Not necessarily. What I gathered from that Guardian article was the potential for a smaller and more containable radioactive event was at risk here. If the Russians blow cooling ponds, it seems the aftermath might just be insignificant enough in the grand scheme of it all to see them get away with it.
All guess work and nothing may happen but if they do decide to blow the plant, I can imagine they'll only do so in a way that allows them to keep their head above water.
Ukraine has literally been asking for more help since the opening week of the war. Zelenskyy's message to the world on week 1 was, "Please - close the skies."
"Appear strong when you are weak and weak when you are strong."
In the opening week of the war, few predicted that Ukraine would not only not be overrun by Russia, but that they would hold the vast majority of their territory, have reduced Russia to a defensive posture, and be putting together counter-offensive operations. Ukraine has constantly downplayed its true combat effectiveness while always pressing for more weapons via public pronouncements, usually by Zelenskyy. He's been on what seems like a perpetual junket to keep aid coming. It's not that Ukraine's allies won't have a proper idea of what Ukraine is actually getting, but it helps a lot with allies' public support for giving the aid to always say that Ukraine doesn't have enough.
This isn't to say that Ukraine couldn't really use those F-16s, for example, it's only to say that you're never going to get a true picture of the state of things via public pronouncement like that. In war, cards will be held close to the chest and deception is crucial. Well, that's what the canny participants will do. Ukraine haven't been bad at it so far.
Look at what Russia has built to withstand what they think Ukraine could throw at them, and we probably get a truer picture of their capability as things stand.
Even if NATO don't act in such circumstances, I'd be stunned if Biden doesn't unleash the USAF.
At the very least, it would drag the the Baltics into the conflict
"Setting off a small explosive close to the plant but not enough to threaten a nuclear release" -- that worked well with the Nova Kakhovka dam. Trust the Russians to f*ck things up.
NATO need a black/white event at the plant to happen to trigger a big response, the Russians are unlikely to play ball with that. I would guess the Russians will instead "play games" with the plant, e.g. moving staff away from it, or setting off a small explosive close to the plant but not enough to threaten a nuclear release.
Of course they have no problem murdering Ukrainians and destroying Ukraine and causing a nuclear accident there, it's just that tactically and strategically I don't think it suits them for now. Keyword: for now. I remember last year there was a lot of talk of the dams being rigged by the Russians. They waited very patiently on that one.
China trying to demand restraint if radioactive fallout is being spread across NATO member states won't have any impact on what NATO does to putin's forces for causing a nuclear incident in Ukraine and it has been repeatedly spelled out by NATO that putin's forces would face severe consequences if this happened. If putin got away with using radiation as a weapon once there is a load of ex soviet nuclear material where he could repeat the same tactic again and again and again so NATO has to respond once this line is crossed.
China also shares a border with russia and I can't see how they would be happy to look for leniency for putin once he crosses the red line of actually deliberately causing an incident that leads to nuclear fall out.
The nuclear fall out won't just stop at the border with Ukraine and he will also have to face causing the deaths of large numbers of russians in areas where moskow may already be unpopular.
If they do it then they'll do it in a manner that allows them and their useful idiots to claim that it was actually Ukraine that did it for....reasons
Basically the dam playbook all over again. Tucker Carlson will blame the UAF. Western far-lefties will blame the CIA.
Basically everyone will rush to confirm their priors.
If Russia decides to destroy the nuclear power plant to gain advantage or create some kind of zone of exclusion, they will of course deny, deny, deny, and the Chinese, who show no signs of withdrawing their support, will demand restraint from the West while an investigation is launched....which one imagines would be extremely difficult. It's frightening because Russia is completely beyond the pale now, and we are seeing them use increasingly desperate tactics.
Wouldn’t still be enough for Worzel Gummidge and his sidekick to publicly condemn Russia.
They’d find a reason somewhere to keep blaming NATO and the ‘corrupt EU’ !
If it gets that far I'd say lots of recriminations and a massive step up in supply of conventional weapons/support bringing an accelerated end to this sorry war....but I doubt nato/us launch nukes tactical or otherwise.
A country ruled by a deluded narcissist whose powerbase may be threatened and who has gone on record saying a world without a strong Russia is a world not worth having.
I suspect he and his cronies love their lives of wealth and luxury too much to throw it all away over Ukraine, but you never know
If they do it, I'd expect NATO air strikes to cripple the Russian military and sink the Black Sea fleet within hours.
If Russia did this at Zaporizhzhia, then what remained of Russia's allies would slink into the undergrowth, 'cos nobody's going to bat for a country that would knowingly sabotage a nuclear power plant. You'd imagine even the tedious ageing lefties like Lula would stop trying to Whatabout NATO. I can't seriously imagine Russia are that desperate and that maniacal that they'd slag a plant.
They would want to make shure the wind wasn't blowing from the west.
These reports are very worrying if even half true
Rare Zaluzhny interview.
He's saying what's completely obvious but few seem to want to acknowledge. Ukraine needs more help. Predictions of Russian routs and collapses, useless platitudes, thoughts and prayers, etc. aren't going to cut it.
Link without paywall https://archive.ph/2nyYu
be like that old film "convoy" only with tanks and apcs..
The Freedom of Russia Legion no doubt have been looking at how far Wagner got and could be getting ideas!
from what we saw last week with wagner,Ukraine could do it too!
Or just go into Russia and go around the defences and attack them in the rear.
Pop up to undefended Moscow on the way for some milk
Ukraine ought to respond in kind with a massive aerial mining on the Russian side of the border
"The Ukrainians are going slowly because they are trying to limit their casualties — something that bloodthirsty Russian commanders don’t care about. It is doubtful that any Western military could do any better without air superiority."
Good piece from the Wapo
Poland just received their first batch of Abrams tanks and true to their word they are giving Ukraine more of their Soviet era tanks.
If and when they blow the plant I presume the US have to respond as if it was a nuclear weapon being deployed…..
I think that is the revised plan. When they were building their fortifications, I said that I felt they are building their border. It think what they want is a Korean style DMZ Zone, except a lot thicker.
Yes, but I'd say that if / when Ukraine has one major break though, the rest will fold. The main aim and objective ( and now more than ever after the Prigozhin episode) of the Russian soldiers is survival first, second and third.
I won't be surprised if Putin would rather make eastern Ukraine uninhabitable if they can't have it.
Poland planning on sending 60 more Pt 91 tanks
I was thinking the same thing. Static defenses are tough to break through, but if a breakthrough happens it needs to be countered with a flexible mobile reserve, otherwise all you have is a lot of units in static positions waiting to be rolled up or encircled. How many elite mobile formations do the Russians have to fill that role?
Wonder what the plan is
Detonate or retreat
July 5th.
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