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Change to derogation

Bass Reeves

As of now we seem to know the lay of the land. From next January the derogation is reduced from 250to 220 a bit with a 10% reduction. This year from a dairying POV banding came I. That probably had a similar effect reducing cow numbers by on some farms by 10&20% depending on the level of production per cow. We also last year had the change to slurry export where the volume exported increase by 100%

However the derogation effects more than just dairy farmers it will also probably effect larger feedlot and beef units. I wound be borderline derogation time haveinga to export a tanker or two to manage to stay under 170kgs N/HA.

There seems to be a bit of a general panic about it by some producers. While this came out of the blue (admittedly we did have a blue moon a couple nights last week) most other changes to farming have been signposted it's just lads do not adjust there system to prepare for them ( eg the calf sale age and export age coming down the line)

The IFA have lost its ability to lobby effectively. While technically it's numbers have not declined significantly it has lost the connection to West of Ireland farmers who have moved to the INHFA, smaller beef producers to BP and it offshoots as well as the ICSA. ICMSA seems to be holding it own core support and now IFA has turned on that heckling it's delegates as Scabs who entered a meeting with the department last week. It also turned on the Macra President where some questioned the suitability of the Macra President to hold the post because she was female. This from a organisation where a presidential candidate suggested the ''flying calves''

My own opinion is that dairying will have to rationalise to an extent. Continual expansion no longer an option. Land is effectively the new quota with an acre of land effectively a quota to produce 5.5-6k L of milk probably at a turnover in the short to medium term a of 2-3k euro per acre.

At this price @300/ acres land rental is costing 5-5 5/ L of milk produced

400/acre = 6.5-7.2c/L

500/acre = 8-9c/L.

As well it seems the minister is going to give tillage farmers a carbon payment that will give them a competitive advantage when renting land. Mind you land leasing rules gave dairy farmers a competitive advantage over beef farmers for the last ten years.

For feedlot owners many based in tillage area this will change the game as well. While many had slurry export plans in place if they exceeded 250kgs, they now face a further export requirements as well as a doubling of volume required. The demand for land area to spread will raise the cost. Importers will probably now require volume imported to be delivered ( remember last year where charge costs increased to importers in some situations as fertilizer prices increased). This will limit the ability of many system to avoid rationalisation. Remember there were farmers above 250/HA who previously exported slurry. These now need 4-5 times the land area they exported to.

The old Chinese curse comes to mind '' that you might live in interesting times'' just as an add on I put up a poll for all farmers to vote on

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Comments

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058313193/change-to-derogation

Ifac have all the legwork down on the actual costs to farms with derogation cut to 220kgs/banding scenarios included

https://www.ifac.ie/news-insights/insights/where-to-from-here-the-financial-impact-of-environmental-changes-on-family-farms

Rationalisation really doesn't work in modern day dairying, the prevailing trend worldwide is bigger units to spread your variable/fixed costs over and keep the business performing, for good our bad the EU/Irish government are shutting down intensive agriculture in this country, effectively Irish dairy/intensive beef farmers are operating under a new quota system now that's getting progressively worse year on year in regards to nitrates, it will lead to probably a 25-30% drop in cattle numbers in the next decade and a generational problem where young people will be put of going into farming as their hands are tied re expanding/growing herd size, the knock on effects on employment in rural areas and further decay in rural villages and towns will accelerate too....

[Deleted User]

The government were taking the piss with the derogation from day one. They had no strategy as to how the extra loading of nitrates wouldn't cause widespread water pollution and yet they encouraged farmers to intensify their herds with no regard for the consequences. This is absolutely obvious from outside the country and fairly much standard practise from successive Irish governments. The EU called time on any more stalling and that's all that happened.

Someone has been played for a fool and the EU decided it was no longer going to be them.

Siamsa Sessions

Have any stats been published on the herd size of farms in derogation?

The perception is that it's all big super herds (big greedy dairy farmers, etc.) but what's the reality? Is it mostly people with 60-70 cows?

IFA seem to be trying to claim derogation will impact all farmers, and it will to an extent, but they're doing no one any favours saying "We're all in this together".

A few basic stats might help.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121096309#Comment_121096309

This is the reality, an ideological opposition to agriculture is at the heart of most of the politics across Western Europe.

mr.stonewall

The next 10 years are going to see a massive change in farming in this country due to number of factors

Age profile of farmers is going to hit a cliff and successors are thin on the ground. This has the potential to collapse the land rental market and sales market. Couple this with an older generation,less full time farmers, more part time famers and more educated and scattered siblings. Once the hump of this peak of land rental prices is over the collapse will be huge similar to the housing collapse of 2010

Environment regulations are changing the goalposts. Just look at the changes in nitrates over the past 3 years and more to come. This is going to lead to a drop in cattle numbers country wide. It will be more pronounced in stronger dairying regions due to the lack of available land.

