From the Isthmuth of Perekop pretty much all of Crimea will be within GLSDB range. Which should be arriving soon. Not to mention the arrival of F-16s which will have nothing to threaten them in the south from Russia if the landbridge is broken.
Once Russia loses the landbridge and the Crimean bridge is an underwater tourist attraction they haven't a goddamn hope of holding Crimea. It's effectively a dead-end turkey shoot. Ukraine won't have to enter it by force. And Russia knows this well. Or they'd have retreated there already. Instead of burning through their reserves to hold the frontline in the south where it is.
Due to the reluctance of Western partners to supply long range missiles, Ukraine now claim they have developed their own, with a range of 300km. If it's true then the bridge is already within range. It's claimed that this missile was used in the attack on Crimea last week.
Ya but can't missiles like those be shot down similar to planes and drones in a way that more "dumb fire" stuff can't which is more what I was thinking.
"the Crimean bridge is an underwater tourist attraction".
🤣 brilliant. Once it starts to grow marine life we should petition to have it named "Putin's Folly Reef"
The Russian dwarfs causeway.
Looks like they have a homegrown missile with 700+ km range.
But I suspect when Ukraine reach the Azov sea, they can launch their drone boats, when they reach closer or eroded Russian air defences, they can use their own drones to attack the bridge. Maybe when there's a nice target on the rail bridge.
Also mentioned was the GDLB's, stormshadow's etc... They actually have multiple options and they just need 1 to hit it to take it out of action. Then the Russians are stuck using ferrys to supply Crimea, which will be more targets to sink.
I think the 700km weapon has a 5kg payload that's only effective against soft skinned targets, ie aircraft, fuel trucks and people.
They will need something with a larger payload to damage the bridge sufficiently.
Most probably
If it's accurate and in large numbers then it doesn't really matter. Just hit a train and then again once that is cleared away, rinse and repeat, and they can put the bridge out of action effectively.
A thing to keep an eye on is the Slovakian general election due on the 30th of this month. Leading the polls at the minute is a populist pro-Russian candidate called Robert Fico who was the PM previously. He apparently wants to end aid to Ukraine. Its been noted as well that there’s a very active Russian disinformation campaign in the country. Depending on the outcome we might have another Hungary type situation emerging.
Just hit a train? Just hit a moving train from 700km away? Simples really.
Hopefully they can get in range to knock the bridge, but i agree the best chance is water drones. I saying that I'd be surprised if barges weren't put in on the inward side of the bridge once this became a threat... but then again it might take a strike for the Russians to realise it's a threat.
Well mostly just the threat of possibly hitting something is going to seriously upset the transport over the bridge. Don't necessarily need to be accurate if you are able to fling a lot of small exploding things in the general direction. Only need one to hit.
But depends on how many they have.
A Russian telegram channel I follow showing off the Russians using this artillery piece from the 50's. While it would still offer good suppressing fire in an area there's no doubt it wouldn't be as effective as what the Russians used to use and the range is probably far less. It's a good trend and long may it continue. Here's to next summer when Russia starts using artillery that seen action in WW2.
They might give up most of Crimea in a situation like that, but I wonder if they’d try to mimic the Soviets and try to barracade themselves into Sevastopol.
This port is ultimately what Russia wants on the peninsula. However, I don’t fancy their chances maintaining a defence of the city this time if Ukraine block them into a siege.
Deranged
The irony of Russia losing Crimea through bloody bloody war considering they took it and held it for nearly a decade without firing a single shot 😀
The suspect-
There's idiots like that here too. While walking past the Chinese embassy yesterday, I encountered a lovely gent proudly wearing a "Fuçk the Ukraine" t-shirt (the c was a Russian sickle) and berating the Falun Gong protestors (presumably for their backward swastika logo or some other such nonsense). I alerted the Garda up the street at the UK embassy in the hope they'd remove this stellar specimen from society.
Remove them from society? Don't you mean remove them from the embassy?
Oh, here we go again - the kind of society I want to live in doesn't include people like the one mentioned. Now, I'd rather this example of backwards evolution sees the error of his ways at some point and re-joins civilisation, but until then he can feck right off and keep going.
Civilisation and polite society has rules, some written, some implied (you might even call the implied rules 'manners'). These are the grease that keep the wheels spinning smoothly and allow large groups of people to more or less get along.
