Interview with the head of Rheinmetal, the German arms company with some interesting tidbits (needs to be translated)
Can the EU promise to supply Ukraine with one million rounds of artillery ammunition within a year?
Yes. In the short term, however, Ukraine will only get the one million rounds of artillery ammunition if European armies make stocks available. On the industrial side, we are working flat out to increase production capacities. We hire staff, make mothballed machines fit again, build new supply chains. However, it will take six to ten years before all European ammunition depots are filled.
You are involved in the preparation and maintenance of many main battle and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. How do they fare in battle?
Good! Feedback from Ukrainians on German weapons is very positive. Take the PzH2000 self-propelled howitzer, whose chassis and weapon systems were supplied by Rheinmetall. We actually say that the barrel needs to be changed after about 4500 shots. The Ukrainians, however, shoot up to 20,000 shots - actually impossible. Other pipes would have buckled long ago.
I think this is more likely to end the war than any weapons sent
If theres one thing rich people can't stand, its being taxed and they'll do everything in their power to avoid it. Putin will back himself into a corner worse than the one from his famous rat analogy.
I'm half expecting to see the 203 mm howitzer M1931(B-4) at some stage
Russia is running out of equipment. Obviously that doesn't literally mean that they will suddenly be "all out of tanks" one day. It means they have to increasingly rely on other equipment (e.g. Iranian drones), older tanks (T62's), foreign supplies (N Korea), out-dated equipment, and so on.
They have their own manufacturing base, so they can e.g. keep manufacturing plenty of artillery shells, but other stuff can be more tricky, especially the more complex equipment and munitions that are difficult to manufacture and replace.
Let's say there's a Hollywood sci-fi blockbuster moment and you wake up one morning with the world unchanged in all but one respect: instead of the UK being over the border in Northern Ireland it's now Russia. Russia exactly as she is here in our world now, same people, same president, same war currently raging with some other neighbour of theirs.
That's what Poland and the Baltic states are living with, so I can have some empathy with their situation.
Now but the cost of the war and keeping ukraine supplied with ammunition very much expensive, look at the situation here 85,000 + 30,000 Ukrainians/others living in hotels and other accomodations across the country,that could have a knock on effect for our tourism which will effect bob down the road if his family rely on incomes from the tourism sector,the same applies to over stretched services already at breaking point,
It does effect others despite us not having tanks or weapons to send
We've been hearing about Russia running out of equipment for over a year now and here we are. Just take everything you hear and read with a massive pinch of salt. Only events on the ground are a true reflection of how the battle is going not some no mark on Twitter or even American intelligence who obviously have skin in the game.
Honestly I think Poland/ Baltic escalation scenario is nearly as abhorrent and disastrous as a Russian nuclear escalation.
I remember sitting up all hours during desert storm waiting for the lastest gun cams of percision strikes,even seeing the aftermath of the High way of Death at the time which showed the true brutality of modern war ,go pros and other action cameras brought the 2nd gulf war to a new level,for the first time we saw raw Battle footage from the soldiers point of view , drones have brought another level but I find on the ground troop action more interesting to watch.
Don't know wether it's a blessing or hinderance.
I've always believed Ukraine is fabricating the amount of Russian loses for propaganda reasons as well as their own loses for same and that's okay and understandable given the tight spot they are in but i do feel reading this thread there is a hostile clique that goes on the offensive for the mere mention of same.
Like it's war for christ sake and it's okay to point out loses for either side it's not like it makes a single bit of difference to the outcome we are all just a bunch of nobody's on the internet.
I can't see Ukraine taking the risk of carrying out an action on NATO to make it look like the Russians either as if that got out support for them would dry up quicker than a spilt pint on a hot day.
The old stocks are replaced with new stock. so lots of jobs. and also if it is old stock it doesn't effect the cost of living crisis much then because it is a reduction cost of maintenance and guarding the equipment, win win.
Well it can hardly effect the cost of living crisis much then. No harm to Bob from down the road if his country has or doesn't have an older tank lying around.
How sustainable is this?
Surely there comes an inflexion point where Russia start running out of military hardware of sorts.
Granted they make have lots of older tanks and IFV but what about their missiles, helicopters, and Mobile heavy artillery, do they have unlimited stocks of this?
I know this full scale war has been going on for well over a year now but every so often I am simply amazed by some of the front-line footage that we are seeing. In past conflicts, video of artillery, mortars or rockets being fired off was a mainstay of war footage. Now though we are frequently seeing the pointy ends of things
I think there is a danger that, for the passive observer, it makes it all feel like a computer game. I find myself having to remind myself at times that this is very much real. These are real lives being extingushed out there. Those guys don't get to respawn and go again.
