The DUP refusing to let Sinn Fein have First Minister means a December Assembly Election. Will the numbers change in a fresh Election?
What parties seats are vulnerable or who might make gains in any constituencies ??
They have form for using handouts from Westminster as a smokescreen for capitulation, Westminster has form for playing along.
Going by the DUP's ability to punch itself in the face, willingly, I imagine - at best - they'll get a totally-definite-pinky-promise from the Tories they'll give the DUP NI Executive more money, if they just go back to 'effin work.
It's said by many a smart-árse on newspaper websites, but has anyone tried just cancelling the pay-cheques of the MLAs? They're not working so shouldn't be paid; bet that'd get the DUP to return to Stormont pronto.
British Political parties have interfered in Irish affairs for centuries. But we are not talking about British politicians ( who incidentally have previously interfered in NI politics) we are talking about Irish people in Ireland . And I would say, all Irish people have every right to engage in political activity anywhere in Ireland.
But what evidence is there that politicians from Ireland did participate in the NI local elections? Can you point to any credible sources?
Gavin Robinson DUP yesterday.
so they are in fact then huffing. whinge until mammy gets them an icecream to keep them quiet
Wherein is the interference though? You keep saying it's "interference", and IIRC even drew parallels with Russians interference with American elections - which seems like a wild swing of equivalence between the open election doctoring that happened in the US & the supposed (it's still completely unconfirmed) issue of some RoI volunteers knocking on doors. It's not remotely comparable.
How and why would some guy form Cork handing out fliers be "interference" in the NI election? You don't even need to open your trap to do that so their origin would be unknown to those taking the leaflets.
I just showed you a party from what you define as a 'different state' campaigning here on behalf of FG and Labour. Was there 'outrage'?
I can't see any issue with people from either part of Ireland taking part in electoral activity in the other. This has happened pretty much since partition.
People from Britain also take part in electoral activity in NI, but I think not in the Republic. I don't think anybody took offence at their participation in electoral politics in NI, although their impact has mostly been negligible — the notable exception being Enoch Powell who after giving up a seat in Wolverhampton contested and won South Down, and held that seat for 13 years. There have been other instances where the NI Conservatives ran English candidates in NI seats, but their efforts were, um, not attended with much success. UKIP tried it as well, I think.
My optimistic take on the static unionist vote and the low turnout is that they are voters who are rejecting the DUP and all it stands for, but are not ready to vote Alliance yet. If they are won around to the Alliance, that will mark further progress towards normality in Northern Ireland, as the most significant long-term trend from this election is their move into third place.
Of course they may have Irish passports but as you well know, we have completely different civil administrations both north & south. We may live on the same island, but for all the wishful thinking, we are different states.
Therefore I ask you, would you welcome British political parties interfering in elections in this Republic. Like bloody hell would we, there'd be outrage.
What if you were a passport holding 'citizen' of Ireland Furze who has an right to be an Irish citizen?
Unionists have a right to be offended, but as Stephen Fry said, 'so what if you are offended?'
Did anyone say boo when this worked the other way?
Those Catholic Unionists are probably from the same town where those GAA-loving Catholics are also avoiding the Republic like the plague 'cos it's such an alien, hostile place to the simple folk of ... ahem, OWC. If you listened to this user and their straw fictions, the Catholic populous of NI doesn't vote nationalist/republican and are too busy painting their paving-stones.
Reality is not a strong suit of a certain demographic or age bracket of Unionism; not like the DUP doesn't constantly back that up with their words.
"Interference" is a charged word that I think is paints the issues as wildly more problematic than it is. The only reason Tories would ever canvas here within the scope of this discussion would be ... if there were a Tory Party in the Republic. Which, aside from being as likely as Germany's CDU opening a branch in Dublin, would be perfectly normal, legal and typical. I did say it wouldn't necessarily be a smart tactic to have outsiders waffle about local issues - but that'd be just as true for a Dublin FG member canvasing in Kerry; and this is all getting sidetracked by the obvious stunt being pulled by the DUP, noted scaremongers writ large.
And by all accounts, I have had the suspicion myself that McDonald and O'Neill aren't necessarily Best Friends Forever and there's more of a split between North and South than they'd ever admit. But that's another matter again.
I wonder if someone from the Republican side had made such a fool of themselves if you'd be so swift with the excuses or land in all guns blazing with your usual sense of outrage?
I could take a guess.
Quite a lot ( ? maybe majority) if 'citizens of NI' hold Irish passports. So clearly they do not see Ireland as a foreign state.
If I were a citizen of NI I'd resent party workers from the neighbouring state interfering in my election. Just as we in the south would be pretty pissed if the Tories or British Labour Party came over here and interfered in ours.
Peregrinus is made of tougher stuff than me. i found the article so offensive and filled with hate that iIgave up half way through . But you feel it is 'astute'.
To add to Peregrinus questions, jf, as you claim, many Catholics support the Union, why are the Unionist parties not canvassing their support? After all if you can convince the Catholic community in NI that their future is with the Union then all your political problems fade away.
