Exactly,NATO expansion,nazis,bio labs etc etc is all part of Russias disinformation and propaganda
Putins invasion of Georgia,Moldova and Ukraine was planned for many years and at the right time
Maybe you should ask the Brits who were caught up in the Blitz. What would they have preferred, to sit there and let the Luftwaffe attack without much restraint. Or have an air force to help defend the airspace??
No i suggest 60% failure rate of the 30% you mentioned
And alot of the warheads needs to be maintained more than the missiles,and some are even used in nuclear powerplants and ships,submarines etc.
Would you fire a armed nuclear missile knowing it could come in return?I sure wouldnt
And that link you sent i wouldnt trust at all,sorry
That looks like a misinformation and propaganda site
Hmm... not convinced by your bona fides. But each to their own.
I know it's not so optimistic JM, but I'm still running with my take of months ago that it'll likely end up with Russia keeping Donbas, currently Crimea is so far off the table it's in the next room, if not next door. The bit that's still up in the air is the landbridge between them. Now I certainly didn't imagine how quickly the Russians would be routed in Kharkiv and Kherson(never mind Kyiv and elsewhere in the north east), but even that IMHO reinforces my early position.
I think the Russians are playing for the same outcome. They know unless Ukraine gives up and so does NATO they can't take the country and pulling back/running like hell to reinforce the bits they're likely to keep and/or will be bargaining chips is their overal strategy. I'll bet now that this promised "300,000 Russian troops" coming in will be reinforcements for those areas, not anything like a force to push forward. It doesn't really matter if they're half trained oulfellas, reinforcing a position requires a lot less than gaining ground and more about meat puppets behind walls and trenches. IMHO they're so crazily hellbent on getting Bahkmut because they want to keep it down the line, rather than its actual strategic value for another push forward.
Hitting civilian structures and civilians would also play into this strategy. It's nada to do with moving forward and taking more of Ukraine, because that's a busted flush. It's to try and speed up the likelihood of "talks". Then putin can claim he never wanted Ukraine anyway, that was a trick, that he has "defeated NATO", "denatzified" Donbas, kept Crimea and created a land bridge between them for the Glorious Russian Empire.
Now Ukrainians have buggered his plans from the start so they could do it again, but IMHO trying to take back the land bridge to the coast would be like Bahkmut times eleventy over hundreds of miles against a dug in and reinforcing enemy. NATO forces could do it in a month, if not less, but not without casualities, because as we've seen Russia gives two fecks about their human wave bulletstoppers and that's off the table anyway because of MAD and political reasons too. There are enough moaning about supplying weapons to Ukraine, even though it's a bargain to bugger Russia, that would ramp up considerably if flag draped coffins were coming back to NATO airfields.
That still leaves about 140 warheads reaching their targets (of their land based missile forces, I haven't included the submarine launched stuff). Total deployed forces, including SLBM capability, is 524 missiles with 1461 warheads. Allowing for your (pessimistic) success ratio (12%) thats 175 warheads hitting their targets. Total stockpile of their nukes is c6000. This would allow for warheads that you suggest are in storage, under maintenance, other uses etc.
Why would they not? They are the ones who are suffering under Ruzzian brutality. Ruzzian POW's are treated humanely by Ukrainian military in accordance with IHL, but the same cannot be said about Ukrainians captured by the Ruzzians, on the contrary, in fact. But if any Family who had lost members or suffered under Ruzzian occupation got their hands on Ruzzian's, the same humanity could not be guaranteed. And who could blame them? I'm pretty sure that every time its shown on TV, Internet etc. where a Ruzzian tank, fuel depot, or group of Ruzzian soldiers being destroyed by Ukrainian forces, a big cheer goes up. Seeing Moscow buildings being bombed would cause even greater celebrations. You can imagine the amount of suffering it takes to destroy the natural humanity in people, to make them behave like this. But this is what Ruzzia has done to the Ukrainian People. Slava Ukraine.
