One of those genius Bush presidents ordered the unilateral destruction of the US arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons, while the Orcs kept theirs, so The US is restricted to big nuclear bangs.
Agreed,
But by the same token, surely they knew that Ukraine would not just roll over and give up. And their, under equipped and poorly trained army would not be able to beat a well trained Ukrainian Army (They've been prepping for this since 2014) that is being backed by the West.
Sabre-rattling in the Bering Sea by the Russians and Chinese?
https://news.sky.com/story/chinese-and-russian-warships-ships-spotted-off-alaskan-island-12706095?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
And all they have to do is secure the gates of the Kremlin with a few hundred troops and say 'Putty come out, we want to have a word with you.'
At least they aren't being ostriches.
Seems like everyone is getting their chess pieces in place.
I do wonder if the mobilization is not actually for Ukraine at all. Because, without proper training and equipment, it's somewhat of a pointless exercise really. So I wonder if the real reason is to have an army ready for martial law at home, or a future war, either of which could be needed soon. Some folks here have been worrying about a nuclear strike. I don't see that happening in the short term; seems the threat of a strike is just as effective a bargaining tool for Russia than an actual strike, and with far less risk for them. So perhaps their plan is to annex those regions, then continue to threaten a nuclear strike but with increasing fervor and brinkmanship until Ukraine/the west backs down. Ordinary Russian's themselves will be increasingly nervous under that brinkmanship- martial law could be needed to keep order (a mobilization helps for that). Alternatively, the brinkmanship goes too far, and a bigger engagement with the West happens. A Russian mobilization is certainly needed for that.
Anyway, it's all very unsettling. But Russia still has an out here- regime change. Their collective consciousness however does not think that's possible right now. Years of oppression has thought them that suffering for the greater glory without objection is the Russian way. The best we can hope for in the near term is that these mobilization protests grow to an unstoppable force. On this count, I will be rooting for the ordinary Russians brave enough to standup when their country (and the world) needs them the most.
Has anyone read anything decent on how the weather is going to affect the war over the coming months?
Going by this video, offensive operations are going to be very hard.
I'd suspect Conscripts be sent to secure captured territory and control civilians in occupied zones while what remains of the professional Russian army reorganises and sent to the front.
Ukrainian military have liberated Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi town on the east bank of Oskil river, - head of regional military-civilian administration
"the east of the Oskil river is ours and west is yours" plan is not working for Russia
Notable that there are no air assets over or around the area at the moment. Transponders inactive?
The smallest of the US big bangs on one of Putins holiday homes would make the point. Actual destruction of stuff that is useful to destroy can be done without nuclear... But they have to use nuclear if Russia does, even if more is destroyed conventionally.
How big would the US small nuclear bombs be?
Russia did it, I think. The US has no further reason to, given the Russians stopped supplying and the Germans are weaning themselves off Russia.
The US threatened to stop Nordstream 2 supplying Europe back in February, I think it was. No specifics were given as to how they would stop it going ahead.
"If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again," Biden said. "Then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-scholz-announce-united-approach-to-deterring-russian-aggression
Expect all gas pipelines out of Norway, to the UK and Europe, to also fail mysteriously. Possibly some fibre cables will be severed also. I think the Nordstream sabotage is an open threat. Europe is going to absolutely freeze this winter. Russia has cut it's own supplies and will now cut everyone elses gas supplies as well.
It's a perfect mechanism for them because they so love the implausible, plausible deniability game, such as when one of their BUKs operated by their little green men, shoots down a civillian airliner full of westerners.
Agreed. There is a mass repositioning of air assets going on at the moment.
My Brother lives in Fairford and keeps me up to date on movements. B-52, B1's and, very interestingly 2 x B2's ( in their humidity/ temperature controlled shelters ( the large white ones, if anyone has passed the airfield recently) are all doing engine runs and look to be in a state of preparedness.
He also tells me that U2 flights are almost daily out of there, heading East. These would never have their transponders active.
I didn't like to remind him of the dangers of living in proximity to RAF Fairford, should things go South. I'm sure he's well aware.
