Today (16-12-2022) John Fitzgerald has an article on the cost of Unification of Ireland.
[Might be paywalled]
He makes the point that the cost to the Irish State might be significantly higher than many would suggest, and that NI would carry a proportion of the UK borrowings.
He particularly says the Social Welfare State pensions would fall to the Irish State to pay. He instances the Scottish proposal in their 2014 referendum.
Now this I disagree with because the UK state took all the contributions for the state pensions from the workers who would now be entitled to that pension after 40 years of contributions. Furthermore, those contributions could have been paid into the fund from any part of the UK as it is not a separate NI fund. It is a UK wide fund, and contributions are not identified as to where the employment occurred.
Now it has been argued that the pensions are paid from current taxes, but that is like saying my mortgage is paid from my income, but my mortgage is still due if my current income is zero. I bought my house when I signed the contract, and money was passed over - not by paying the vendor over thirty years.
There is another difference. Scotland was leaving the UK to form a new state, and the basis for Scotland departure failed to win the referendum, so that proposal is now reduced to nought.
It is not the same for NI. NI is moving from one state to another, which has its own financial structure. I would think the UK state pensions will continue to be paid as they are to those in Ireland that are entitled to them, having worked in the UK and paid contributions, and have an entitlement to them. So a worker in Lisburn works forty years and gets a UK State pension, and another works in Leeds for forty years. NI votes for unity, and the Leeds worker continues to get a UK pension but the Lisburn worker gets an Irish pension. Say they both move to Cork on retirement, and do not even vote in the referendum, why should they be treated differently? It can be even more tricky, if they both move to Newry on retirement, or part of their working life was in GB and part in NI. It is too simple to say the liability passes to the Irish State.
Another point regards the GFA.
What terms are built into the GFA for NI to transfer from being governed from Westminster to being governed by Dublin? I never saw any condition beyond a simple majority voting for it - North and South. I never voted to take on the NI share of the UK national debt, and certainly not the current UK debt.
So, say a whopping majority, N&S, vote for unity - will the UK Gov say 'Wait a minute - there is a big bill to pay!'
Would they go against the majority and demand unreasonable terms? What would reasonable terms be? Would NI be saddled with all the chumocracy bills that the UK has had to swallow for dodgy PPE or failed track and trace, or even Johnson's parties in No. 10? Or the cost of two Royal Navy aircraft carriers ploughing the South China Sea with its complement of American Marines? Or the cost of nuclear subs? Or with its share of the HS2 railway infrastructure serving the SE UK, or the new Elizabeth Line underground railway for London. These are all very significant costs that have no bearing on NI.
I think the whole basis should be with zero baggage. The UK would save a huge annual subsidy to NI every year, and should continue the subsidy for perhaps a decade. They should agree a deal and have the same joy as a successful seller of a clapped out motor has when the cheque clears.
