Russia - threadbanned users in OP

One of those genius Bush presidents ordered the unilateral destruction of the US arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons, while the Orcs kept theirs, so The US is restricted to big nuclear bangs.

Sabre-rattling in the Bering Sea by the Russians and Chinese?

https://news.sky.com/story/chinese-and-russian-warships-ships-spotted-off-alaskan-island-12706095?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

At least they aren't being ostriches.

I do wonder if the mobilization is not actually for Ukraine at all. Because, without proper training and equipment, it's somewhat of a pointless exercise really. So I wonder if the real reason is to have an army ready for martial law at home, or a future war, either of which could be needed soon. Some folks here have been worrying about a nuclear strike. I don't see that happening in the short term; seems the threat of a strike is just as effective a bargaining tool for Russia than an actual strike, and with far less risk for them. So perhaps their plan is to annex those regions, then continue to threaten a nuclear strike but with increasing fervor and brinkmanship until Ukraine/the west backs down. Ordinary Russian's themselves will be increasingly nervous under that brinkmanship- martial law could be needed to keep order (a mobilization helps for that). Alternatively, the brinkmanship goes too far, and a bigger engagement with the West happens. A Russian mobilization is certainly needed for that.

Anyway, it's all very unsettling. But Russia still has an out here- regime change. Their collective consciousness however does not think that's possible right now. Years of oppression has thought them that suffering for the greater glory without objection is the Russian way. The best we can hope for in the near term is that these mobilization protests grow to an unstoppable force. On this count, I will be rooting for the ordinary Russians brave enough to standup when their country (and the world) needs them the most.

I'd suspect Conscripts be sent to secure captured territory and control civilians in occupied zones while what remains of the professional Russian army reorganises and sent to the front.

Notable that there are no air assets over or around the area at the moment. Transponders inactive?

Russia did it, I think. The US has no further reason to, given the Russians stopped supplying and the Germans are weaning themselves off Russia.

The US threatened to stop Nordstream 2 supplying Europe back in February, I think it was. No specifics were given as to how they would stop it going ahead.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-scholz-announce-united-approach-to-deterring-russian-aggression

Expect all gas pipelines out of Norway, to the UK and Europe, to also fail mysteriously. Possibly some fibre cables will be severed also. I think the Nordstream sabotage is an open threat. Europe is going to absolutely freeze this winter. Russia has cut it's own supplies and will now cut everyone elses gas supplies as well.

It's a perfect mechanism for them because they so love the implausible, plausible deniability game, such as when one of their BUKs operated by their little green men, shoots down a civillian airliner full of westerners.

I have stocked up on whiskey with all this nuclear bomb apocalypse talk and champagne in case of putins death/removal. That is the scope of my chess moves/pieces/strategy.

Also, I've tracked a number of German C-17 flights into Estonian over a number of hours. They're moving something.

There is a Turkish AWACS operating in the area at the moment, plus two RAF refuelling aircraft over the Baltics, where the Amphibious Task Force is just outside the Kaliningrad Economic Zone. ( position given away by the short Seahawk flights that appear now and again.

This actually happened in the early years of the Putin presidency (2000 onwards) and the assumption was that he might move to being a peaceful coexister with western Europe and not give them any problems. He seemed to start changing in personality from around 2010 onwards though and by 2014 he was in full on 'unpleasant troublemaker' mode.

I guess the 22 years in power as President / PM have totally corrupted him and he has gone totally over to the dark side.

Again, makes sense to do this.

The question is, does the west want to be caught on the hop like back in February?

The reality is, Putin needs to knows, should he proceed, what's waiting for him.

You have to think from Russia's point of view, not yours.

The US/ NATO certainly doesn't need to use nuclear weapons to destroy everything they want in Russia... But if Russia uses a nuclear weapon and the US then doesn't it would show them as weak as far as the likes of China are concerned.

There is always the French or UK weapons which are presumably smaller bangs if it's done under the banner of NATO rather than the US.