I have stocked up on whiskey with all this nuclear bomb apocalypse talk and champagne in case of putins death/removal. That is the scope of my chess moves/pieces/strategy.
We did, Putin spat in the West's face. The West magnanimoulsly held off putting the the boot in. I believe the West even leant the scumbags some money.
Putin started off with a bit of democracy, allowed western investment, then did a complete 180° and retreated back to isolationism, authoritarianism, sham democracy dictatorship and started trying to rebuild the soviet union.
Also, I've tracked a number of German C-17 flights into Estonian over a number of hours. They're moving something.
There is a Turkish AWACS operating in the area at the moment, plus two RAF refuelling aircraft over the Baltics, where the Amphibious Task Force is just outside the Kaliningrad Economic Zone. ( position given away by the short Seahawk flights that appear now and again.
There is no issue with responding conventionally to Russian nuclear weapons use because a nuclear response hasn't been threatened.
The message (at present) is - "we don't actually need to use nuclear weapons, we can wipe out your military assets without".
This actually happened in the early years of the Putin presidency (2000 onwards) and the assumption was that he might move to being a peaceful coexister with western Europe and not give them any problems. He seemed to start changing in personality from around 2010 onwards though and by 2014 he was in full on 'unpleasant troublemaker' mode.
I guess the 22 years in power as President / PM have totally corrupted him and he has gone totally over to the dark side.
Renewables provided 34% of Irelands energy last year
Again, makes sense to do this.
The question is, does the west want to be caught on the hop like back in February?
The reality is, Putin needs to knows, should he proceed, what's waiting for him.
A fair point but I still think Russia is behind this. The US doesn't have an endless supply of LNG but I do admit they complained a lot about N1 and N2 over the years. Russia's collapsing economy plays into Putins hand as he continues to blame the world for everything that happened to Russia from here on. The new narrative from the Kremlin is Russia against the world. I dont think the money issue is on the top of Putin's list right now. Pressing Europe and hoping for a continued right-wing resurgence is what he is now looking to. Russia always plans for 5 years time, not necessary for this month. It's not beyond Russia to cap its gas and oil wells for a few years and wait for peak oil time.
he says stuff for cash
Russia's collapsing economy plays into Putins hand
..
It's not beyond Russia to cap its gas and oil wells for a few years and wait for peak oil time.
I'm sorry but that is totally delusional. Capping oil and gas wells is so expensive they would rather burn it off that do that. They might never reopen those wells if they do that. And they idea that Russia's faltering economy somehow plays well for Putin?? I think you're veering down the conspiracy theory route now, where everything that happens is somehow by design by the kremlin.
NS going kaput is not good for russia at all, it leaves Europe with no choice other than to support Ukraine now as there is no longer the gas infrastructure to bring things back to normal even if they wanted to.
You have to think from Russia's point of view, not yours.
Now I am getting confused. One article said the tactical nukes had been destroyed and another suggests new ones have been made - oh well.: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/28/us-nuclear-weapons-first-low-yield-warheads-roll-off-the-production-line
The US/ NATO certainly doesn't need to use nuclear weapons to destroy everything they want in Russia... But if Russia uses a nuclear weapon and the US then doesn't it would show them as weak as far as the likes of China are concerned.
True. The co-operation of the Russians and Chinese is a bit concerning though, unless it's just a bit of Kabuki to try the scare the west. I'd say it's the latter. I can imagine the scene in Beijing:
A: "What does Botox-Boy want now?"
B: "A joint fleet exercise off Alaska"
A. "Not a hope. Tell him his ship can join one of our ships in convoy for a few miles. Maybe that'll keep him happy for a bit."
There is always the French or UK weapons which are presumably smaller bangs if it's done under the banner of NATO rather than the US.
OK, Russia's POV:
We want to blackmail the EU with energy supplies so that they will stop supporting Ukraine with arms and drop sanctions on Russia.
If Nordstream is damaged we cannot supply enough energy to EU, so we can no longer blackmail the EU seeing as we have nothing to give if they stop supporting Ukraine.
How does this benefit them again?
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