Old thread seems to be permanently locked. It will be interesting if anything can come of this at last.
Threadbanned Posters:
Interesting if true.... Not too many stalkers in West Cork I would imagine...?
Recent comment regarding on-going investigation concerning a non-national person of interest:
'' The man speaks fluent French but is from another European country. He also used a rented car which had false number plates.
Gardai have the name of the man following Sophie and an address for him in France... ''
Sigh........
OK.
Cats have four legs.
My dog has four legs.
Therefore my dog is a cat.
Similar logic.
None of it is likely. Any scenario you present will be incredibly unlikely and will involve ... "because reasons". Even if it turns out to have been Bailey, it would still be incredibly unlikely.
It is also understood Gardai are also pursuing a connection between the tragic filmmaker and two other French men who lived in West Cork, although the men themselves are not suspects. The pair were hiding out in the isolated rural area after receiving death threats from a French criminal gang. It is understood that Sophie had met the men while she was in Ireland and Gardai are investigating whether she was targeted because of her friendship with them.
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/travel/news/garda%C3%AD-trace-french-speaker-with-scratches-on-his-face-spotted-in-kerry-pub-night-after-sophie-toscan-du-plantier-murder/ar-AA15gcyy
OK, whatever you say.
But Sophie was definitely murdered.
And her killer was either a man or a woman.
And as most killers of women are men, it was more likely to be a man. Not certainly, just more likely.
So a vague conspiracy of French citizens allegedly resident in West Cork at the time who might or might not have murdered Sophie because reasons. Do you think that any of this is likely?
That's more or less what I suspect happened.
Maybe you need to read up on the reliability of memory -
in short, it shouldn't be relied on.
It would be equally relevant to consider the statisical rate for murder in Ireland in 1996 was 0.00116% and therefore conclude that Sophie was not murdered.
As I said statistics apply to a population, not an individual.
Of course I don't know these things for certain. Only the culprit knows that but my assumptions seem reasonable ones to make given what we know.
The point I was making related to the then state pathologist and the forensic investigative team having to drive from Dublin in search for this place - in December 1996. I would imagine the local gardai and ambulance service - both based in Bantry - may also have had difficulty finding the exact location of the crime.
Maybe you need to read up on the facts
Jules’ account of their movements on the morning of 23 December is at odds with the account one of her daughter’s gave. Her daughter says Jules and Ian were out of the house that morning whereas Jules has said in previous statements that they didn’t leave the house until later in the afternoon. Jules also asked her daughter to change her statement but her daughter refused.
A witness has stated Jules talked to him in his shop about the murder on the morning of 23 December. Jules says he’s mistaken and it was the 24th of December when she was in his shop. His shop wasn’t open on that date.
There are other anomalies regarding Jules’ accounts of events in the day/days after the murder. These are just some examples.
Jules has told the truth from day one. The only contractions in her story were the fabricated statements by the corrupt Gardai. Why would she start telling lies now?
Now I am lost.
Yes. He dunnit.
When he dies..will Jules change her story?
All along, and notably with unbiased hindsight since estranged, Jules Thomas has maintained that he is innocent. Unlikely that anyone knows him better.
IB just fits the agenda of others. IMO.
He as in Bailey not have gone there at all... to be exact.
The person or persons unknown may have gone there to warn off or threaten Sophie. Or perhaps expected to find someone else there eg as mentioned on the thread earlier there were French citizens hiding out in West Cork from French criminals who may have been known to Sophie.
A car may have been involved. If the Lyons didnt hear the attack they wouldnt hear a car.
He may not have gone to Sophie’s with murder in mind at all - and the intention to cause harm was formed while there, the violence resulting from a spontaneous loss of temper with the killer ultimately going too far. I don’t believe he went there to kill her - he was out of his mind drunk on spirits. He must have felt terrible regret when he sobered up and realised the enormity of what he had done… though most of the regret was really self-pity, given his off the chart narcissism.
Good point about being on foot - a car may have been involved, at least for part of the journey to Sophie’s.
Your last paragraph just isn't correct.
" because the house is remote it could only have been a local"
Not necessarily someone local, but someone either familiar with the area (could be local), or with instructions from someone familiar with the area, they could be from anywhere. In your case you had enough information to be able to pinpoint Sophie's house on your map before you set out, where did you get that information from? Did you just key in P81Y364 into your sat-nav?
Statistically, perpetrators of violent attacks on women are men.
https://blog.policy.manchester.ac.uk/posts/2020/03/gender-and-sexual-violence/
Just as plausible, and as much evidence...
No, of course it doesn't.
I just said that it was, statistically, more likely to have been a man.
Statistics are only valid for a population, not an individual.
By the main suspect, you mean IB?
Only proven guilty of being a twit and having physically assaulted his partner.
Very strange case overall. But most likely that the main suspect went to see her from the bar and then got frustrated after his advances.
Or 2 perhaps, one of each?
A fight with a woman, and her male partner came back to finish the job with the concrete block. Remember both the first Guards on the scene and the doctor claimed there was 2 different ages of blood.
That does not say it was a man. There are no other indicators (force, sexual, bite, punch..) to say it was a man.
Further, female suspects become more relevant in murder investigations where a frenzied attack has taken place. Think 76 stab wounds.
No, it certainly cannot be ruled out.
But, statistically, its more likley to have been a man.
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