seen an effective 7% reduction in wages over the past 3 years. Hence, a 7% pay deal over the next 18 month wipes that out but also sees an effective pay reduction equal to inflation over the next 18 months which is predicted to be around 4.7% (3% in 2024 and half of 3.4% in 2025). This also assumes the energy credits will be removed next year (which I believe should factor into any deal where others on this thread do not).
That is where I pull 10% from for the next deal over 12 months.
That’s fine I just don’t expect the government to match salary increases with this rapid inflationary period. It looks like they are gonna get pretty close though which I think is decent.
And wages were cut by an average of 14% by FEMPI, during that time of recession.
Some still only finally receiving restoration in 2022.
My issue is if not now, when? Next deal they are not going to look backwards either.
I don’t expect to get what I want and will vote no on principal but I’d expect something like what you are proposing to pass easily. It’s relatively easy to vote no if your confident it’s going to pass anyway in truth.
Well you are probably right there with the public finances in current rude health. It’s just hard to see them giving a double digit rise after recently getting a 7.5 rise. I see a strike as a tool, one that is less effective if pulled more often. I wouldn’t see a deal nearly matching this rapid inflation as the appropriate time to strike.
Fair point.
7% when you are on minimum €70k might seem like a good deal.
Not such a good deal when you're on around half of that, which some 32% of the civil service are, and paying today's living costs.
it is a good deal when your on half that. Especially at the lower tax bracket. I think they’ll get more anyway.
No, its not.
Its a deal many will settle for, (myself not included in that), but its not a good deal.
so 3-3.5% year ?
That’s your opinion. Nearly matching rapid inflation is to me a good deal. It’s opinion based. I mean inflation is set for 2.3 % next year!!!
Yes, it is my opinion.
Inflation at 2.3% for next year is on top of what has happened in the last two years.
You may be happy to just forget about how living costs have spiralled, and settle for another bad deal because its estimated that the cost of living won't increase quite as much or as fast next year, but I'm not prepared to accept that, either for myself or my colleagues.
7% is close to matching inflation, combined with 7.5% from before. My electric bill has had a sharp decrease too thankfully.
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