It's all falling apart alarmingly fast for Boris Johnson across the water. How long you reckon he has left as British Prime Minister? Hours surely?
How many parties are they talking about now? I've lost count.
Threadbanned users
Packrat
Monopoli
All those are true but why would Britain join the EU now? Why would the EU have them?
Both have enough problems of their own and both sides will only make the others problem worse.
...because brexit will reduce the UK's economy by around 4% in the long term.
An intriguing aspect of all this is that Brexit has been exposed as a disastrous failure. It's not the case that they can say "Yes, nearly everything is going pear shaped but at least Brexit has turned out well for us". The thing has failed calamitously.
I can't stand Boris, can't stand Truss , brilliant day - The Tories thankfully are like Spitting Image fantasy, the demise started with Cameron initiating Brexit , in comparison to Truss , Theresa May looks good .
4% isn't that much in the greater scheme of things though painful as it is short term, long term its a blip. Germany is facing a 1% contraction and a 10% fall via inflation. That's frightening and going to impact our future more than Brexit.
If it is one year and bounce back, its doable, unfortunately it looks like next year is going to be the same inflation wise.
The whole world told them Brexit was a monumentally stupid idea and of course its turned out that way but if they had the referendum again in the morning it would still be voted in.
The EU would never let them back in unless they first abandoned FPTP for PR and instead of a two party system it was a 5-6 party one and even at that they would want to see years of stability Theres no way the EU could risk 30% of the Tory party and the tabloid media trying to reef them back out of the EU all over again from the very get go. So while the UK remains a two party system allowing them to rejoin would be a fundamental risk to the EU in case lightening strikes twice and with FPTP the conditions would still be there for it to happen.
Even if the UK did adopt PR and extremist Tory voices got marginalised with 26 EU members and 26 vetoes at play the horse trading would be epic I doubt English politicians or the general public would have the stomach for watching the French getting more fishing rights or the Greeks getting their Elgin marbles back or the UK being forced to join the euro. They just wouldnt be able to accept the cost it would come at.
Its so great to see the Tory party self imploding
How many leaderships changes does it take before they have to declare a GE
Yes but thats an additional 4% on top of the inflationary contraction - which appears to be significantly worse in the UK than most parts of Europe.
I actually think that the 4% figure is a significant underestimate of the impact of brexit since most small to medium businesses have all but left the EU market due to regulatory barriers.
Legally, if they can convince the King that the new candidate has the support of the house, they could go through every MP and back again, ad infinitum
Not forgetting that the arrangement that the UK operated within the EU before would be out of the question now. They negotiated rebates on the basis that they barred the EU from making direct regional development payments to minimize interference in British politics. That took decades to negotiate and would never be offered again.
The UK doesnt need to rejoin. It’d would take too much political energy from both sides, and further heighten division in the UK. There are more important things for each side to be focussing on. We just need to drop all barriers, on both sides, and align regulations and standards as closely as domestic politics allow. Labour will hopefully do that. The light, full alignment brexit that was imagined by some.
How can that happen when Tory policy is to undercut EU regulations. The EU would never enter into agreements which they fully expected the UK to renege on at some point in the future, and the UK would never accept been tied to EU regulations in order to access barrier free markets. One of the main objective of Brexit was free free the UK from the European court of justice and any trade deal of the type suggested would be foundational on that court been the ultimate arbitor.
It is the equivalent of a £32bn cost per annum, which is not insignificant. in modern parlance it's certainly "anti-growth".
It was an OBR forecast from October 2021, so it may well be out of date now.
The long term collapse of the Tory party is a prerequisite to the EU opening up negotiations to allow the Uk back to the table
They burned so many bridges and are having their meltdown so publicly that they have lost all political capital in the serious parts of the EU.
If the Conservatives are still in the mix politically it means they're not ready to re-integrate
I think the UK is heading to IMF territory.
Will say this once again, if we are ever faced with the prospect of an equivalent simpleton like Helen McEntee running the country it must be stopped at all costs.
The damage Truss has done within a month...
The UK will not go back into the EU for at least a generation. It was years to get out. It’ll be even longer to get back in and the policy and diplomatic and administrative resources would sideline any other policy activity, just like it did for the last few years with brexit
i voted remain but I would not support the start of any meaningful rejoining process for a long time
Right now I think there are a fair few in Westminster and in the City who would bite your hand off for only a 4% reduction.
Also brexit meant different things to different people. You are referring to the hardline brexit, which was not everyone. Many people who voted leave wanted continue close alignment, customs union etc. There is no reason why that kind of brexit cannot now be the objective
It's not nothing. It's not fun, it's going to be rough, brutal even but it is hardly going to be exceptional in European terms.
That's not because Britain have done something well, it's just that the problems facing the Eurozone are existential crisis issues.
It would take something monumental and unexpected for the EU to consider that a risk worth taking. Ultimately all the EU members take a slice of the trade that the British lost so it would have to be some existential strategic move that forced the EU to open up negotiations.
I would genuinely think that the EU will want to see the British suffer for the damage they have done to the EU.
Nobody wanted close alignment. Brexit meant leaving the single market. Why would you vote for it and remain in it as a rule taker? The guff about staying in while having the ability to torch EU rules was Vote Leave and Leave.EU propaganda. Nothing more.
Actually the whole World did not tell them that unfortunately. If there had of been a confident sane President like Obama or Clinton or Biden in charge of the USA maybe they would have but no that buffoon Trump and his cronies were/was there and he supported the UK doing Brexit.
Brexit occurred before Trump assumed the presidency. Obama was asked to intervene by David Cameron. It did not go well.
Leave Helen McEntee alone.
She is doing a great job and she would make a great Taioseach.
For A minute I thought you were going to say something intelligent like
If we are ever faced with the prospect of leaving the EU maybe we will look at the mess across the water and think otherwise and against it as its bad for them but it woukd be a lot worse for us if we ever did leave it.
Id the UK proposed a customs union the EU would bite their hand off
If you asked Trump what Bexit was about he wouldn't get past two sentences and I'm being generous here.
I don't know how much of an influence he had on Brexit been voted for in the UK.He was seen as an imbecile by the vast majority in the UK just like the rest of the world.Its a pity they couldn't have applied the same logic to Bojo and they might not be the laughing stock there are now.
but that’s the point isn’t it. Many people believed that we could stay closer than what was the end result. Customs union was always an option in some voters heads, even if it was not the intention of those pushing the brexit agenda. There will be appetite in the UK for closer union. Starting with something akin to Theresa May’s proposal
wouldn’t happen for a while. You’re probably talking in a 2nd labour term, having prepared the groundwork
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w7.vanillicon.com/v2/7eb61b90d43b6a9f2815c2a58d0f497f.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://wf.vanillicon.com/v2/f6ec3b6ae14cc6cd4a0e3a3374e0ef7b.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w0.vanillicon.com/v2/07abd39dc4f0afde3c391afc78cc920e.svg)