But, could it possibly be, that those unionist parties are more wedded to sectarianism than they are to the union. Perhaps a Unionist party led and made up of Catholics would be too much for those staunch Orange men.
Again you blame somebody else when a Unionist messes up.
I didn't notice anything particularly dishevelled about him much as I didn't notice anything similar in the two jackets Mary Lou and MoN were wearing in the clip you said they were puppet 'poster girls' for the backroom boys of the 'RA.
Again and again we see Unionists default to this kind of rethoric,
that it is all a conspiracy of the Shinners/'RA,
that Unionism is the 'victim' of Vatican/Dublin/Shinner/RA plots (add the EU and Catholic America to that list too),
that they are being deliberately outbred by Catholics having families,
that they need more than a democratic vote of the electorate,
that Unionists have to give and Nationalists have to get etc etc etc .
Danny's comments were not an abberation because he was tired, they are part of a trend.
Pretty much agree with all you say. Also agree that ordinary nationalist are not moving to support those who eulogise the sectarian conflict, but rather sf have managed to dress up their sectarianism in nice clothes
but yes you are correct on all counts.
It's an extraordinarily mean-spirited article when it comes to understanding nationalism or republicanism, to an offensive degree. But the problem there is not so much the offence as the fact that the writer's preconceptions prevent him from coming up with any kind of useful or realistic analysis of the situation of nationalism.
He is, as you say, slightly more astute when it comes to analysing the situation of unionism. But only slightly.
The most significant thing in this election is the static unionist vote which — unionists will devoutly hope, but I think they will be right — is due to a low turnout. Low turnout (same number of unionists, but a lower proportion of them voting) is not so bad as a declining number of unionists. But it's still bad. The thought that there are more unionist votes out there to be won is not very consoling if you are unable to win them. Unionism badly needs a strategy to tap what he calls the "untapped well of potential support". But, despite having identified the need for such a strategy, the author conspicuously fails to come up with any suggestion as to what it might be.
And this, I suggest, is because, while he's happy to mutter darkly about "uncomfortable truths about the values and priorities of members of the communities which support [Sinn Fein]" he's not prepared to look at why the DUP is hoovering up the votes of unionists who vote, and at why other unionists don't vote. He talks about "nationalism’s inherent thirst for the stronger stuff. Who wants fluffy, social democratic language about baby steps towards an Ireland of equals when you can have the full-fat alternative?". This is ignorant and offensive, but it at least betrays a critical attitude which he badly needs to apply to unionism. Why is political unionism increasingly repellent, even to unionists? Why is unionism unable to offer a positive, confident vision of the union? And what would have to change before unionism could do that?
Anyone can watch that clip for themselves and decide is Danny a disheveled, unslept, broken individual with ptsd or is he a supremacist. To bandy the term supremacist at a decent man like Danny who has worked for all in south Armagh bandit country, all his adult life, is a bit much. Put that title where it belongs in south Armagh. He is in the condition he is due to the south Armagh supremacists
Mod: We are not discussing all of that in this thread.
Very astute take on things
Unionist messes up and it's somebody else's fault again.
If you couple Danny's comments with Ian Paisley's attempts to require a supermajority or with the whinging about Catholics having families, or the historical attempts to gerrymander Unionist majorities, it isn't hard to see the resurfacing of supremacy traits in what he said.
I believe they will be given what you will call a fig leaf, but I think it will be enough. There are strong vibes coming from Westminster that when labour get in at next election they will begin a pretty swift journey back into EU. That will do a Ui cause serious damage.
I did see it and I completely disagree with him (Danny Kennedy). I have always held Danny in very high esteem for his honesty and integrity. He had not been to bed the night before and has had an awfull 40 years at the hands of the Ira and sf while living in south Armagh. I guess it was a mix of no sleep,extreme disappointment that his moderate uup had lost more ground to the dup and TUV, and ptsd all combining in a perfect storm. Not his best moment
what can they get out of negotiations btw? the border will remain in the sea. it wont be back on land. sure they arent just huffing that they're now in the minority and dont have a first minister anymore? Thats what it looks like.
the gfa agreement gave us peace. as far as I remember the dup werent into the idea at the time. Funny how its republicans bad for fighting back and then republicans bad for pursing peace. Then again - did you watch that video of yer man complaining that unionists were being left without representation because they didnt win seats etc - which was the fault of SF. None so blind as those who dont see. still knee deep in blaming the other side rather than taking responsibility and trying to get votes outside of unionism.
Probably has kids in school, other commitments etc. I don’t know. I do know he said commuting would ‘not be as good’ as living here in what you call the ‘sectarian south’.
So do you think he can’t afford to move from Uk to roi. think about what you are saying. Remember he is a comedian
I have moved my position recently. I cannot deny supporting their stance of staying out but I think it will soon be time to go back. They need to get a little more out of negotiations and then they must do the shinner trick ie go back in portraying victory. That’s what they need to learn from sf. Eg sf sold out on most of their past promises and principals with gfa but they portrayed it as a victory.
so yes I think it will be back in autumn
