The nuke threats usually increase just before Russia loses more Ukrainian territory. It augurs well.
putin must have the most up-to -date Oxford Dictionary because , no matter what happens, he can explain it away to his advantage.
One of the most recent examples of this is the Wagner position . He said that it’s leader is a traitor and we know what Putin does with traitors. So how do we explain that Putin has DONE NOTHING about it - and all the tea in China and that- and has said ABSOLUTLY NOTHING about it either since he called Prizoghin ‘a traitor’.
The answer , IMO , lies in what’s happening in Niger or the Nigers’ of this world. It starts off like this :-
Russia prefers a dictatorship - with a strongman , like himself, to a democracy and he is willing to ‘help out’ any army guy /revolutionary group that’s willing to overthrow a democracy. And where that is the case there is a payback required and this is where Wagner comes in . The payback is in the form of some asset/s , such as gold mining output making it’s way to Russian coffers - Which Wagner has ample experience in. So why would Putin get rid of Prizoghin when he can be so lucratively useful to Putin re the above ventures.
And apart from the above advantage there is another one. The above , when it happens, leads to refugees , asylum seekers and individuals emigrating to seek a better, safer and more secure life and we know to which countries they go to Thus PUTTING ALL TYPES OF PRESSURE on such countries which is to PUTIN’S advantage
No I didn't.
Any other lies you need me to help you with?
Wasn't necessarily referring to you specifically, more a general group that was previously very vocal about such predictions, less so in recent weeks it has to be said
The issue Kermit is that Medvedev & the Russian administration has thrown out the tactical nuclear threat several times now. It's like the boy who cries wolf, there is always a small possibility that there is an actual wolf but the message loses it's effect. Even if the message is targeted towards a home audience, they've heard it all before too. And therefore credibility is further eroded on all fronts.
I think this fear was valid in the early days of the war. I suspect hearing from the Americans what the consequences would be has greatly reduced any likelihood that Russia would go that far. At the same time, having nuclear weapons is the only insurance policy Russia really has against the west. So it's a delicate balance
Be that as it may the fact remains they have those weapons.
Ukraine winning is basically cornering Putin because he's finished if Ukraine win the war.
Cornered animal etc...
No country can protect 100% of their skies from small / low-altitude threats.
Ground-based radar systems are great at spotting things at high-altitude like bombers or ballistic missiles. When things are at low-altitude it's much harder. A radar system can see low-altitude threats only when they are close to it; as they get further away they get masked among clutter like buildings, terrain, eventually they disappear under the horizon. To have 100% coverage against these threats you would need thousands of short-range systems spaced like cell-phone towers... no country has this many.
So for low-altitude threats you put your short-range AA systems where you think you need them. Near military bases, airports, critical infrastructure, etc.
If the route is chosen carefully, a small drone like a Shahed can therefore fly long distances across a country with low chance of interception. When it approaches it's target - if there are sufficient AA systems in the area - is when it is most likely to be shot down. Russia does it to Ukraine and Ukraine can just as easily do it in Russia, if they can produce these in sufficient number.
Cornered animals usually die....
I'm feeling quite optimistic if the nuclear whistle is being blown; clearly something's not going well on the front lines; perhaps reports landing in the Kremlin speak of failure, if suddenly Russia's reminding everyone what big nuclear weapons they have.
Good article on how many in the Western European Left have ignored and continue to ignore the consequences of Russian imperialism/colonialism.
See saudi's thrown there peace hat in just waiting for NK try same.
Hard to initiate anything with Russian lying and stabbing in the back culture.
The core of Russian governance including Medvedev needs to be taken out with drone launched helfires, just for making threats of using nukes alone are outrageous.
This would be my take also.
When the nuclear threats are being rolled out things are clearly not going well for russia.
He would be finished if he used a nuke. China would immediately withdraw all support.
Everybody, everywhere would withdraw support.
Except North Korea which would be even more of a reason for the US to obliterate the Russian forces.
Imagine NK seeing Russia getting away with a nuke attack
Russia will never use nuclear weapons for quite a simple reason. Look at Putin - here we see a man utterly TERRIFIED of dying (if he's in any way a believer, he may have an inkling where he's going). His whole lifestyle is based around avoiding assassination attempts, real or imagined, and not getting Covid or anything else that's catching. This is not a man who is going to risk getting himself blown up by initiating a nuclear escalation.
Left solidarity with Russia is still strong, not as strong in Western Europe as during the USSR days, outside of the Western world it is still as strong
Putin, medvedev, Lavrov etc are living a life of luxury and privilege beyond which any of us here will ever know or the vast majority of the worlds population will ever know. An extremely rare life of privilege and unimaginable wealth. Of course they are going to destroy all that in a hail of nukes over the welfare of Russian speakers in Ukraine.
They are still fighting the last war, or rather forgot what they were fighting for and just kept the same 'opponent'.
Putin is quickly becoming the man who destroyed Russia. Great legacy.
Let's start with with the pivot that these talking heads are, as always, peddling the idea that Ukraine is a "non country" and thus their actions not illegal or repugnant; that all those who'd try and fuss and wail about NATO or America are choosing to wilfully ignore the reality that Russia sees this invasion as pure regime change & that this isn't some waffle about protecting Russian Speakers - but naked theft.
For reasons best known to themselves it unfortunately is. Here's another decent article written by a Polish leftist/anarchist. Hard hitting, but makes his point well.
Need to do a copy & paste on the link below. For some reason it won't open by clicking on it.
https://freedomnews.org.uk/2022/03/04/****-leftist-westplaining/
Why would Russia nuke a country that borders the most populated side of Russia? And if they were to inflict maximum damage to the Ukrainian army they'd need to nuke the East Or South East of Ukraine. It would be semi nuking themselves.
The amount of lads I know who's first thing they bring up about this war is how they just think it'll Keep escalating until Russia nukes Europe. The fear mongering works.
"Oops! That page can’t be found."
Only a large dose of humiliation will cure them.
Depends on the size of the nuke really.
If you used a 10Kt tactical nuclear weapon it would have a smaller detonation radius than Hiroshima/Nagasaki.
Go to https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ and detonate a 10Kt warhead over some spots in Ukraine, it's very very small given the size of the country itself.
Still, not ideal to be dropping such items on your own boarder, I do agree there - but not so catastrophic that it's out of the question.
Fixed it now. Here it is again.
The expletive in the URL somehow turned it into a broken link??? Just do a copy & paste instead of a normal click on the link.
IF Russia were to use a nuke of any size, and got away with it, it would give a green light to every government who possesses them to do the same. China can nuke Taiwan, North Korea can nuke South Korea, Israel can nuke Iran. It would be unbelievably dangerous waters the whole world would be sailing into.
Similarly to the property market, its all about location location location.
If you drop any nuclear weapon on a city it's going to kill a huge amount of people. Even small yield 'tactical' ones.
The 'tactical' part comes into effect with the ability to use them away from cities in battlefield type scenarios with a relatively localised effect. If used correctly they shouldn't impact Russia itself. (Until of course Nato rains down ICBMs on them!)
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