Reduced food supply and higher energy costs have the effect of squeezing more profit out of the system. Just look at the oil market and the way OPEC have dropped supply coming into the winter and it effects on the price of the barrel of oil. There is no end in sight to the Ukraine Russia war and it could drag on for another 5 years.

Interest rates and inflation is making any investment on farm, very questionable at the moment and this has the potential to stop any expansion of any sector.

Long term, it's looking like consolidation for those that have been in dero. Opportunities are going to arise for those away from the stronger dairying and tillage areas. I have a feeling we will lose one of the big co-ops aswell

Say my name

Just to note there a lab test in other parts of the world to differentiate nitrate results in water between livestock manure and artificial fertiliser.

Nebraska have that test. Livestock producers were shouting it was the corn farmers at fault. Corn farmers were shouting it was the livestock. They tested the water and it was coming back 80 to 90% from artificial fertiliser. Artificial fertiliser lacks a carbon source to hold the nitrates from leaching.

They are that far ahead on testing and know the pinpoints. We however with our ignorance and vegan agenda have it for livestock while not fully examining where the nitrate came from.

bb12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121096854#Comment_121096854

the reality is this is all an agenda to get rid of all small farms and pretty much every individual farmer...they want corporations in control of all the food supply...so while the farm land prices may collapse, the big boys are patiently waiting in the wings to snap every last piece of it up..they've got all the time in the world and in the meantime are actually funnelling and organising the slow collapse.

happening everywhere in the western world...look at how the amish are being attacked in the US..a chemical derailment that destroys the soil for hundreds of years right in the heart of amish farmland...regulations to stop them selling meat and produce to the public with the threat of huge jail sentences....not to mention the dutch farmers...these boys are starting small and slowly working their way up the ladder..

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121097331#Comment_121097331

I love conspiracy theories.

Gman1987

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121096959#Comment_121096959

Any chance they could differentiate the nitrates source three sources? 1. livestock manure 2. Artificial fertiliser and 3. other . Plenty of sewage and industrial discharges ending up in our waterways but farmers are taking 100% of the blame.

[Deleted User]

Plenty of beef and dairy farmers using copious amounts of artificial fertilizer.

minerleague

Is it possible to move from 250kg H/ ha to 220 just by exporting slurry? Good few new organic farmers now can take slurry from conventional farms I believe ( as well as tillage farmers? )

edit to say just see now this was answered in beef price thread already

Siamsa Sessions

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098010#Comment_121098010

Define "plenty" and "copious".

And while you're Googling that, try to find out how much bagged fertiliser tillage farmers use per HA.

K.G.

I wonder could you dna the pollution in the water to see where the pollution came from.it would conclusively prove where the issues are coming from

[Deleted User]

The fact that the decline in water quality tracks both the areas where intensive beef/diary takes place and worsens in lock step with cattle numbers increasing is the basis of the attribution.

White Clover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098010#Comment_121098010

To be fair now I'd say what you know about farming and this subject in particular could be written on the back of a postage stamp. You have your own agenda at play.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098618#Comment_121098618

If you mean I would like to see pollution end then yes I have my own agenda.

White Clover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098634#Comment_121098634

Have you posted about the pollution from local authorities and others excluding farmers?

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098648#Comment_121098648

Thats not whats been discussed here and that not by any stretch the primary cause of water pollution - so I wont be diverting down that track for your pleasure. It does no one any favour to deny the issue and its primary cause. It seems that every farmer in the land thinks that the EU are fools and their scientists vindictive - not a good look.

White Clover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098673#Comment_121098673

Go away and educate yourself by keeping an open mind. You have an agenda so I guess that won't happen. You and your ilk are the fools, dangerous fools.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098695#Comment_121098695

It seems not all farmers are so blinded by bias:

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/we-need-to-plan-for-farming-without-derogation-inhfa-782822"

GrasstoMilk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058313193/change-to-derogation

The macra president coming out saying Ifa are sexiest is complete and utter bs

she’s not capable of the role she had and that’s the long and the short of it. She got the job handy

she was on rte radio at the weekend and couldnt tell the presenter how the drop to 220 was going to affect a 100’cow farmer operating near the 250 bracket

there is lots of women involved in Ifa that are highly highly respected. My wife held roles at local and county level and never had any issues

she expects her voice to have higher weighting just because she’s a women and that’s about the size of it

SuperTortoise

Cutting of nitrates is of course the new quota system, anyone that could'nt see that coming with the last number of years must be asleep.

