It's almost as if people are forgetting why Germany's not a military powerhouse in the aftermath of WWII, its disarmament and being split in two. It was quite deliberately made dependent on US, UK, French and NATO defences.
Can you imagine anyone thinking that Germany rearming and becoming a significant military power say in the 1960s would have been in anyway acceptable? Not to mention the Cold War implications and the fact that Germany was split in two.
Building up as a military power is also just something that is probably an anathema to most modern Germans. They have, quite understandably, a fairly serious national revolution to war and a sense of trying to solve things non militarily. It's probably wildly over optimistic in this situation, but there's very little point in haranguing present day Germany for not being a military superpower when it's just not one by design and due to its history.
As for Ireland, it effectively has no military. Our neutrality stance was quite obviously a post independence issue with the UK. We were only 17 years independent, and in the middle of the 'Economic War' when WWII broke out, and there was probably a significant concern that we could lose independence. Also, there was an entirely understandable animosity towards and lack of trust in the UK and British Empire as it then was. So, a pragmatic neutrality, which in reality was not very neutral, when you look at how allied pilots etc were just quietly returned while German POWs were interned for the duration of the war. Also when you look at how intelligence sharing and various supports happened, just without much publicity.
That pragmatic neutrality morphed into something more of a philosophical position by the 1950s and became very much baked in by the 1960s when you start to see Ireland taking part in UN peace keeping missions and so on.
I think though, we do have an issue with not really knowing what we mean by neutrality. We aren't neutral in the Ukraine conflict. There's nothing ambiguous about that. We've been extremely condemnatory of Russia while on the UN security council, we've taken severe sanctions against Russia economically and diplomatically and so on and Russia lists us as a hostile country from their point of view. All you could really describe Ireland's position as is a form of military passivism. Again, it's a bit optimistic to put it mildly in the current situation as there's no way that this is going to be solved diplomatically. While there's no choice but to fight back hard, I also don't really see this being resolved militarily either. It's turning into some kind of War of Attrition. Realistically, it will probably end when Putin's regime implodes, and that's probably going to happen at some point.
As for what military aid we could supply, it seems extremely limited given we've probably one of the least resourced militaries in Europe.
I don't agree with our stance on this. I think we could do more militarily and I think we need to have a proper debate about what exactly our neutrality means, because I really don't think it adds up anymore and we clearly are not neutral.
Our aid contribution, most of which is refugee support could probably be valued at about €3 billion at this stage, which is not insignificant. We're hosting over 70,000 people at the moment.
As for the conspiracy theory that the Russians have some dirt on the HSE and that's preventing the Irish Government moving. That's utter la la land stuff. If they release the patient info, they release it. It was assumed they would anyway. The HSE itself also had utterly abysmal IT and we know that and it's where the focus has mainly gone. There's a massive budget now for upgrading their systems, something that should have happened all along anyway. However, I think the notion we're being blackmailed is really pie in the sky stuff and also assume that the Irish Government is some kind of super-leak proof, all powerful executive presidency - it's a multiparty coalition that leaks like a sieve. It would struggle to even begin to contemplate engaging in a conspiracy that complex!
It also assumes that you could embarrass the public health systems here by showing them to be incompetent at managing things. It would be like a shocking revelation that liquid water is wet.
I can imagine the Russians standing up at the UN and telling us they haven't given permission for us to send anything
Soledar- over 1000 orcs killed so far and fighting is still ongoing
When push comes to shove though Wibbs, our neutrality is a sham. We hide behind the skirts of the Brits and the Yanks and hope that no one would notice us if conflict came this direction. Whether that policy will work if needed is questionable, if needs must we might be allowed to go as collateral damage.
We should be honest about this. Individuals have been honest in the past, WW2 saw many Irishmen and women sign up in Allied forces and put their lives on the line. I certainly have relatives who did just that and I'd reckon there are a great many other Irish families likewise.
Asking Irish people about whether they think we should be neutral is in the same league as the large numbers who profess to be able to speak Irish or those who believe we are the greatest craic on earth etc. Wishful thinking.
If enough people keep predicting Putin's demise for long enough, I guess the law of averages says someone will get it right eventually.
Yes I disagree with the nice treaty votes ,if I remember correctly neutrality was low on the priority list.
But the important thing is we are only neutral in policy ,that can change from one government to another.
And for the German military why should they have heavily invested in their protection when they have several hundred thousand US soldiers, aircraft,tanks and other military equipment to defend them.
