What if one of the top people in the Russisn MOD is working for a foreign intelligence service? They will be up to speed on events quickly in that scenario. You might be dismissive of this suggestion, but how did the US know Russia's battle plans so well prior to the war , satellites and eavesdropping technology would explain some of it, but not all. Also I wonder if what unfolded over the weekend has encouraged the actors you mention to sound out others to make a move against Putin in the future. One thing is for sure the FSB will be busy for the next couple of weeks trying to purge any threats to him. With this in mind, it's a question of when not if Prigozhin mistakes an open window on the third floor for an exit sign
Prigozhin knows how Putin operates as well as anyone. There's no way he'd agree to relocate to Belarus if he thought that Putin was going to kill him. He'd at least try to put a bit of real distance there if he thought his life was in danger. Prigozhin must believe that he has something over Putin which would prevent a quick assassination.
Unless it's all technicalities.
Putin wont kill him but Lukashenko might lol
Maybe Putin threatened to kill his family, so he had no choice but to go there. Whatever the truth is, there is no way Prigozhin called it all off to avoid bloodshed. He knew his coup would be defeated. Lukashenko now has one over on Putin too, he got him out of a jam. Lukashenko and the Russian MOD seem the real winners in all this for now.
He will probably be off to Africa soon
That possibility has just increased:
Need to be careful of the draughts at that height.
Speculation on my part but I think Prigozhin may have been expecting some support at the higher levels in Moscow to materialise. When this failed to happen due to miscalculation or otherwise, he was forced to accept the offer of Lukashenko.
Both him and his family's lives will always be at risk so long as Putin is in power. He's no idiot so will surely have known that before deciding to mutiny in the first place.
There's definitely much more to this deal than we are being let know thats for sure
"more camps to some" - Well this is getting intriguing now
Hungary being obstructive again🙄
Grain of salt but interesting if true
Hungary: the Florida(?) of the European Union.
The money and stolen resources from Africa is what's keeping Prigozhin alive.
dumptruck of salt more appropriate given the "source"
It's incredible that Hungary are still so anti-Ukraine. At this stage it's pretty obvious who is going to win the war and they are making a conscious decision to double down on their previous support of Russia.
Can they not see the reputational damage that all things Hungarian are suffering because of this? Or do they simply not care?
That said, leaks showed they sent supplies and support to Ukraine last year. No doubt they lean more towards Putin than pretty much any other EU nation but also wondering if they aren't playing a position.
Their leader is pretty dependent on the Russian propoganda machine. He is not willing to let freedom of the press show up his corruption which would be a requirement of being more western focused.
Like Belarus it is about what is best for dear leader as opposed to the population.
I think people looking for a grand tactical plan on the part of Prigozhin are mistaken and this analysis best sums it up.
Latest statement from Prig
“Despite the fact that we did not show any Aggression, a Missile Attack was launched on us. 30 Fighters were Killed and others were Injured. This served as a trigger for our Immediate Advance. One of the Columns went to Rostov, the other towards Moscow. Was not a single Soldier was Killed on the Ground. We regret that we had to Strike at Aircraft, but they Attacked us with Bombs. We traveled 780 km, this is 200km to Moscow and we Blocked all Military Bases and Airfields along the way. Among the PMC Fighters, there are several Wounded and 2 Dead - among them Employees of the Ministry of Defense that decided to join our Cause. None of the PMC Fighters was Forced to March, and everyone knew his Goal. Our March showed Serious Security Problems across our Country but it was never our Goal to Overthrow the current Regime and Legally-Elected Government.”
Prigozhin has issued an 11 minute audio message.
Thank you and thanks to Francie, it was a bit odd that Igor was the only one talking about stolen nukes
What’s the chances of this all being setup by Putin to flush out any real challengers to overthrowing the government?
This has been mentioned several times as a possibility. It may have that effect, but Putin is not the 4D chess master he likes to portray himself as, and we know this by his amazingly stupid decision to invade Ukraine. A decision of hubris and disastrously bad intelligence.
So, while it could be a setup, I'm much less sure of that than I would have been two years ago.
The pantomime continues.
Prigozhin the pantomime villan. The villan whose forces take a sledgehammer to opponents. He's the devil incarnate. He must be feared.
Putin the statesman. The troubled statesman who uses diplomacy to solve problems.
Except. EXCEPT. It's all BS.
It's a script from the Kremlin. Don't they love their operas. And love their tragedies. Knocking one over on their own and the world. The superiority of thinking another leg has been pulled. The confusion of the Russian public in that everything is false. So nothing gets done.