If you compare the Russian budget for upgrading and maintaining their nuclear arsenals,and Russia have more than US,you will understand why there is something not right.
Russia spends 10% of what US have in their budget,that doesnt add up.
And with Russias corruption and state of the rest of their military,i am still doubting the condition of Russias nuclear weapons.
And if you compare it with UKs nuclear upgrades,it gets even more obvious.
Poor analogy. Britain had their own excellent capabilities, including an airforce to boot. The radar equipped Bristol Beaufighter was up and running as early as November 1940 for example.
Yes, and this is well understood by military planners in the west, EU, UK US etc. And the only way to prevent this is to stop Putin here and now. They badly need to ramp up weaponry and other military equipment, enough to finish this ASAP, while Putin is on the back foot, and not give him the chance to regroup.
Thats up to you mate. I only post what I honestly believe. (like us all I hope).
As Wibbs says above, MAD still applies, and using Sailorman1451's suggested 12% reliability ratio thats 175 warheads hitting US & other Western targets. Distastrous IMO. Of course as you say Russia would be ash too.
President Zelensky: I have instructed our Ambassador to the UN to request an urgent meeting of UNSC following today's Russian strikes. Murder of civilians, ruining of civilian infrastructure are acts of terror. Ukraine keeps demanding a resolute response of international community to these crimes
Banging his head against a wall dealing with the UN,
He needs long range weapons
yawn, this isnt ww2.
Russia and NATO are both nuclear powers, also to stick with your outdated analogy: Ukraine have an air force of their own.
long range weapons to hit what?
Barely they have a few operational aircraft,but hardly enough to make any real difference in a full scale war ,they do have some successes, limited in every way though
Military bases , airfields, power grids , railway hubs , ports
Any sign of those reports of NASAMs blowing up buildings in Ukraine?
Russian missile launchers,command and control,bridges,navy vessels,airfields,ammo depots etc etc
I understand you chose an arbitrary 30% for the sake of the example, so there's nothing to be gained from debating whether that should be higher or lower. However if you assume a 70% failure rate of components, then you have to bear in mind that a 70% failure rate of missiles is a 100% failure rate of all warheads they are delivering. So there are only 354 warheads getting to 96 targets and of those warheads, only 30% will work. Which is 106 warheads.
@timmyntc could you post your source about the missiles? If it's not been reported yet I'd be interested to see where it has been discussed at least and what proof it is being based off.
Putins favorite turd polisher speaking
This might make a nice Christmas present for someone, donate and have a message sent directly to Russian forces in Ukraine express delivery
@correct horse battery staple Armenia throwing a strop at the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) meeting with Russia was because when Azerbaijan were stirring the pot couple of months back Russia basically said we can't help you right now. Alas it seems Armenia can't afford to be too picky with allies.
True, hadn’t thought of that in all fairness. Plus the MIRV v the non MIRV factor as well. Lose an SS-18 in flight and thats 10 potential warheads scratched off. So using your 106 figure, that still a sh*tload of potential destruction. I’d rather not go there…….
Russian MoD briefing claims that no strikes were carried out within the city limits of Kiev
The ones in the past only being reported now are here https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/24/world/europe/ukraine-american-missile.html
“Your terrorist homeland”. Yawn. Give it a rest theres a good lad and lets try to have a decent discussion.
CSTO summit was ended unexpectedly the reaction of Putin throwing the pen on the table and Lukashenko hands out and mouth open.
But you new all was not well when you look at the colour of the folders on the table. ;-)
Lol Russia says .
Actually what you claimed and whats in that tweet is completely different,
Of course they will be debris from an air defense missles after they hit their intended targets, like hello obviously
Regards the Land bridge, Ukraine doesn't need to take the full length of it. They just need to take a nanometre the width of the landbridge that Russia cannot pass. That leaves Crimea in a shít ton of trouble i.e. unsustainable.
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