So, "only" 50% voted to repeal the 8th. You left out that 1.5 million voted in the second Nice referendum and it passed and contained the clause about our neutrality. Do you disagree with those votes?
Show me one poll or indication that the Irish electorate want to drop Ireland's militay neutrality. Good luck with that.
Tanks are significantly more complex than trucks JM. Fire control systems, IR sights, never mind all the moving parts of the gun and loading stuff. Though it looks really bad for Germany if their fleet is actually in that state. It wouldn't surprise me though. I've known a few Germans over the years of different generations and a fair number were ex German military and they told me while some areas were top notch, airforce, special forces and the like in the general military it was often a complete shambles full of lifers racking up years for a pension. One older lad I know who was in the army in the 80's said they were lucky WW3 didn't start. There's also a fair sized element of nazi guilt stuff drummed into them for generations. They seem to have a weird relationship with their military.
No it doesn't.
Again barely 900,000 people voted in the original nice treaty,
30% of the population
Time's have changed along with the population,
We are only neutral in government policy
How many were polled for the Times? I don't know. The rest stands.
Not what I asked.
Nice treaty barely a quarter of the population actually voted in yhe the first one ,so if it was so important how come so many didn't bother their holes to vote.
Times have changed and it's time for a rethink,
We didn't need a referendum to send troops off to the Eu battlegroups
Which begs the question re tanks needing repairs. How the hell can that be ? Surely the German's keeps their equipment up to date??? Serviced and ready for action? I once saw a donation of German ex-military 4 x 4 all wheel drive trucks. They were maybe 15 years old, and taken from storage, and with very small mileage. They worked like dream. I can't see them letting equipment like tanks deteriote to the stage that they need major overhauls.
There's still fighting going on
Poll after poll down the years has shown majority support for our military neutrality. The Treaty of Nice was rejected the first time by the Irish electorate and a large part of that was the threat to our military neutrality and the treaty was changed to reflect that Irish opposition.
Oh dear,it does seem like the orcs have managed it!
So far putin has apparently survived cancer, parkinsons and lord knows what else. There's also long been talk of him getting ousted and he's still there. Oh I suspect his days are very much numbered, the number is the question. If he dropped dead tomorrrow from sudden window exposure, that's when things could get interesting. The various factions and their personal armies would likely leave Ukraine as the dead loss it is to cement their power in Moscow, so good for Ukraine. Warmongeing muppets fighting for the crown could get ugly really quickly. Hopefully internally.
Well done, touché.
@Wibbs As for your calls for Irish neutrality to be dropped? Try asking the Irish people and get back to me. Two thirds want no change, so that's currently a non runner.
How many readers of the times were polled .
We are only neutral in government policy.
If the government chose to send weapons to Ukraine then they can .
Ukraine has the highest incidence of HIV in Europe. Higher than Russia. Though not by much. Flip a coin.
The end of Putin is near... just a matter of time before Russian power brokers decide on who to replace their maniacal president with.
Good man the Dan [Rice] is still the Ukraine armed forces' no1 adviser.
Once Putin is 'gone', providing that baldie guy who runs Wagner follows suit, I suspect the next Russian president will be certainly a nicer guy to deal with.
But the end of his reign is near anyhow because the elites are now not happy with him.
They used to like him, he used to make them all rich. Now Putin is becoming a problem, but they don't know how to get rid of him. But something is definitely cooking.
This is a stupid argument about neutrality. It barely deserves the description.
For a start, outside of a few gobshítes Arsebook and the like including Russian supporters and though the government and vaious NGO's are trying to paint it differently to cover their own arses, the "bitching" is far more about non Ukrainian "refugees". What protests have occurred have specifically stated their issues are those being shipped into working class areas of Dublin et al are NOT Ukrainians. What "bitching" that has happened around Ukrainians specifically was the lack of caps on their numbers.
We were among the first not on their borders to welcome Ukrainian refugees and welcomed 70k in during the worst housing crisis in the history of the state, never mind a huge chunk of our population on medical waiting lists and unlike the UK and others without any need for visas or any of that and provide far more for them than anyone else. Germany gives them, after checks, per month what we do in a week. So g'way to feck with your moaning about what we have or haven't done. We've done quite a bit thanks very much.
As for your calls for Irish neutrality to be dropped? Try asking the Irish people and get back to me. Two thirds want no change, so that's currently a non runner.