What has occurred?
Putin's private army went in convoy to Moscow. Outwardly against Putin's orders. The Russian army who know the bs didn't oppose them. Those who joined Wagner are dead or will be. The few who opposed in the half hearted opposition with the airforce were expendable to the cause.
Now what happens? Prigozhin has set up camp in Belarus with Wagner. It's still Putin's private army. Still able to operate from Belarus and the rest of the world. Outwardly Putin's hands are clean. Wagner are now able to operate now with even more impunity. Wagner won't have nukes unless Putin says Wagner gets nukes. Wagner won't get Russian airfields, planes, helicopters, weapons. Unless Putin allows it.
Putin now has his madman with Russian planes, helicopters, nukes, equipment in a separate country bordering the EU. It's not Putin. Oh no it's Prigozhin. It's not Russia. Oh no. It's Belarus and that madman Prigozhin who just happened to have been gifted all these goodies with no opposition from Putin.
Poor Putin. It's tough being poor Putin. He remains a master strategist. Says he tongue in cheek.
*tactical nukes are already in Belarus weeks ago.
The Americans blew the whistle in December 2021 on Putin’s preparations to invade Ukraine when no other Western intelligence service agreed. That shows the US has the best sigint, especially satellite, but also some humint within the Russian defence forces to confirm that the troop movements were not just a repeat of the Zapad exercise that had the Poles so excited in 2017. But the information would have been very widespread with the Russian military staff so I don’t think those sources have direct access to the top level.
Over the weekend, I think the Western intelligence service were totally blindsided. I don’t blame them for not anticipating Prigozhin’s move- neither did Putin - but it seems they still have no idea what really happened with the Lukashenko “deal” nor what will happen next. Even Anthony Blinken on the Sunday talk shows was reduced to the sort of speculation you can read here. We are back to the days of Kremlinology when Western “experts” on Russia scrutinised the body language among Russian leaders to figure out who was in and who was out.
One amazing feature of the weekend - the Western powers were scared sh**less that Putin would be ousted . Imagine if Prigozhin controlled Russia’s nuclear arsenal! The West can see there is no organised resistance to Putin left in Russia. If there was, they missed a golden opportunity. The only threat to Putin is a Palace coup. It may already be underway for all we know: my guess is Putin hangs on but there will be relentless jockeying for position among key figures.
@Say my name
Putin's playbook 101. Make everyone think nothing is real, nothing is genuine. Sow cynicism and sow apathy. And best of all, let it be known that this is what is being done, perpetuating the cycle. Undoing this psychological oppression will be a key factor to unseating him.
Well here in Belgrade Saturday evening, the main evening news on TV was one of rejoicing at how the incredibly stupid Americans had been taken for 6 billion USD by the clever scam orchestrated by Prigozhin and Putin. When the CIA were unable to destroy Russia on the battle field, they made a plan to stage a coup to get rid of Putin ( getting rid of elected governments is what they do) So Prigozhin set the trap months ago, and the stupid Americans fell for it, hook, line and sinker! He began bad mouthing the Russian military leadership, and became a thorn in their side, and when the CIA offered him 6 billion to finance a coup, he accepted. To make it as realistic as possible, he moved his military from Ukraine to Rostov, and then set out for Moscow, when the final payment had been confirmed, he turned his army around and away from Moscow. Mr Putin was in on the plan the whole time. This was repeated several times throughout the evening in Serbia, but strangely enough, it had vanished by the next day, and no mention has been heard of it since. And people here, also followed it hook, line and sinker. Much discussion and laughter in the bars etc.
I don't buy any of these 4D chess takes:
I realise that Putin has nurtured a reputation as the master of the dark arts but that doesn't mean that he's in control of everything. He's not omnipotent.
Exactly.
Please understand, that ALL official Russian information at a time of a crisis is a LIE. Always. Whatever Putin says about "pardoning Wagner", or Peskov saying that Prigozhin is in Belarus, or that Lukashenko averted the crisis and now everything is a hunky dory, these are all lies. We know some probably-true facts: that Putin considers Prigozhin a traitor; that the Russian MoD attacked Wagner's camp; that some Wagner troops were moving towards Moscow without much resistance on the ground; and that they have destroyed some helicopters and a plane. There is just no way Prigozhin has no backup plan, and running to Belarus where he can be easily captured is not it. Going to Belarus with 10000 troops? Lukashenko would be doubly stupid to allow that.
I think if Prigozhin is still alive, we will see interesting things happening really soon.
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