If you want to be in the game, you have to abide by the rules. If you don't like the rules you can either try to get all the players to agree to changing them, or go and find another game whose rules suit you.
Don't start your twattery about 'the poor, ordinary Russians' - if they live in Russia and are not doing anything to better their situation, they reap what they sow, and if they don't live in Russia, they don't have the right to tell everyone else how to live.
Nope, lock him up and ship him home at the earliest opportunity. We don't need his type of input here.
Had he committed a crime? Personally, the Russian supporter sounds like a sad sack, as do the Falun Gong crowd. What are they hoping to achieve in Dublin? Theatrical twits.
I assume he had committed a crime, right? Because if he didn't commit a crime, here you are, without a hint of irony or self-awareness, beating your chest for demonstrating that you would have thrived in East Germany or some other Soviet state as an apparatchik or informant.
In Ireland we have a culture that allows people (and sad sacks) to protest and counter protest without informants running off to the police about it. I will assume he committed a crime though, because no one could be so oblivious to Western values while at the same time claiming to defend them.
Nigh on four months of Ukraine's "counter offensive" and no significant progress whatsoever (a few fields and literally a couple of villages) ☹️ The Russians remain comfortably dug in to their new territories with no sign of them attempting any sort of breakout of their own despite having amassed a huge force in Kharkiv.
I maintain the partition now looks more or less like how the conflict will end after the negotiations, minor Ukranian gains here and there aside.
They have made progress in recent weeks though, regaining territory, breaking first lines of defense in several directions, striking targets deep inside Russia. It's not spectacular, but it's progress by any metric, and they are not done yet. In other words, the current lines are not and will not be the final lines when it comes to any deal, IMO.
From the Guardian feed:
"A new Russian high school text book has sought to justify its war of aggression in Ukraine, as students returned to classes following the summer break.
The New York Times reports that a revised textbook alleges that Ukraine is an “ultranationalist state” where “opposition is forbidden,” and that the US is “the main beneficiary of the Ukrainian conflict.”
The rewritten version of “The History of Russia, 1945 to the beginning of the 21st Century,” a textbook for 16- and 17-year-old students, devotes almost 30 pages to the war. The NYT said the authors framed it as a response to “an increasingly aggressive West” that wanted to use Ukraine as a “battering ram” to destroy Russia."
Interesting and telling how close this is to the views of Daly, Wallace and all of that brigade.
It took a long time to navigate the Russian minefield and their entrenched positions. It seems some of these have now been overcome and steady progress has been seen over the past three days.
It was forecast before the counter offensive began that lines would start moving quick enough once all Ukraine's accumulated armour had come into play. However, it turned out that this prediction was inaccurate once you factored in the extensive minefields Russia had laid, plus Ukraine's lack of air support.
In spite of this, the AFU have managed to carve out a significant wedge in Russia's front line and are working to open a gap in Russia's first main line of defence.
As someone else mentioned, each KM that Ukraine manages to take will narrow the east/west supply route that runs along the land corridor Russia has established. If Ukraine manages to get far enough down the Tokmak/Melitopol route so that this whole supply corridor is within the range of Ukr guns, along with increasing antagonisation of the Kerch Bridge, it gives Russia a real migraine headache.
Important to note. A video recording of Russian atrocities.
Also important to note how the Russian state operates and impresses its people to work as a horde to colonise new land.
Also important to note how the new colonisers don't need to know the former civilians history and culture as they will destroy it and make their own version.
RuSSia.
Funnily enough, he had, per the Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hatred and Hate Offences) Bill 2022. You can't wear any old slogan on a t-shirt these days.
You really shudder to think what's been going on in all of the towns that Russia has been officially occupying since Feb 2022. It is clear that the Russian government has a contempt of Ukrainian culture and identity quite similar to what the Nazis had of Slavic peoples, if not the same.
For people still talking about negotiation, what is a suitable reparation for Russia to pay regarding the focused ethnic cleansing they have been perpetrating?
Carentan was just a village. The entirety of the Allied advance across Normandy was slow, piecemeal and involved almost excruciating pace clearing tiny hamlets. There's more to the offensive than KMs gained - as has been routinely outlined here.
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