"Normal losses" Edit: Is this an honest translation?
Not really no ,
The majority of aid has come from older Stocks of equipment, very few jobs were created that already didn't exist
All the aid to Ukraine is western made, and sending it helps with the cost of living crisis, because more is manufactured, and this creates jobs and wages.
True, there are many factors at play that will feed into decisions. Still, a lot of bridges have been burnt and there appears to be solid agreement that Russia needs to be defeated as far as this invasion goes. That a line was crossed and no going back.
Let's hear it @SafeSurfer what have we missed
Should we be surprised Russia is throwing it's reserves at Ukraine outside of their defensive lines. This is the same army that sent around 70k soldier's to die charging at Bakhmut.
Russia losing artillery, I just hope the losses claimed by Ukraine are accurate. If they're anywhere close it's going to be a long summer for Russia. They'll have to pull artillery from elsewhere to cover the losses which may open up an opportunity to strike elsewhere.
Another thing that has to be factored in is the depletion of Nato stocks of munitions and other equipment,at the other end of the stick you have cost of living crisis, inflation,and other conflicts threatening to kick off which will could all lead to calls from some to reduce the supports and yes we will see tweets about being in this for the long run,but elections and people could change that rethortic,
Russia is losing about 20 pieces of artillery every day according to UA reports.
Depends on whether they are inside or outside the gun housing when struck.
Oryx only report visually confirmed losses. The real figure is much higher.
Yes but perhaps not the other side of the escalation equation, but instead part of an escalation plan if needed. Or at least one scenario that NATO/ Allies are prepared to develop.
So Ukrainian army has been equipped and armoured to an extent that is known to be limited but sufficient to allow a counter offensive. Thinking could be to suck this and see what happens. If it largely succeeds, well & good. If it doesn't, then escalation with a coalition of neighbouring states. Increasing the pressure on the Russian military and leadership gradually.
Modern Russian jet's radar and AA missiles out range Ukraine's. When Ukraine get F16's, Russian jet's and radar will still out range old F16's. Russia have far too many AA systems inside Ukraine and on the Russian borders, so there's zero chance of Ukraine achieving air superiority.
I'd suspect they would use them for close air support using JDAM-S. Nothing stopping them using HIMARS for that either. I don't think they will be game changers, but another tool for Ukraine to use.
They can also help defend against mass missile/drone attacks by filling in gaps in Ukraine's air defense.
I wouldn't lose faith just yet. We're still very very early into the offensive actions. Literally 6-7 days. This was never going to be a route like Kharkiv. Russia have had a literal year to set up these defenses. We've become too accustomed to watching videos of Russia throwing thousands of men and armor into the fire for centimetres of progress.
There's going to be a lot of losses on UAF side for this one. And Russia are the ones predominantly controlling the social media space. So in addition to amplifying ukranian losses they'll also, true to form, be constantly posting fakes. While Ukraine will be posting mostly nothing. So be prepared for weeks and weeks, possibly months of bad news before the light at the end of the tunnel. My own opinion is that if by say the end of August/middle of September the UAF has made minimal gains then we might have cause for concern. Until then there's nothing we can do but steel ourselves.
On the positive side we're already seeing signs that America and Europe are up to replacing the losses in armoured vehicles that UAF take. So as long as the soldiers survive the minefields and ambushes(which they seem to have so far) then the offensive will steadily eat into Russian fortifications. These lines only have to break once. The second the lines break in one single position every other defensive line north of this becomes useless. But getting to that point will be a hard slog no doubt.
In addition Russia are going to continually face degrading logistics for supplying these positions due to long range fire and partisan attacks on supply lines. To the point where they simply may not have the ammunition to hold Ukraine back. The same cannot be said of Ukraine.
I think it was always on the cards, especially with Poland,they know if Russia turn thing's around (highly unlikely) that they would end up with Russian on their borders,and the smaller Baltics could struggle again outside aggression,so it always makes sense that they could form their own coalition against putin and move into ukraine
Could be more Leopard 2's on the way for Ukraine
"A clear majority in the National Council wanted to send a signal to Ukraine, but also and above all to Europe. By a vote of 132 to 59, he decided to decommission 25 Leopard 2 tanks from the army. The next stage is the Council of States, where there are significantly more critical voices in the ranks of the FDP and the center party. The tank trade is not yet sealed."
It’s hard to see Poland and the baltics staying out of it if Russia make progress. That is the other side of the escalation equation that NATO has to consider.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