As for your tinfoil hat stuff about the HSE hack? That happened before this Russian invasion when we were seen as a "friendly nation". If their spying ops from their embassy are so important to them, we'd be hardly high on the list of places to attack would we(on that score the embassy "outrage" may well have been true)? It was far more likely to be a simple moneygrab, rather than any official Russian attack. Now if it had happened this year it would have legs, but it didn't. Oh and Irish health records were released online.
You're all revved up like too many on this thread seeing reds under the bed everywhere. It reaches utterly ridiculous proportions at times.
Good luck with either of them reciprocating that sentiment; you'd only have a tiny one in sixty chance of getting AIDS from the wrong one.
On a lighter note for a moment if I may...........but I'd bang both of them to be honest !.....I'll get my coat.....
At least 12 months for rheinmetall to deliver tanks to Ukraine ,and they only have 22 lepoard 2s .
But how many does the German army have,are they going to tell the 5 others countries they have to wait 12 + months to deliver their tanks to Ukraine
I actually saw this interview posted on TikTok and never realised it was your good self.
Very informative interview, well done sir !
Cute... in the Irish sense.
"WIZARD SPIDER pledged support to the Russian government and threatened critical infrastructure organizations of countries perceived to carry out cyberattacks or war against the Russian government.[39] They later revised this pledge and threatened to retaliate against perceived attacks against the Russian people."
In other words, Wizard Spider is likely a RU FSB/GRU run op. It is they who hacked the HSE and then dropped their demands after the RU embassy and RU government pretended outrage. So a demand for €18m just went away like that, with no quid pro quo?
Australia's Medicare was similarly hacked. Australia didn't play ball and the health records of Australians were released.
The RU governemnt intervened to ireland's benefit out of the goodness of their black rotten heart - Pull the other one.
I read that a poll in Germany had 70% in favour of sending tanks. Scholz must have some interesting sources of motivation for continuing his stance in opposition to that of the German public.
As Wibbs said, Ireland are certainly not neutral in this war (so quotes on the dark side of neutrality do not fully apply to us here). Russia definitely has our card marked as a hostile state.
There's not very much military aid Ireland can give (guns, ammunition, anti-tank rpg-like weapons seem to be what is mentioned), but it is quite a rich country and that is mainly how we can help, apart from the sheltering of refugees.
However I would agree with you scaled up, the Irish policy would be an utter disaster for Ukraine (and people here would be castigating larger European countries over it - they already do it on thread as is anyway and say hysterical nonsense like they are "allied with Putin" etc because they are not giving enough or powerful enough weapons!). IMO the refusal to allow Irish euros (e.g. via the EU) to be dirtied up somehow by paying for some weapons for Ukraine is just a cop out/a moral failing.
However would judge that is position most of the Irish public are happy with (e.g. even see way you have been attacked quite a bit now for raising this point), and we are a democracy. The govt. really has (as far as I can see?) no strong mandate to change policy and start buying weapons for Ukraine or sending any of our own stock.
In total Australia has given A$225 million in military aid and A$65 million in humanitarian aid
Ukraine at least appears to be appreciative, and they are the only ones that matter.
They even made a video in appreciation. Have they made a video thanking Switzerland?
That isn't the only video they made thanking Australia:
That was from just 40 Bushmasters sent, the total has currently climbed to 90.
Four Autralians have died fighting for ukraine - how many Swiss? To put that in context - 6 brave Poles have died. So relative to population, it's about the same.
Switzerland is in Europe, and one reads about how Switzerland upholds European values, and yet Australia, on the other side of the planet, has provided about the same amount of aid - and far more useful aid it has been - than Switzerland, in terms of percentage of GDP.
So nice try at shaming me, but it's failed. I would dearly like Australia to do more, such as send those M1A1 tanks that were requested by the Ukrinian amabassador to Australia a couple of days ago.
Neutral assistance is nice, but it's not as good as offensive military assistance; how's that truism go - 'an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.'
If all you send is bandages, you can expect a near infinite need for bandages - send weapons, and there is at least a good chance you won't need so many bandages. Hosting refugees is admirable, but send weapons, and there might not be as many refugees needing hosting.
Unfortunately seems to be in error. Various sources scrubbing the story with the British MOD stating the information was incorrect. Pity.
Maybe the fact it was reported is an indication someone raised the idea of it behind a closed meeting.
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