As a small beef farmer it does'nt effect me YET, but it will in the very near future as the limits are reduced year on year.

Grueller

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098010#Comment_121098010

Define copious?

Grueller

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098080#Comment_121098080

Great minds think alike Siamsa.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098793#Comment_121098793

Sorry but I taught it was par for the course. Its not the first nor will it be the last time that an agri representive body official(and we have had some very poor preformances from IFA officials) went on the radio or TV and did not know there ar5e from there elbow about an issue. I did not hear the interview however my understanding was most of the critism mentioned that she was female that is sexist. It was a bit of the kettle calling the pot black and then bring into the discussion that the pot was female.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098012#Comment_121098012

The issue is that most new organic farms are in non pressure dairy area's so its not going to be major help. Exporting slurry has a cost. One you are exporting a valuable resourse and its unlikly that any importer from now on will make much of a contribution towards the cost. With slurry now you only export 2.4 kgs of N/cubic meter that is about 11 units/1k gallons I think. So to get under 220 from the 250 you would need nearly 3K gallons/HA. On a 150 acre dairy unit that is about 175K gallon approx I think.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121096696#Comment_121096696

I think there is a lot of waffe about this from the IFA and the Farmers Journal. Most lads I see locall milking sub 100 cows seem to have scope to cover the regulations. Most have expanded using TAMS so are not carrying the debt level of larger units. Many larger units have expanded outside the TAMS structure. While they have saved compared to TAMs costings these expansions are above costs of smaller and midsized units. As well these units may have non family labour costs, when you hear the IFA and FJ getting excited its not ordinary Joe Soaps they are worried about. As well these units at max derogation are more than likly facing significant investment to hold calves for up to 3 weeks longer. Some of these units have uncovered cubiciles, I think there is a regulation that all cows have to have a roof over them soon as well I think I may have this one incorrect.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121096309#Comment_121096309

The basic stats are very basic, actually I call them BS. One thing I have learned over the years is your accountant is there to do the tax figures not to run your farm. Quite simply they have reduced you cow number's by the percentage of the nitrates directive which is fair enough, however they have only reduced your Fertlizer and ration by a similar amount. I be expecting to reduce costs by 15-20% next year and by more the following year. Quite simply you will need less grass grown next year, less silage made and should be able to reduce rations fed as well.

Next spring I would have a long hard think about when I would start calving in 2025 depending on where I was in any band. Winter produced milk will have the most cost so that is where you will save costs the most. Deciding to delay calving by 2-3 weeks with some cow types may shove you down a band and reduce cost, the aim now will be to optimise the band you are in. If you have 10% less cows you will need 10% less silage this should allow more area into the milking platform. another option is to consider doing away or significantly reducing third cut. Consider slightly reducing the quality of one of the silage cuts if you are considering a longer break between end of milking and calving.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121098867#Comment_121098867

Not unless you are above 170 kgsN/HA, I cannot see it effecting my system much in the next ten years I actually think there is a good chance that the 220 will stay or only be minimally reduced in 2026.

roosterman71

On this @Bass Reeves

Exporting slurry has a cost. One you are exporting a valuable resourse and its unlikly that any importer from now on will make much of a contribution towards the cost. With slurry now you only export 2.4 kgs of N/cubic meter that is about 11 units/1k gallons I think. So to get under 220 from the 250 you would need nearly 3K gallons/HA. On a 150 acre dairy unit that is about 175K gallon approx I think.

Where is the cost? If you have too much slurry, or are already index 3/4 for P then you simply have to get rid of it or reduce cattle numbers. There's only a cost if you reduce numbers. Exporting slurry over your limit and can't use isn't a cost unless you are paying for it to be exported. Any farmer now over the limit and trying to ride neighbouring farmers who import their slurry by charging them to take what is essentially waste should be told to go **** themselves.

GrasstoMilk

https://x.com/colmmarkey/status/1701579875264471195?s=46&t=1e9RhOK1E-GkJ-gG5nwFRQ

we have a weak minister

hoe come markey can get this commitment and our minister can’t ?

alps

You just don't know who to believe at this stage.

TinyMuffin

Big dairy farmer not too far from here was giving €10k to farmers to take 100000 gallons of slurry on paper. That was last year. Must enquire what he’s up to this year.